Control variates for stochastic gradient MCMC

It is well known that Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods scale poorly with dataset size. A popular class of methods for solving this issue is stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC). These methods use a noisy estimate of the gradient of the log-posterior, which reduces the per iteration computational cost of the algorithm. Despite this, there are a number of results suggesting that stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), probably the most popular of these methods, still has computational cost proportional to the dataset size. We suggest an alternative log-posterior gradient estimate for stochastic gradient MCMC which uses control variates to reduce the variance. We analyse SGLD using this gradient estimate, and show that, under log-concavity assumptions on the target distribution, the computational cost required for a given level of accuracy is independent of the dataset size. Next we show that a different control variate technique, known as zero variance control variates, can be applied to SGMCMC algorithms for free. This post-processing step improves the inference of the algorithm by reducing the variance of the MCMC output. Zero variance control variates rely on the gradient of the log-posterior; we explore how the variance reduction is affected by replacing this with the noisy gradient estimate calculated by SGMCMC

A Dual TLR Agonist Adjuvant Enhances the Immunogenicity and Protective Efficacy of the Tuberculosis Vaccine Antigen ID93

With over eight million cases of tuberculosis each year there is a pressing need for the development of new vaccines against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Subunit vaccines consisting of recombinant proteins are an attractive vaccine approach due to their inherent safety compared to attenuated live vaccines and the uniformity of manufacture. Addition of properly formulated TLR agonist-containing adjuvants to recombinant protein vaccines enhances the antigen-specific CD4+ T cell response characterized by IFN-γ and TNF, both of which are critical for the control of TB. We have developed a clinical stage vaccine candidate consisting of a recombinant fusion protein ID93 adjuvanted with the TLR4 agonist GLA-SE. Here we examine whether ID93+GLA-SE can be improved by the addition of a second TLR agonist. Addition of CpG containing DNA to ID93+GLA-SE enhanced the magnitude of the multi-functional TH1 response against ID93 characterized by co-production of IFN-γ, TNF, and IL-2. Addition of CpG also improved the protective efficacy of ID93+GLA-SE. Finally we demonstrate that this adjuvant synergy between GLA and CpG is independent of TRIF signaling, whereas TRIF is necessary for the adjuvant activity of GLA-SE in the absence of CpG

Trends in the Association of Parental History of Obesity over 60 Years

Objective: The association of familial as compared to genetic factors in the current obesogenic environment, compared to earlier, leaner time periods, is uncertain. Design and Methods Participants from the Framingham Heart Study were classified according to parental obesity status in the Original, Offspring, and Third Generation cohorts; mean BMI levels were estimated and we compared the association of parental history across generations. Finally, a genetic risk score comprised of 32 well-replicated single nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI was examined in association with BMI levels in 1948, 1971, and 2002. Results: BMI was 1.49 kg/m2 higher per each affected parent among the Offspring, and increased to 2.09 kg/m2 higher among the Third Generation participants (p-value for the cohort comparison=0.007). Parental history of obesity was associated with increased weight gain (p<0.0001) and incident obesity (p=0.009). Despite a stronger association of parental obesity with offspring BMI in more contemporary time periods, we observed no change in the effect size of a BMI genetic risk score from 1948 to 2002 (p=0.11 for test of trend across the time periods). Conclusions: The association of parental obesity has become stronger in more contemporary time period, whereas the association of a BMI genetic risk score has not changed

An Early and Comprehensive Millimetre and Centimetre Wave and X-ray Study of SN 2011dh: a Non-Equipartition Blast Wave Expanding into a Massive Stellar Wind

Only a handful of supernovae (SNe) have been studied in multiwavelengths from the radio to X-rays, starting a few days after the explosion. The early detection and classification of the nearby Type IIb SN 2011dh/PTF 11eon in M51 provides a unique opportunity to conduct such observations. We present detailed data obtained at one of the youngest phase ever of a core-collapse SN (days 3–12 after the explosion) in the radio, millimetre and X-rays; when combined with optical data, this allows us to explore the early evolution of the SN blast wave and its surroundings. Our analysis shows that the expanding SN shock wave does not exhibit equipartition (ϵe/ϵB ∼ 1000), and is expanding into circumstellar material that is consistent with a density profile falling like R−2. Within modelling uncertainties we find an average velocity of the fast parts of the ejecta of 15 000 ± 1800 km s−1, contrary to previous analysis. This velocity places SN 2011dh in an intermediate blast wave regime between the previously defined compact and extended SN Type IIb subtypes. Our results highlight the importance of early (∼1 d) high-frequency observations of future events. Moreover, we show the importance of combined radio/X-ray observations for determining the microphysics ratio ϵe/ϵB

Identification of a Likely Radio Counterpart of the Rapid Burster

We have identified a likely radio counterpart to the low-mass X-ray binary MXB 1730-335 (the Rapid Burster). The counterpart has shown 8.4 GHz radio on/off behavior correlated with the X-ray on/off behavior as observed by the RXTE/ASM during six VLA observations. The probability of an unrelated, randomly varying background source duplicating this behavior is 1-3% depending on the correlation time scale. The location of the radio source is RA 17h 33m 24.61s; Dec -33d 23' 19.8" (J2000), +/- 0.1". We do not detect 8.4 GHz radio emission coincident with type II (accretion-driven) X-ray bursts. The ratio of radio to X-ray emission during such bursts is constrained to be below the ratio observed during X-ray persistent emission at the 2.9-sigma level. Synchrotron bubble models of the radio emission can provide a reasonable fit to the full data set, collected over several outbursts, assuming that the radio evolution is the same from outburst to outburst, but given the physical constraints the emission is more likely to be due to ~hour-long radio flares such as have been observed from the X-ray binary GRS 1915+105.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in ApJ (no changes