SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis

In this paper, we describe a new multicountry open economy SDGE model named "SIGMA" that we have developed as a quantitative tool for policy analysis. We compare SIGMA's implications to those of an estimated large-scale econometric policy model (the FRB/Global model) for an array of shocks that are often examined in policy simulations. We show that SIGMA's implications for the near-term responses of key variables are generally similar to those of FRB/Global. Nevertheless, some quantitative disparities between the two models remain due to certain restrictive aspects of SIGMA's optimization-based framework. We conclude by using long-term simulations to illustrate some areas of comparative advantage of our SDGE modeling framework.

The expectations trap hypothesis

This article explores a hypothesis about the take-off in inflation in the early 1970s. According to the expectations trap hypothesis, the Fed was driven to high money growth by a fear of violating the expectations of high inflation that existed at the time. The authors argue that this hypothesis is more compelling than the Phillips curve hypothesis, according to which the Fed produced the high inflation as an unfortunate by product of a conscious decision to jump start a weak economy.Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve

The expectations trap hypothesis

The authors examine the inflation take-off of the early 1970s in terms of the expectations trap hypothesis, according to which fear of violating the public’s inflation expectations pushed the Fed into producing high inflation. This interpretation is compared with the Phillips curve hypothesis, according to which the Fed produced high inflation as the unfortunate byproduct of a conscious decision to jump-start a weak economy. Which hypothesis is more plausible has important implications for what should be done to prevent future inflation flare-ups.Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve ; Economic conditions - United States

Taylor rules in a limited participation model

The authors use the limited participation model of money to study Taylor rules' operating characteristics for setting the interest rate. Rules are evaluated according to their ability to protect the economy from bad outcomes like the burst of inflation observed in the 1970s. On the basis of their analysis, the authors argue for a rule that 1) raises the nominal interest rate more than one-for-one with a rise in inflation; and 2) does not change the interest rate in response to a change in output relative to trend.Monetary policy ; Interest rates

The adjustment of global external balances: does partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices matter?

This paper assesses whether partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices has important implications for the prospective adjustment of global external imbalances. To address this question, we develop and estimate an open-economy DGE model in which pass-through is incomplete due to the presence of local currency pricing, distribution services, and a variable demand elasticity that leads to fluctuations in optimal markups. We find that the overall magnitude of trade adjustment is similar in a low and high pass-through world with more adjustment in a low pass-world occurring through a larger response of the exchange rate and terms of trade rather than real trade flows.Foreign exchange rates ; Imports - Prices

Productivity developments abroad

This article reviews recent productivity trends in foreign industrial countries. The focus of the analysis is on whether productivity abroad has accelerated to an extent comparable to that observed in the United States. The authors find that foreign labor productivity, unlike that of the United States, has not accelerated in the latter half of the 1990s and discuss the role played by information technology in influencing foreign productivity trends as well as cyclical and methodological factors that are important in the analysis of these trends.Productivity ; Information technology ; Labor productivity

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under which will it have the opposite effects? The authors answer these questions in a general class of open-economy models, modeling a financial crisis as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. They find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded goods sector and the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing drop in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.Financial crises ; Monetary policy ; Interest rates

Monetary Policy in an International Financial Crisis

We explore the role of monetary policy in the aftermath of a financial crisis. We develop a small open economy model with limited participation of households in a financial intermediary that provides liquidity to satisfy firms' working capital needs. Firms require two forms of working capital: domestic funds to pay for the wage bill and foreign funds to finance imports of intermediate goods. A shortage of either one of the sources of working capital acts as a drag on economic activity. In normal times, an interest rate cut is expansionary. In a financial crisis, collateral constraints bind and an expansion of domestic liquidity leads to a real exchange rate depreciation that further tightens the collateral constraint and offsets the traditional (expansionary) liquidity channel. In addition, the tightening of the collateral constraint places a premium on paying off foreign debt, reinforcing the contractionary effects of an interest rate cut. We study the conditions under which such monetary policy action is contractionary and relate them to recent emerging market crises.

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modeled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.Monetary policy ; Financial crises

Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite e ffects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modeled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.