The recent expansion of an avian invasive species (the Cattle Egret Ardea ibis) in Algeria

This study identifies new information on the recent distribution of an invasive bird species, the Cattle Egret Ardea ibis, in Algeria. Breeding and wintering distributions as well as breeding numbers were obtained from large-scale surveys in 1999 and 2007, and from historical data. Between 1999 and 2007, the total number of colonies found increased from 51 to 87, and most were located in the northern part of the country. The breeding distribution area, confined to the coastal areas in the 1970s, has shifted further south, and reached the northern part of the Sahara since the 2000s. Most colonies were established during the period 1980-1995. The oldest colonies were generally larger than the recent ones. The number of colonies increased by 83% between 1999 and 2007 in the 12 administrative units (wilayas) surveyed. The number of breeding pairs increased from 7765 in 1999 to 28544 in 2007, corresponding to an annual population growth rate of 17.7%. The changes in distribution and population dynamics since the 1970s and the potential factors affecting these changes are discussed

Natal dispersal and diving behaviour ontogeny in juvenile Emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri from Adélie Land

第3回極域科学シンポジウム/第34回極域生物シンポジウム 11月26日（月） 統計数理研究所 ３階セミナー

Mapping and assessing variability in the Antarctic marginal ice zone, pack ice and coastal polynyas in two sea ice algorithms with implications on breeding success of snow petrels

© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in The Cryosphere 10 (2016): 1823-1843, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1823-2016.Sea ice variability within the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and polynyas plays an important role for phytoplankton productivity and krill abundance. Therefore, mapping their spatial extent as well as seasonal and interannual variability is essential for understanding how current and future changes in these biologically active regions may impact the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Knowledge of the distribution of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas in the total Antarctic sea ice cover may also help to shed light on the factors contributing towards recent expansion of the Antarctic ice cover in some regions and contraction in others. The long-term passive microwave satellite data record provides the longest and most consistent record for assessing the proportion of the sea ice cover that is covered by each of these ice categories. However, estimates of the amount of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and polynyas depend strongly on which sea ice algorithm is used. This study uses two popular passive microwave sea ice algorithms, the NASA Team and Bootstrap, and applies the same thresholds to the sea ice concentrations to evaluate the distribution and variability in the MIZ, the consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas. Results reveal that the seasonal cycle in the MIZ and pack ice is generally similar between both algorithms, yet the NASA Team algorithm has on average twice the MIZ and half the consolidated pack ice area as the Bootstrap algorithm. Trends also differ, with the Bootstrap algorithm suggesting statistically significant trends towards increased pack ice area and no statistically significant trends in the MIZ. The NASA Team algorithm on the other hand indicates statistically significant positive trends in the MIZ during spring. Potential coastal polynya area and amount of broken ice within the consolidated ice pack are also larger in the NASA Team algorithm. The timing of maximum polynya area may differ by as much as 5 months between algorithms. These differences lead to different relationships between sea ice characteristics and biological processes, as illustrated here with the breeding success of an Antarctic seabird.This work is funded under NASA grant NNX14AH74G and NSF grant PLR 1341548

Demographic consequences of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants in a vulnerable long-lived bird, the wandering albatross

International audienceSeabirds are top predators of the marine environment that accumulate contaminants over a long life-span. Chronic exposure to pollutants is thought to compromise survival rate and long-term reproductive outputs in these long-lived organisms, thus inducing population decline. However, the demographic consequences of contaminant exposure are largely theoretical because of the dearth of long-term datasets. This study aims to test whether adult survival rate, return to the colony and long-term breeding performance were related to blood mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), by using a capture–mark–recapture dataset on the vulnerable wandering albatross Diomedea exulans. We did not find evidence for any effect of contaminants on adult survival probability. However, blood Hg and POPs negatively impacted long-term breeding probability, hatching and fledging probabilities. The proximate mechanisms underlying these deleterious effects are likely multifaceted, through physiological perturbations and interactions with reproductive costs. Using matrix population models, we projected a demographic decline in response to an increase in Hg or POPs concentrations. This decline in population growth rate could be exacerbated by other anthropogenic perturbations, such as climate change, disease and fishery bycatch. This study gives a new dimension to the overall picture of environmental threats to wildlife populations

Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio : a periodic two‐sex model approach

Author Posting. © University of Chicago, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of University of Chicago for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in American Naturalist 175 (2010): 739-752, doi:10.1086/652436.We present a new approach to modeling two‐sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two‐sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency‐dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two‐sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.H.C. acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (DEB-0343820 and DEB-0816514) and the Ocean Life Institute and the hospitality of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Using self-organizing maps to investigate environmental factors regulating colony size and breeding success of the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

We studied variations in the size of breeding colonies and in breeding performance of White Storks Ciconia ciconia in 2006–2008 in north-east Algeria. Each colony site was characterized using 12 environmental variables describing the physical environment, land-cover categories, and human activities, and by three demographic parameters: the number of breeding pairs, the number of pairs with chicks, and the number of fledged chicks per pair. Generalized linear mixed models and the self-organizing map algorithm (SOM, neural network) were used to investigate effects of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors on demographic parameters and on their relationships. Numbers of breeding pairs and of pairs with chicks were affected by the same environmental factors, mainly anthropogenic, which differed from those affecting the number of fledged chicks per pair. Numbers of fledged chicks per pair was not affected by colony size or by the number of nests with chicks. The categorization of the environmental variables into natural and anthropogenic, in connection with demographic parameters, was relevant to detect factors explaining variation in colony size and breeding parameters. The SOM proved a relevant tool to help determine actual dynamics in White Stork colonies, and thus to support effective conservation decisions at a regional scale

Assessing the Impact of Bycatch on Dolphin Populations: The Case of the Common Dolphin in the Eastern North Atlantic

Fisheries interactions have been implicated in the decline of many marine vertebrates worldwide. In the eastern North Atlantic, at least 1000 common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) are bycaught each year, particularly in pelagic pair-trawls. We have assessed the resulting impact of bycatch on this population using a demographic modeling approach. We relied on a sample of females stranded along the French Atlantic and western Channel coasts. Strandings represent an extensive source of demographic information to monitor our study population. Necropsy analysis provided an estimate of individual age and reproductive state. Then we estimated effective survivorship (including natural and human-induced mortality), age at first reproduction and pregnancy rates. Reproductive parameters were consistent with literature, but effective survivorship was unexpectedly low. Demographic parameters were then used as inputs in two models. A constant parameter matrix proposed an effective growth rate of −5.5±0.5%, corresponding to the current situation (including bycatch mortality). Subsequently, deterministic projections suggested that the population would be reduced to 20% of its current size in 30 years and would be extinct in 100 years. The demographic invariant model suggested a maximum growth rate of +4.5±0.09%, corresponding to the optimal demographic situation. Then, a risk analysis incorporating Potential Biological Removal (PBR), based on two plausible scenarii for stock structure suggested that bycatch level was unsustainable for the neritic population of the Bay of Biscay under a two-stock scenario. In depth assessment of stock structure and improved observer programs to provide scientifically robust bycatch estimates are needed. Effective conservation measures would be reducing bycatch to less than 50% of the current level in the neritic stock to reach PBR. Our approach provided indicators of the status and trajectory of the common dolphin population in the eastern North Atlantic and therefore proved to be a valuable tool for management, applicable to other dolphin populations

Emperor Penguins on Thin Sea Ice

Emperor penguins are tough birds that breed on sea ice, which is the frozen surface of the ocean. They are famous for walking across the sea ice, to and from the open ocean, to get food for their chicks. Their bodies and behaviors help them live in the cold, dark winters of Antarctica. However, though they live far away from people, human actions are not always good for emperor penguins. Humans are causing the world to warm. With warmer temperatures, sea ice around Antarctica will melt. For emperor penguins, this means their homes might disappear. We know so much about emperor penguins because scientists and explorers have been studying them for over 70 years. In this article, we will tell you about what is likely to happen to emperor penguins—and what their future can tell us about our own future