Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada

The output gap - the deviation of output from potential output - has played an important role in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada. This paper reviews the Bank of Canada's definition of potential output, as well as the use of the output gap in monetary policy. Using a real-time staff economic projection dataset from 1994 through 2005, a period during which the staff used the Quarterly Projection Model to construct economic projections, the authors investigate the relationship between shocks (data revisions or real-time projection errors) and revisions to projections of key macroeconomic variables. Of particular interest are the interactions between shocks to real gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation and revisions to the level of potential output, potential growth, the output gap, and real GDP growth.Economic development ; Economic conditions - Canada

Coping Strategies and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Post-ICU Family Decision Makers*

OBJECTIVE: To assess the coping strategies used by family decision makers of adult critical care patients during and after the critical care experience and the relationship of coping strategies to posttraumatic stress symptoms experienced 60 days after hospitalization. DESIGN: A single-group descriptive longitudinal correlational study. SETTING: Medical, surgical, and neurological ICUs in a large tertiary care university hospital. PATIENTS: Consecutive family decision makers of adult critical care patients from August 2012 to November 2013. Study inclusion occurred after the patient's fifth day in the ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Family decision makers of incapacitated adult ICU patients completed the Brief COPE instrument assessing coping strategy use 5 days after ICU admission and 30 days after hospital discharge or death of the patient and completed the Impact of Event Scale-Revised assessing post-traumatic stress symptoms 60 days after hospital discharge. Seventy-seven family decision makers of the eligible 176 completed all data collection time points of this study. The use of problem-focused (p = 0.01) and emotion-focused (p < 0.01) coping decreased over time while avoidant coping (p = 0.20) use remained stable. Coping strategies 30 days after hospitalization (R(2) = 0.50, p < 0.001) were better predictors of later posttraumatic stress symptoms than coping strategies 5 days after ICU admission (R(2) = 0.30, p = 0.001) controlling for patient and decision-maker characteristics. The role of decision maker for a parent and patient death were the only noncoping predictors of post-traumatic stress symptoms. Avoidant coping use 30 days after hospitalization mediated the relationship between patient death and later posttraumatic stress symptom severity. CONCLUSIONS: Coping strategy use is a significant predictor of posttraumatic stress symptom severity 60 days after hospitalization in family decision makers of ICU patients

Minor Ion and Electron Characteristics within Magnetosheath Flux Transfer Events Observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Several dayside magnetosheath flux transfer events (FTEs) have been observed at high temporal resolution by the four-spacecraft MMS mission. In this study, we examine ion energy spectrograms, ion moments, and ion distribution functions for several long duration magnetosheath FTEs observed by MMS. For these cases, the spacecraft were positioned at similar locations (i.e., south of the equatorial plane, post-noon local time sector). The ion observations are placed in context with electron energy spectrograms parallel and anti-parallel to the observed magnetic field and the location of MMS relative to the predicted reconnection line location as determined from convected solar wind conditions. This combined set of observations provide important information on the formation, topologies, and evolution of FTEs.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt; </jats:p

Local kinetic processes determining macroscopic properties of interlinked magnetic flux tubes

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;One of the most important transient phenomena affecting the solar wind-Earth&amp;amp;#8217;s magnetosphere coupling is non-steady dayside magnetic reconnection, observationally evidenced by a transient structure consisting of a bipolar magnetic-field component normal to the magnetopause. This signature, termed a flux-transfer-event (FTE), has been recently found to often consist of two interlinked flux tubes. The recent observations, particularly from the MMS spacecraft, showed a reconnecting current sheet between the interlaced flux tubes.&amp;amp;#160;However, local kinetic processes between the flux tubes have not been understood&amp;amp;#160;in the context of the broader FTE structure and evolution. An FTE observed by&amp;amp;#160;MMS on 18 December, 2017 comprised two flux tubes of different topology. One includes field lines with their ends connected to the northern and southern hemispheres while the other includes field lines that are connected to the magnetosheath (and ultimately the Sun). Evidence for reconnection occurring at the interface of the two flux tubes indicates how interacting flux tubes evolve into a flux rope having helical magnetic topology connecting either both to the Earth or being completely open. This study&amp;amp;#160;proposes a new aspect of&amp;amp;#160;how micro-to-meso-scale dynamics occurring within FTEs determines the macroscale characteristics and evolution of the structures.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt; </jats:p

Sequential Observations of Flux Transfer Events, Poleward-Moving Auroral Forms, and Polar Cap Patches

We report the observation of solar wind‐magnetosphere‐ionosphere interactions using a series of flux transfer events (FTEs) observed by Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission located near the dayside magnetopause on 18 December 2017. The FTEs were observed to propagate duskward and either southward or slightly northward, as predicted under duskward and southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The Cooling model also predicted a significant dawnward propagation of northward‐moving FTEs. Near the MMS footprint, a series of poleward‐moving auroral forms (PMAFs) occurred almost simultaneously with those FTEs. They propagated poleward and westward, consistent with the modeled FTE propagation. The intervals between FTEs, relatively consistent with those between PMAFs, strongly suggest a one‐to‐one correspondence between the dayside transients and ionospheric responses. The FTEs embedded in continuous reconnection observed by MMS and corresponding PMAFs individually occurred during persistent auroral activity recorded by an all‐sky imager strongly indicate that those FTEs/PMAFs resulted from the temporal modulation of the reconnection rate during continuous reconnection. With the decay of the PMAFs associated with the FTEs, patch‐like plasma density enhancements were detected to form and propagate poleward and then dawnward. Propagation to the dawn was also suggested by the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) convection and Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content data. We relate the temporal variation of the driving solar‐wind and magnetospheric mechanism to that of the high‐latitude and polar ionospheric responses and estimate the response time

The Tandem Reconnection and Cusp Electrodynamics Reconnaissance Satellites (TRACERS) Mission Design

The detailed study of the global characteristics of collisionless magnetic reconnection thatoccurs at the magnetopause will be greatly enhanced by observations of plasma fluxes andfields within the low-altitude cusp region, as sampled by two spacecraft orbiting in tan-dem. The NASA Tandem Reconnection and Cusp Electrodynamics Reconnaissance Satel-lites (TRACERS) mission, a Heliophysics Small Explorer (SMEX) mission, will provide thenecessary observations to enable significant progress to be made on understanding magneticreconnection, especially in terms of its temporal versus spatial characteristics. This paperprovides an overview of the TRACERS mission design and the trade studies conducted forthe optimization of this design.</p