Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful to guide public policy. This paper discusses the respective weaknesses of typical GIS analysis and typical municipality level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and more useful for policy makers as well.Deforestation, Amazon, Brazil, econometric modeling

Modelling the spinning dust emission from LDN 1780

We study the anomalous microwave emission (AME) in the Lynds Dark Nebula (LDN) 1780 on two angular scales. Using available ancillary data at an angular resolution of 1 degree, we construct an SED between 0.408 GHz to 2997 GHz. We show that there is a significant amount of AME at these angular scales and the excess is compatible with a physical spinning dust model. We find that LDN 1780 is one of the clearest examples of AME on 1 degree scales. We detected AME with a significance > 20$\sigma$. We also find at these angular scales that the location of the peak of the emission at frequencies between 23-70 GHz differs from the one on the 90-3000 GHz map. In order to investigate the origin of the AME in this cloud, we use data obtained with the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA) that provides 2 arcmin resolution at 30 GHz. We study the connection between the radio and IR emissions using morphological correlations. The best correlation is found to be with MIPS 70$\mu$m, which traces warm dust (T$\sim$50K). Finally, we study the difference in radio emissivity between two locations within the cloud. We measured a factor $\approx 6$ of difference in 30 GHz emissivity. We show that this variation can be explained, using the spinning dust model, by a variation on the dust grain size distribution across the cloud, particularly changing the carbon fraction and hence the amount of PAHs.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRA

On the Evolution of CAE Research

Less than a decade ago it seemed that a new paradigm of engineering–called computer-aided engineering (CAE) – was emerging. This emergence was driven in part by the success of computer support for the tasks of engineering analysis and in part by a new understanding of how computational ideas largely rooted in artificial intelligence (AI) could perhaps improve the practice of engineering, especially in the area of design synthesis. However, while this “revolution” has failed to take root or flourish as a separate discipline, it has spawned research that is very different from traditional engineering research. To the extent that such CAE research is different in style and paradigm, it must also be evaluated according to different metrics. Some of the metrics that can be used are suggested, and some of the evaluation issues that remain as open questions are pointed out

Mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA-based phylogeny of Pelargonium (Geraniaceae)

Overall phylogenetic relationships within the genus Pelargonium (Geraniaceae) were inferred based on DNA sequences from mitochondrial(mt)-encoded nad1 b/c exons and from chloroplast(cp)-encoded trnL (UAA) 5' exon-trnF (GAA) exon regions using two species of Geranium and Sarcocaulon vanderetiae as outgroups. The group II intron between nad1 exons b and c was found to be absent from the Pelargonium, Geranium, and Sarcocaulon sequences presented here as well as from Erodium, which is the first recorded loss of this intron in angiosperms. Separate phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA and cpDNA data sets produced largely congruent topologies, indicating linkage between mitochondrial and chloroplast genome inheritance. Simultaneous analysis of the combined data sets yielded a well-resolved topology with high clade support exhibiting a basic split into small and large chromosome species, the first group containing two lineages and the latter three. One large chromosome lineage (x = 11) comprises species from sections Myrrhidium and Chorisma and is sister to a lineage comprising P. mutans (x = 11) and species from section Jenkinsonia (x = 9). Sister to these two lineages is a lineage comprising species from sections Ciconium (x = 9) and Subsucculentia (x = 10). Cladistic evaluation of this pattern suggests that x = 11 is the ancestral basic chromosome number for the genus