State-space models' dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (\textit{Ursus maritimus}) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results

Uncertainties of the Inclusive Higgs Production Cross Section at the Tevatron and the LHC

We study uncertainties of the predicted inclusive Higgs production cross section due to the uncertainties of parton distribution functions (PDF). Particular attention is given to bbH Yukawa coupling enhanced production mechanisms in beyond SM scenarios, such as MSSM. The PDF uncertainties are determined by the robust Lagrange Multiplier method within the CTEQ global analysis framework. We show that PDF uncertainties dominate over theoretical uncertainties of the perturbative calculation (usually estimated by the scale dependence of the calculated cross sections), except for low Higgs masses at LHC. Thus for the proper interpretation of any Higgs signal, and for better understanding of the underlying electroweak symmetry breaking mechanism, it is important to gain better control of the uncertainties of the PDFs.Comment: LaTeX, JHEP, 19 pages, 14 figure

Quantum discrete Dubrovin equations

The discrete equations of motion for the quantum mappings of KdV type are given in terms of the Sklyanin variables (which are also known as quantum separated variables). Both temporal (discrete-time) evolutions and spatial (along the lattice at a constant time-level) evolutions are considered. In the classical limit, the temporal equations reduce to the (classical) discrete Dubrovin equations as given in a previous publication. The reconstruction of the original dynamical variables in terms of the Sklyanin variables is also achieved.Comment: 25 page

Do UK universities communicate their brands effectively through their websites?

This paper attempts to explore the effectiveness of UK universities’ websites. The area of branding in higher education has received increasing academic investigation, but little work has researched how universities demonstrate their brand promises through their websites. The quest to differentiate through branding can be challenging in the university context, however. It is argued that those institutions that have a strong distinctive image will be in a better position to face a changing future. Employing a multistage methodology, the web pages of twenty UK universities were investigated by using a combination of content and multivariable analysis. Results indicated ‘traditional values’ such as teaching and research were often well communicated in terms of online brand but ‘emotional values’ like social responsibility and the universities’ environments were less consistently communicated, despite their increased topicality. It is therefore suggested that emotional values may offer a basis for possible future online differentiation

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Toward Identifying the Next Generation of Superfund and Hazardous Waste Site Contaminants

Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives."This commentary evolved from a workshop sponsored by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences titled "Superfund Contaminants: The Next Generation" held in Tucson, Arizona, in August 2009. All the authors were workshop participants." doi:10.1289/ehp.1002497Our aim was to initiate a dynamic, adaptable process for identifying contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) that are likely to be found in future hazardous waste sites, and to identify the gaps in primary research that cause uncertainty in determining future hazardous waste site contaminants. Superfund-relevant CECs can be characterized by specific attributes: they are persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic, occur in large quantities, and have localized accumulation with a likelihood of exposure. Although still under development and incompletely applied, methods to quantify these attributes can assist in winnowing down the list of candidates from the universe of potential CECs. Unfortunately, significant research gaps exist in detection and quantification, environmental fate and transport, health and risk assessment, and site exploration and remediation for CECs. Addressing these gaps is prerequisite to a preventive approach to generating and managing hazardous waste sites.Support for the workshop, from which this article evolved, was provided by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Superfund Research Program (P42-ES04940)

A systematic review of physiological methods in rodent pharmacological MRI studies

