Census politics in deeply divided societies

Population censuses in societies that are deeply divided along ethnic, religious or linguistic lines can be sensitive affairs – particularly where political settlements seek to maintain peace through the proportional sharing of power between groups. This brief sets out some key findings from a research project investigating the relationship between census politics and the design of political institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kenya, Lebanon and Northern Ireland

Molecular evolution of HoxA13 and the multiple origins of limbless morphologies in amphibians and reptiles

Developmental processes and their results, morphological characters, are inherited through transmission of genes regulating development. While there is ample evidence that cis-regulatory elements tend to be modular, with sequence segments dedicated to different roles, the situation for proteins is less clear, being particularly complex for transcription factors with multiple functions. Some motifs mediating protein-protein interactions may be exclusive to particular developmental roles, but it is also possible that motifs are mostly shared among different processes. Here we focus on HoxA13, a protein essential for limb development. We asked whether the HoxA13 amino acid sequence evolved similarly in three limbless clades: Gymnophiona, Amphisbaenia and Serpentes. We explored variation in ω (dN/dS) using a maximum-likelihood framework and HoxA13sequences from 47 species. Comparisons of evolutionary models provided low ω global values and no evidence that HoxA13 experienced relaxed selection in limbless clades. Branch-site models failed to detect evidence for positive selection acting on any site along branches of Amphisbaena and Gymnophiona, while three sites were identified in Serpentes. Examination of alignments did not reveal consistent sequence differences between limbed and limbless species. We conclude that HoxA13 has no modules exclusive to limb development, which may be explained by its involvement in multiple developmental processes

Factors associated with recurrence and survival length following relapse in patients with neuroblastoma

Background: Despite therapeutic advances, survival following relapse for neuroblastoma patients remains poor. We investigated clinical and biological factors associated with length of progression-free and overall survival following relapse in UK neuroblastoma patients. Methods: All cases of relapsed neuroblastoma, diagnosed during 1990-2010, were identified from four Paediatric Oncology principal treatment centres. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to calculate post-relapse overall survival (PROS), post-relapse progression-free survival (PRPFS) between relapse and further progression, and to investigate influencing factors. Results: One hundred eighty-nine cases were identified from case notes, 159 (84.0%) high risk and 17 (9.0%), unresectable, MYCN non-amplified (non-MNA) intermediate risk (IR). For high-risk patients diagnosed >2000, median PROS was 8.4 months (interquartile range (IQR)=3.0-17.4) and median PRPFS was 4.7 months (IQR=2.1-7.1). For IR, unresectable non-MNA patients, median PROS was 11.8 months (IQR 9.0-51.6) and 5-year PROS was 24% (95% CI 7-45%). MYCN amplified (MNA) disease and bone marrow metastases at diagnosis were independently associated with worse PROS for high-risk cases. Eighty percent of high-risk relapses occurred within 2 years of diagnosis compared with 50% of unresectable non-MNA IR disease. Conclusions: Patients with relapsed HR neuroblastomas should be treatment stratified according to MYCN status and PRPFS should be the primary endpoint in early phase clinical trials. The failure to salvage the majority of IR neuroblastoma is concerning, supporting investigation of intensification of upfront treatment regimens in this group to determine whether their use would diminish likelihood of relapse

Stationary cocycles and Busemann functions for the corner growth model

We study the directed last-passage percolation model on the planar square lattice with nearest-neighbor steps and general i.i.d. weights on the vertices, out- side of the class of exactly solvable models. Stationary cocycles are constructed for this percolation model from queueing fixed points. These cocycles serve as bound- ary conditions for stationary last-passage percolation, solve variational formulas that characterize limit shapes, and yield existence of Busemann functions in directions where the shape has some regularity. In a sequel to this paper the cocycles are used to prove results about semi-infinite geodesics and the competition interface

Efficient Finite Groups Arising in the Study of Relative Asphericity

We study a class of two-generator two-relator groups, denoted Jn(m, k), that arise in the study of relative asphericity as groups satisfying a transitional curvature condition. Particular instances of these groups occur in the literature as finite groups of intriguing orders. Here we find infinite families of non-elementary virtually free groups and of finite metabelian non-nilpotent groups, for which we determine the orders. All Mersenne primes arise as factors of the orders of the non-metacyclic groups in the class, as do all primes from other conjecturally infinite families of primes. We classify the finite groups up to isomorphism and show that our class overlaps and extends a class of groups Fa,b,c with trivalent Cayley graphs that was introduced by C.M.Campbell, H.S.M.Coxeter, and E.F.Robertson. The theory of cyclically presented groups informs our methods and we extend part of this theory (namely, on connections with polynomial resultants) to ?bicyclically presented groups? that arise naturally in our analysis. As a corollary to our main results we obtain new infinite families of finite metacyclic generalized Fibonacci groups

