Bayesian Conditional Cointegration

Cointegration is an important topic for time-series, and describes a relationship between two series in which a linear combination is stationary. Classically, the test for cointegration is based on a two stage process in which first the linear relation between the series is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares. Subsequently a unit root test is performed on the residuals. A well-known deficiency of this classical approach is that it can lead to erroneous conclusions about the presence of cointegration. As an alternative, we present a framework for estimating whether cointegration exists using Bayesian inference which is empirically superior to the classical approach. Finally, we apply our technique to model segmented cointegration in which cointegration may exist only for limited time. In contrast to previous approaches our model makes no restriction on the number of possible cointegration segments.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012

Improved Methods for Electroplating Cadmium Sulfide Thin Films

We report improved methods for electroplating cadmium sulfide (CMS) films. Aprevious problem was cracking/flaking of films deposited from organic solutions of elemental sulfur; attempts to improve adhesion via bath additives reduced grain size. Aqueous baths of thiosulfate ions yield cadmium-richness at low T temperatures (T), long deposition times, and/or poor bath stability. Developments in our work to be discussed include (1) plating ofuniform, adherent, and stoichiometric CdS from tetraethylene baths of CdCl 2 and elemental sulfur at T \u3e70° C with minimal cracking/flaking, (2) improved uniformity/ adherence by use of CdL\u3e, and (3) swept voltage methods in aqueous thiosulfate baths to plate stoichiometric (vs. Cd-rich) films near room temperature

Exploring the Impact of Patient and Public Involvement in a Cancer Research Setting

An enduring theme in the literature exploring patient and public involvement (PPI) in research has been the focus on evaluating impact, defined usually in terms of participants’ practical contribution to enhancing research processes. By contrast, there has been less emphasis on the perspectives and experiences of those involved in PPI. Drawing on qualitative data with people involved in the National Cancer Research Network in the United Kingdom, we report on what motivated participants to get involved and their experiences of involvement in this setting. We highlight how those involved in PPI often espoused the notion of the “good citizen,” with PPI in research being a natural extension of their wider civic interests. However, our findings also highlight how PPI was an important resource, utilized by participants to make sense of living with chronic illness. We suggest that PPI in research also offers spaces for the reconfiguration of self and identity

Electrodeposition of Copper Indium Sulfide Films from Organic Solutions

We report on organic solutions ofCuCl 2 ,InClg, and elemental sulfur for electrodepositing CuIn x Sv films. CuInS 2 and CuInSe 2 are promising solar cellmaterials; our work on CuInSg prefaces planned work on plating CuInSe 2 from nonaqueous solvents. Two promising solvent systems are (1) mixed propylcne carbonate and water and (2) mixed ethylene glycol, propionic acid, and water (Engelken et al., 1988). Gray-brown films ofCuInx Sy (nominally GuInS2 ) have been plated from both baths. Major problems include (1) reduction ofCu+2 to Cu and Cu x S by the solvent at high temperatures (T\u3el()0°C), hence depleting Cu+2,(2) poor adherence/uniformity, (3) controlling stoichiometry, and (4) sluggish indium deposition. The paper willdiscuss our routes to solving these problems and present filmdata

Preparation of Powder Precursors and Evaporation of Photoconductive Indium Sulfide Films

We have demonstrated significant photoconductance in indium sulfide thin films prepared by thermal vacuum evaporation ofIn2$3 powders synthesized in-house by chemical precipitation ofInCl3 or In(CH3COO)3, and (NH4)2S or Na2S. The Delta G lambda/Gdark values have been as high as 0.1 in the initial unoptimized films. Excess sulfur (via a mixture of polysulfide and sulfide ions in the synthesis bath) appears to be important in achieving reproducible and large photoconductivities. In2S3 is particularly attractive as a lower toxicity alternative to CdS in optoelectronic applications such as photovoltaic and photoconductive cells

Factors that are associated with the risk of acquiring Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Sabah, Malaysia: a case-control study protocol

Introduction Plasmodium knowlesi has long been present in Malaysia, and is now an emerging cause of zoonotic human malaria. Cases have been confirmed throughout South-East Asia where the ranges of its natural macaque hosts and Anopheles leucosphyrus group vectors overlap. The majority of cases are from Eastern Malaysia, with increasing total public health notifications despite a concurrent reduction in Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria. The public health implications are concerning given P. knowlesi has the highest risk of severe and fatal disease of all Plasmodium spp in Malaysia. Current patterns of risk and disease vary based on vector type and competence, with individual exposure risks related to forest and forest-edge activities still poorly defined. Clustering of cases has not yet been systematically evaluated despite reports of peri-domestic transmission and known vector competence for human-to-human transmission.Methods and analysis A population-based case–control study will be conducted over a 2-year period at two adjacent districts in north-west Sabah, Malaysia. Confirmed malaria cases presenting to the district hospital sites meeting relevant inclusion criteria will be requested to enrol. Three community controls matched to the same village as the case will be selected randomly. Study procedures will include blood sampling and administration of household and individual questionnaires to evaluate potential exposure risks associated with acquisition of P. knowlesi malaria. Secondary outcomes will include differences in exposure variables between P. knowlesi and other Plasmodium spp, risk of severe P. knowlesi malaria, and evaluation of P. knowlesi case clustering. Primary analysis will be per protocol, with adjusted ORs for exposure risks between cases and controls calculated using conditional multiple logistic regression models.Ethics This study has been approved by the human research ethics committees of Malaysia, the Menzies School of Health Research, Australia, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

University for the Creative Arts staff research 2011

This publication brings together a selection of the University’s current research. The contributions foreground areas of research strength including still and moving image research, applied arts and crafts, as well as emerging fields of investigations such as design and architecture. It also maps thematic concerns across disciplinary areas that focus on models and processes of creative practice, value formations and processes of identification through art and artefacts as well as cross-cultural connectivity. Dr. Seymour Roworth-Stoke