Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

The Relationship between Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and Intrinsic Religiosity in Southern Appalachia

The present exploratory study examined adverse childhood experiences and religiosity in a sample of individuals from Southern Appalachia. Self-reports of childhood adversity and intrinsic religion were obtained from 167 individuals. Results showed that fifty-five percent had not experienced a childhood adversity while forty-three percent had experienced one to five episodes. Although a little under half the sample had one or more adverse experiences, there was no significant relationship between ACEs and intrinsic religion (r= -.037, p= .631). Sex and intrinsic religion were significantly related in that men endorsed the use of intrinsic religiosity more than women (t(165)= -2.28, p= .005)

The Cosmic Infrared Background: Measurements and Implications

The cosmic infrared background records much of the radiant energy released by processes of structure formation that have occurred since the decoupling of matter and radiation following the Big Bang. In the past few years, data from the Cosmic Background Explorer mission provided the first measurements of this background, with additional constraints coming from studies of the attenuation of TeV gamma-rays. At the same time there has been rapid progress in resolving a significant fraction of this background with the deep galaxy counts at infrared wavelengths from the Infrared Space Observatory instruments and at submillimeter wavelengths from the Submillimeter Common User Bolometer Array instrument. This article reviews the measurements of the infrared background and sources contributing to it, and discusses the implications for past and present cosmic processes.Comment: 61 pages, incl. 9 figures, to be published in Annual Reviews of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2001, Vol. 3

Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ART coverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections

Estimating prevalence of distant metastatic breast cancer: a means of filling a data gap

PURPOSE: To develop and validate a method for estimating numbers of people with distant cancer metastases, for evidence-based service planning. METHODS: Estimates were made employing an illness-death model with distant metastatic cancer as the illness state- and site-specific mortality as an outcome, using MIAMOD software. To demonstrate the method, we estimated numbers of females alive in Australia following detection of distant metastatic breast cancer during 1980-2004, using data on patient survival from an Australian population-based cancer registry. We validated these estimates by comparing them with direct prevalence counts. RESULTS: Relative survival at 10 years following detection of distant metastases was low (5-20 %), with better survival experienced by: (1) females where distant metastatic disease was detected at initial diagnosis rather than subsequently (e.g., at recurrence); (2) those diagnosed in more recent calendar years; and (3) younger age groups. For Australian females aged less than 85 years, the modeled cumulative risk of detection of distant metastatic breast cancer (either at initial diagnosis or subsequently) declined over time, but numbers of cases with this history rose from 71 per 100,000 in 1980 to 84 per 100,000 in 2004. The model indicated that there were approximately 3-4 prevalent distant metastatic breast cancer cases for every breast cancer death. Comparison of estimates with direct prevalence counts showed a reasonable level of agreement. CONCLUSIONS: The method is straightforward to apply and we recommend its use for breast and other cancers when registry data are insufficient for direct prevalence counts. This will provide estimates of numbers of people who would need ongoing medical surveillance and care following detection of distant metastase

Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance

This paper derives optimal forecast combinations based on stochastic dominance efficiency (SDE) analysis with differential forecast weights for different quantiles of forecast error distribution. For the optimal forecast combination, SDE will minimize the cumulative density functions of the levels of loss at different quantiles of the forecast error distribution by combining different time-series model-based forecasts. Using two exchange rate series on weekly data for the Japanese yen/US dollar and US dollar/Great Britain pound, we find that the optimal forecast combinations with SDE weights perform better than different forecast selection and combination methods for the majority of the cases at different quantiles of the error distribution. However, there are also some very few cases where some other forecast selection and combination model performs equally well at some quantiles of the forecast error distribution. Different forecasting period and quadratic loss function are used to obtain optimal forecast combinations, and results are robust to these choices. The out-of sample performance of the SDE forecast combinations is also better than that of the other forecast selection and combination models we considered

R2P from Below: Does the British Public View Humanitarian Interventions as Ethical and Effective?

One of the major barriers to the implementation of the Responsibility to Protect principle is the lack of a political will. Public attitudes towards intervention will have a crucial impact on elite willingness to prevent mass atrocities, yet we have little understanding of the factors that influence those attitudes. This article provides the first examination of UK public perceptions about the moral justifiability and effectiveness of humanitarian interventions. The article shows that decisions about justifiability and effectiveness are very different. Attitudes towards justification were more easily explained suggesting that judgements about effectiveness are more contextual and less easily accounted for by individuals’ background characteristics and attitudes. Experiences with both Iraq and Afghanistan have contaminated public perceptions of both the ethics and effectiveness of humanitarian interventions. Although the public is broadly supportive about the justifiability of humanitarian interventions they are extremely sceptical about the likelihood that those interventions will be successful

Cellular Radiosensitivity: How much better do we understand it?