Contrasting impacts of heat stress on violent and nonviolent robbery in Beijing, China

Previous studies investigating the relation between heat stress and crime incidents often focus on violent crimes. In this study, the impacts of heat stress on two types of robbery (violent and nonviolent) in China are compared using crime statistics collected in Beijing and heat stress indices that consider the combined effects of temperature and humidity. The results indicate that the abrupt change in the trend of robbery rates is affected by the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. The nonviolent robbery rates have a more pronounced seasonality and are better correlated with heat stress at daily scales, especially during the period from 2009 to 2014 when no trend exists. The results also demonstrate that both violent and nonviolent robbery rates significantly increase with heat stress in spring. The nonviolent robbery rates also significantly increase with heat stress in summer. The influence of heat stress on violent robbery rate is more complicated and nonlinear

Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification

Developmental and evolutionary assumptions in a study about the impact of premature birth and low income on mother–infant interaction

In order to study the impact of premature birth and low income on mother–infant interaction, four Portuguese samples were gathered: full-term, middle-class (n=99); premature, middle-class (n=63); full-term, low income (n=22); and premature, low income (n=21). Infants were filmed in a free play situation with their mothers, and the results were scored using the CARE Index. By means of multinomial regression analysis, social economic status (SES) was found to be the best predictor of maternal sensitivity and infant cooperative behavior within a set of medical and social factors. Contrary to the expectations of the cumulative risk perspective, two factors of risk (premature birth together with low SES) were as negative for mother–infant interaction as low SES solely. In this study, as previous studies have shown, maternal sensitivity and infant cooperative behavior were highly correlated, as was maternal control with infant compliance. Our results further indicate that, when maternal lack of responsiveness is high, the infant displays passive behavior, whereas when the maternal lack of responsiveness is medium, the infant displays difficult behavior. Indeed, our findings suggest that, in these cases, the link between types of maternal and infant interactive behavior is more dependent on the degree of maternal lack of responsiveness than it is on birth status or SES. The results will be discussed under a developmental and evolutionary reasonin

The role of qualitative research in adding value to a randomised controlled trial: lessons from a pilot study of a guided e-learning intervention for managers to improve employee wellbeing and reduce sickness absence

The GEM study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research Programme (project number 10/3007/06)

Ergocalciferol and Microcirculatory Function in Chronic Kidney Disease and Concomitant Vitamin D Deficiency: An Exploratory, Double Blind, Randomised Controlled Trial

Vitamin D deficiency and endothelial dysfunction are non-traditional risk factors for cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease. Previous studies in chronic kidney disease have failed to demonstrate a beneficial effect of vitamin D on arterial stiffness, left ventricular mass and inflammation but none have assessed the effect of vitamin D on microcirculatory endothelial function.We conducted a randomised controlled trial of 38 patients with non diabetic chronic kidney disease stage 3-4 and concomitant vitamin D deficiency (<16 ng/dl) who received oral ergocalciferol (50,000 IU weekly for one month followed by 50,000 IU monthly) or placebo over 6 months. The primary outcome was change in microcirculatory function measured by laser Doppler flowmetry after iontophoresis of acetylcholine. Secondary endpoints were tissue advanced glycation end products, sublingual functional capillary density and flow index as well as macrovascular parameters. Parallel in vitro experiments were conducted to determine the effect of ergocalciferol on cultured human endothelial cells.Twenty patients received ergocalciferol and 18 patients received placebo. After 6 months, there was a significant improvement in the ergocalciferol group in both endothelium dependent microcirculatory vasodilatation after iontophoresis of acetylcholine (p = 0.03) and a reduction in tissue advanced glycation end products (p = 0.03). There were no changes in sublingual microcirculatory parameters. Pulse pressure (p = 0.01) but not aortic pulse wave velocity was reduced. There were no significant changes in bone mineral parameters, blood pressure or left ventricular mass index suggesting that ergocalciferol improved endothelial function independently of these parameters. In parallel experiments, expression of endothelial nitric oxide synthase and activity were increased in human endothelial cells in a dose dependent manner.Ergocalciferol improved microcirculatory endothelial function in patients with chronic kidney disease and concomitant vitamin D deficiency. This process may be mediated through enhanced expression and activity of endothelial nitric oxide synthase.Clinical trials.gov NCT00882401