Rationale: Pharmacological magnetic resonance imaging (phMRI) provides an approach to study effects of drug challenges on brain processes. Elucidating mechanisms of drug action helps us to better understand the workings of neurotransmitter systems, map brain function or facilitate drug development. phMRI is increasingly used in preclinical research employing rodent models; however, data interpretation and integration are complicated by the use of different experimental approaches between laboratories. In particular, the effects of different anaesthetic regimes upon neuronal and haemodynamic processes and baseline physiology could be problematic. Objectives: This paper investigates how differences in phMRI research methodologies are manifested and considers associated implications, placing particular emphasis on choice of anaesthetic regimes. Methods: A systematic review of rodent phMRI studies was conducted. Factors such as those describing anaesthetic regimes (e.g. agent, dosage) and parameters relating to physiological maintenance (e.g. ventilatory gases) and MRI method were recorded. Results: We identified 126 eligible studies and found that the volatile agents isoflurane (43.7 %) and halothane (33.3 %) were most commonly used for anaesthesia, but dosage and mixture of ventilatory gases varied substantially between laboratories. Relevant physiological parameters were usually recorded, although 32 % of studies did not provide cardiovascular measures. Conclusions: Anaesthesia and animal preparation can influence phMRI data profoundly. The variation of anaesthetic type, dosage regime and ventilatory gases makes consolidation of research findings (e.g. within a specific neurotransmitter system) difficult. Standardisation of a small(er) number of preclinical phMRI research methodologies and/or increased consideration of approaches that do not require anaesthesia is necessary to address these challenges

Comparing Historical and Contemporary Observations of Avian Fauna on the Yáláƛi (Goose Island) Archipelago, British Columbia, Canada

In an era of global change, historical natural history data can improve our understanding of ecological phenomena, particularly when evaluated with contemporary Indigenous and place‐based knowledge. The Yáláƛi (Goose Island) Archipelago is a group of islands in Heiltsuk (Haíɫzaqv) territory on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. Not only has this region been important to the Heiltsuk for millennia but also it is both a federally and internationally recognized important bird area. In this study, we compare data collected by Charles J. Guiguet, a biologist who documented bird communities at Yáláƛi in the summer of 1948, to three different contemporary surveys and to citizen‐science data. We find that the relative abundances of forest bird species (i.e., birds that use the terrestrial island ecosystems) in 1948 differed to those observed in systematic surveys in 2011. While Orange‐crowned Warblers, Dark‐eyed Juncos, and Red Crossbills comprised 55% of detections by Guiguet in 1948, the three most abundant species in 2011 were Bald Eagles, Varied Thrushes, and Pacific Wrens, and these accounted for only 25% of detections. Although we could not make a quantitative comparison, we provide summaries of each species observed in surveys or reported on eBird. We also incorporate Heiltsuk place‐based knowledge to enrich our discussion of the variability in bird communities over time, from how changes in mammal communities and human use may have shaped vegetation dynamics to how large‐scale natural phenomena impacted topography. To understand which birds are present and how their communities are changing over time, we recommend continued monitoring of the bird communities at Yáláƛi

Interactive effects of grazing and burning on wind- and water-driven sediment fluxes: Rangeland management implications

Rangelands are globally extensive, provide fundamental ecosystem services, and are tightly coupled human-ecological systems. Rangeland sustainability depends largely on the implementation and utilization of various grazing and burning practices optimized to protect against soil erosion and transport. In many cases, however, land management practices lead to increased soil erosion and sediment fluxes for reasons that are poorly understood. Because few studies have directly measured both wind and water erosion and transport, an assessment of how they may differentially respond to grazing and burning practices is lacking. Here, we report simultaneous, co-located estimates of wind- and water-driven sediment transport in a semiarid grassland in Arizona, USA, over three years for four land management treatments: control, grazed, burned, and burned + grazed. For all treatments and most years, annual rates of wind-driven sediment transport exceeded that of water due to a combination of ongoing small but nontrivial wind events and larger, less frequent, wind events that generally preceded the monsoon season. Sediment fluxes by both wind and water differed consistently by treatment: burned + grazed > burned >> grazed >/= control, with effects immediately apparent after burning but delayed after grazing until the following growing season. Notably, the wind: water sediment transport ratio decreased following burning but increased following grazing. Our results show how rangeland practices disproportionally alter sediment fluxes driven by wind and water, differences that could potentially help explain divergence between rangeland sustainability and degradation.Peer reviewedNatural Resource Ecology and Managemen