Essays on the economics of state policy reform

Lately, the debate over various public policies, such as immigration reform and tax policy, has heated up in the United States. This dissertation seeks to explore the different impacts that some of the policy changes have on different groups of people. In doing so, I am able to help better inform policymakers of the possible economic outcomes of future reforms. The first chapter examines the labor market impacts of two state-level immigration policies designed to reduce the presence of undocumented immigrants: E-Verify and "Show Me Your Papers" (SMYP). Using a difference-in-difference strategy, I examine the separate and combined effects of these laws on the employment and wages of likely unauthorized, working-age men and women and the groups of low-skill American workers with whom they are most likely to compete for jobs. I also look at how these laws impact state-level economic outcomes, including industry- specific GDP. I find that immigration reform reduces employment and hourly wages among undocumented men. Immigration reform also results in large, negative impacts on state GDP, especially in industries that rely more heavily on undocumented workers. The second chapter examines the questions of whether consumers respond differently to taxes of different salience levels and if there is heterogeneity in consumer tax salience across income groups and other categorical groups such as age and education groups. I find evidence supporting tax salience theory in the market for alcohol. Additionally, I find evidence of heterogeneity in tax salience effects across different education levels. In particular, more educated consumers are more responsive to changes in sales taxes. The third chapter focuses on the impacts of immigration reform on the children of undocumented immigrants. By comparing siblings in a difference-in-difference approach, I show that DACA, a policy that reduces legal barriers for young undocumented immigrants, increases the educational attainment of potentially eligible youth. Meanwhile, policies such as Alabama HB 56, which increase barriers for undocumented immigrants, reduce the enrollment rates and increase dropout rates for the children of undocumented immigrants.Economic

Simulations of the formation of stellar discs in the Galactic centre via cloud-cloud collisions

Young massive stars in the central parsec of our Galaxy are best explained by star formation within at least one, and possibly two, massive self-gravitating gaseous discs. With help of numerical simulations, we here consider whether the observed population of young stars could have originated from a large angle collision of two massive gaseous clouds at R approx. 1 parsec from Sgr A*. In all the simulations performed, the post-collision gas flow forms an inner, nearly circular gaseous disc and one or two eccentric outer filaments, consistent with the observations. Furthermore, the radial stellar mass distribution is always very steep, Sigma proportional to R^-2, again consistent with the observations. All of our simulations produce discs that are warped by between 30 to 60 degrees, in accordance with the most recent observations. The 3D velocity structure of the stellar distribution is sensitive to initial conditions (e.g., the impact parameter of the clouds) and gas cooling details. For example, the runs in which the inner disc is fed intermittently with material possessing fluctuating angular momentum result in multiple stellar discs with different orbital orientations, contradicting the observed data. In all the cases the amount of gas accreted by our inner boundary condition is large, enough to allow Sgr A* to radiate near its Eddington limit over approx. 10^5 years. This suggests that a refined model would have physically larger clouds (or a cloud and a disc such as the circumnuclear disc) colliding at a distance of a few parsecs rather than 1 parsec as in our simulations.Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor additions at referee request. Movies of simulations available at http://www.astro.le.ac.uk/~aph11/movies.htm

How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads

How did the Subprime Crisis, a problem in a small corner of U.S. financial markets, affect the entire global banking system? To shed light on this question we use principal components analysis to identify common factors in the movement of banks' credit default swap spreads. We find that fortunes of international banks rise and fall together even in normal times along with short-term global economic prospects. But the importance of common factors rose steadily to exceptional levels from the outbreak of the Subprime Crisis to past the rescue of Bear Stearns, reflecting a diffuse sense that funding and credit risk was increasing. Following the failure of Lehman Brothers, the interdependencies briefly increased to a new high, before they fell back to the pre-Lehman elevated levels - but now they more clearly reflected heightened funding and counterparty risk. After Lehman's failure, the prospect of global recession became imminent, auguring the further deterioration of banks' loan portfolios. At this point the entire global financial system had become infected

Star Formation and Dynamics in the Galactic Centre

The centre of our Galaxy is one of the most studied and yet enigmatic places in the Universe. At a distance of about 8 kpc from our Sun, the Galactic centre (GC) is the ideal environment to study the extreme processes that take place in the vicinity of a supermassive black hole (SMBH). Despite the hostile environment, several tens of early-type stars populate the central parsec of our Galaxy. A fraction of them lie in a thin ring with mild eccentricity and inner radius ~0.04 pc, while the S-stars, i.e. the ~30 stars closest to the SMBH (<0.04 pc), have randomly oriented and highly eccentric orbits. The formation of such early-type stars has been a puzzle for a long time: molecular clouds should be tidally disrupted by the SMBH before they can fragment into stars. We review the main scenarios proposed to explain the formation and the dynamical evolution of the early-type stars in the GC. In particular, we discuss the most popular in situ scenarios (accretion disc fragmentation and molecular cloud disruption) and migration scenarios (star cluster inspiral and Hills mechanism). We focus on the most pressing challenges that must be faced to shed light on the process of star formation in the vicinity of a SMBH.Comment: 68 pages, 35 figures; invited review chapter, to be published in expanded form in Haardt, F., Gorini, V., Moschella, U. and Treves, A., 'Astrophysical Black Holes'. Lecture Notes in Physics. Springer 201