Purpose: Ionizing radiation exposure gives rise to a variety of lesions in DNA that result in genetic instability and potentially tumorigenesis or cell death. Radiation extends its effects on DNA by direct interaction or by radiolysis of H2O that generates free radicals or aqueous electrons capable of interacting with and causing indirect damage to DNA. While the various lesions arising in DNA after radiation exposure can contribute to the mutagenising effects of this agent, the potentially most damaging lesion is the DNA double strand break (DSB) that contributes to genome instability and/or cell death. Thus in many cases failure to recognise and/or repair this lesion determines the radiosensitivity status of the cell. DNA repair mechanisms including homologous recombination (HR) and non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) have evolved to protect cells against DNA DSB. Mutations in proteins that constitute these repair pathways are characterised by radiosensitivity and genome instability. Defects in a number of these proteins also give rise to genetic disorders that feature not only genetic instability but also immunodeficiency, cancer predisposition, neurodegeneration and other pathologies. Conclusions: In the past fifty years our understanding of the cellular response to radiation damage has advanced enormously with insight being gained from a wide range of approaches extending from more basic early studies to the sophisticated approaches used today. In this review we discuss our current understanding of the impact of radiation on the cell and the organism gained from the array of past and present studies and attempt to provide an explanation for what it is that determines the response to radiation

Subtle effects of environmental stress observed in the early life stages of the Common frog, Rana temporaria

Worldwide amphibian populations are declining due to habitat loss, disease and pollution. Vulnerability to environmental contaminants such as pesticides will be dependent on the species, the sensitivity of the ontogenic life stage and hence the timing of exposure and the exposure pathway. Herein we investigated the biochemical tissue ‘fingerprint’ in spawn and early-stage tadpoles of the Common frog, Rana temporaria, using attenuated total reflection- Fourier-transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy with the objective of observing differences in the biochemical constituents of the respective amphibian tissues due to varying water quality in urban and agricultural ponds. Our results demonstrate that levels of stress (marked by biochemical constituents such as glycogen that are involved in compensatory metabolic mechanisms) can be observed in tadpoles present in the pond most impacted by pollution (nutrients and pesticides), but large annual variability masked any inter-site differences in the frog spawn. ATR-FTIR spectroscopy is capable of detecting differences in tadpoles that are present in selected ponds with different levels of environmental perturbation and thus serves as a rapid and cost effective tool in assessing stress-related effects of pollution in a vulnerable class of organism

In silico exploration of Red Sea Bacillus genomes for natural product biosynthetic gene clusters

Background: The increasing spectrum of multidrug-resistant bacteria is a major global public health concern, necessitating discovery of novel antimicrobial agents. Here, members of the genus Bacillus are investigated as a potentially attractive source of novel antibiotics due to their broad spectrum of antimicrobial activities. We specifically focus on a computational analysis of the distinctive biosynthetic potential of Bacillus paralicheniformis strains isolated from the Red Sea, an ecosystem exposed to adverse, highly saline and hot conditions. Results: We report the complete circular and annotated genomes of two Red Sea strains, B. paralicheniformis Bac48 isolated from mangrove mud and B. paralicheniformis Bac84 isolated from microbial mat collected from Rabigh Harbor Lagoon in Saudi Arabia. Comparing the genomes of B. paralicheniformis Bac48 and B. paralicheniformis Bac84 with nine publicly available complete genomes of B. licheniformis and three genomes of B. paralicheniformis, revealed that all of the B. paralicheniformis strains in this study are more enriched in nonribosomal peptides (NRPs). We further report the first computationally identified trans-acyltransferase (trans-AT) nonribosomal peptide synthetase/polyketide synthase (PKS/ NRPS) cluster in strains of this species. Conclusions:B. paralicheniformis species have more genes associated with biosynthesis of antimicrobial bioactive compounds than other previously characterized species of B. licheniformis, which suggests that these species are better potential sources for novel antibiotics. Moreover, the genome of the Red Sea strain B. paralicheniformis Bac48 is more enriched in modular PKS genes compared to B. licheniformis strains and other B. paralicheniformis strains. This may be linked to adaptations that strains surviving in the Red Sea underwent to survive in the relatively hot and saline ecosystems