The contribution of Fermi-2LAC blazars to the diffuse TeV-PeV neutrino flux

The recent discovery of a diffuse cosmic neutrino flux extending up to PeV energies raises the question of which astrophysical sources generate this signal. One class of extragalactic sources which may produce such high-energy neutrinos are blazars. We present a likelihood analysis searching for cumulative neutrino emission from blazars in the 2nd Fermi-LAT AGN catalogue (2LAC) using an IceCube neutrino dataset 2009-12 which was optimised for the detection of individual sources. In contrast to previous searches with IceCube, the populations investigated contain up to hundreds of sources, the largest one being the entire blazar sample in the 2LAC catalogue. No significant excess is observed and upper limits for the cumulative flux from these populations are obtained. These constrain the maximum contribution of the 2LAC blazars to the observed astrophysical neutrino flux to be $27 \%$ or less between around 10 TeV and 2 PeV, assuming equipartition of flavours at Earth and a single power-law spectrum with a spectral index of $-2.5$. We can still exclude that the 2LAC blazars (and sub-populations) emit more than $50 \%$ of the observed neutrinos up to a spectral index as hard as $-2.2$ in the same energy range. Our result takes into account that the neutrino source count distribution is unknown, and it does not assume strict proportionality of the neutrino flux to the measured 2LAC $\gamma$-ray signal for each source. Additionally, we constrain recent models for neutrino emission by blazars.Comment: 18 pages, 22 figure

All-sky search for time-integrated neutrino emission from astrophysical sources with 7 years of IceCube data

Since the recent detection of an astrophysical flux of high energy neutrinos, the question of its origin has not yet fully been answered. Much of what is known about this flux comes from a small event sample of high neutrino purity, good energy resolution, but large angular uncertainties. In searches for point-like sources, on the other hand, the best performance is given by using large statistics and good angular reconstructions. Track-like muon events produced in neutrino interactions satisfy these requirements. We present here the results of searches for point-like sources with neutrinos using data acquired by the IceCube detector over seven years from 2008--2015. The discovery potential of the analysis in the northern sky is now significantly below $E_\nu^2d\phi/dE_\nu=10^{-12}\:\mathrm{TeV\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}}$, on average $38\%$ lower than the sensitivity of the previously published analysis of four years exposure. No significant clustering of neutrinos above background expectation was observed, and implications for prominent neutrino source candidates are discussed.Comment: 19 pages, 17 figures, 3 tables; ; submitted to The Astrophysical Journa

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory: Instrumentation and Online Systems

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is a cubic-kilometer-scale high-energy neutrino detector built into the ice at the South Pole. Construction of IceCube, the largest neutrino detector built to date, was completed in 2011 and enabled the discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos. We describe here the design, production, and calibration of the IceCube digital optical module (DOM), the cable systems, computing hardware, and our methodology for drilling and deployment. We also describe the online triggering and data filtering systems that select candidate neutrino and cosmic ray events for analysis. Due to a rigorous pre-deployment protocol, 98.4% of the DOMs in the deep ice are operating and collecting data. IceCube routinely achieves a detector uptime of 99% by emphasizing software stability and monitoring. Detector operations have been stable since construction was completed, and the detector is expected to operate at least until the end of the next decade.Comment: 83 pages, 50 figures; updated with minor changes from journal review and proofin

Neutrinos and Cosmic Rays Observed by IceCube

The core mission of the IceCube Neutrino observatory is to study the origin and propagation of cosmic rays. IceCube, with its surface component IceTop, observes multiple signatures to accomplish this mission. Most important are the astrophysical neutrinos that are produced in interactions of cosmic rays, close to their sources and in interstellar space. IceCube is the first instrument that measures the properties of this astrophysical neutrino flux, and constrains its origin. In addition, the spectrum, composition and anisotropy of the local cosmic-ray flux are obtained from measurements of atmospheric muons and showers. Here we provide an overview of recent findings from the analysis of IceCube data, and their implications on our understanding of cosmic rays.Comment: Review article, to appear in Advances in Space Research, special issue "Origins of Cosmic Rays

Improved limits on dark matter annihilation in the Sun with the 79-string IceCube detector and implications for supersymmetry

We present an improved event-level likelihood formalism for including neutrino telescope data in global fits to new physics. We derive limits on spin-dependent dark matter-proton scattering by employing the new formalism in a re-analysis of data from the 79-string IceCube search for dark matter annihilation in the Sun, including explicit energy information for each event. The new analysis excludes a number of models in the weak-scale minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) for the first time. This work is accompanied by the public release of the 79-string IceCube data, as well as an associated computer code for applying the new likelihood to arbitrary dark matter models.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figs, 1 table. Contact authors: Pat Scott & Matthias Danninger. Likelihood tool available at http://nulike.hepforge.org. v2: small updates to address JCAP referee repor