Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of HIV and its progression to AIDS in Ireland

Despite advances m understanding the basic biology of HIV the aetiological agent of AIDS, medica1, public health and health education planning is plagued by uncertainties Mathematical models of the dynamics of HIV transmission and its progression to AIDS can clarify what data must be collected in order to predict future prevalence, make predictions about the likely effect of future intervention pobcies and provide predictions for several decades ahead. The motivation of this research is to provide reliable estimates of the incidence of HIV infection and AIDS in the Irish population. In Chapters 1 and 2 we discuss the background to the disease in Ireland and the role of mathematical modelling in the spread AIDS. From this we show where key epidemiological data is lacking and how models to date have concentrated on the spread of the disease within the homosexual population. In Chapter 3 we describe the adjustment of the number of AIDS cases to allow for reporting delays Subsequently we consider the solution of the integral equation models generated by the back-projection method for the adjusted AIDS cases. In Chapter 4 we improve upon the estimates of the incidence of HIV infection found in Chapter 3 by evaluating the integral arising in back-projection, in terms of a gamma function plus a remainder in the form of a series in t. We also provide error bounds for the remainder. This new solution allows us to predict new and more reliable estimates of the level of HIV infection m Ireland. In Chapter 5 we provide estimates of the minimum number of deaths from AIDS, based on the number of AIDS cases known to the Department of Health and the distribution of the length of survival times after the onset of AIDS. The results of a HIV transmission survey are presented in Chapter 6 These provide detailed information on the habits and behaviour of those at risk of HIV infection and allow us to derive preliminary model parameters. Finally in Chapter 7 we develop and implement a nonlinear deterministic differential equation model for the spread of HIV and its progression to AIDS m the Irish IVDU and homosexual populations. We examine the effects of likely intervention policies on the extent and spread of the disease and we make recommendations based on our thesis findings

ROSIE Findings 6: a summary of 3-year outcomes.

The Research Outcome Study in Ireland (ROSIE) is the first national, prospective, longitudinal, multi-site drug treatment outcome study in the country. The National Advisory Committee on Drugs (NACD) commissioned this research in 2002 as required by the National Drugs Strategy Action 99. The aim of the study was to recruit and follow opiate users entering treatment over a period of time, documenting the changes observed. The study recruited 404 opiate users entering treatment. Outcomes at 3-years for drug use, involvement in crime, injecting-related behaviour, physical and mental health, among others, are presented in this paper. Statistically significant differences are given emphasis in this document

ROSIE Findings 2: summary of 1-year outcomes: detoxification modality.

The Research Outcome Study in Ireland (ROSIE) is the first national, prospective, longitudinal, multi-site drug treatment outcome study in the country. The National Advisory Committee on Drugs (NACD) commissioned this research in 2002 as required by the National Drugs Strategy Action 99. The aim of the Study is to recruit and follow opiate users entering treatment over a period of time documenting the changes observed. Detoxification cohort: follow-up rates: Of the 81 people recruited within the detoxification modality, 93% (n=75) were located, and 77% (n=62) successfully completed a 1-year interview. One individual died within the follow-up period, four people withdrew from the study, eight people were located but not successfully interviewed, and an additional six participants were not located. These 19 people ‘lost’ to follow-up were excluded from the comparative analysis to allow for valid assessment across the two time periods.This is the second paper in the ROSIE Findings series and it provides a snapshot of the outcomes for people in the detoxification modality one year after treatment intake

The State of the North American Church

Barna, more than any other person, has diligently uncovered what is happening in the North American church scene through hard, factual research. This article combines Barna’s research, the research of others, and my own personal observations to paint a clearer picture of the North American church

A Tale of Two Countries\u27 Engagement with the Fair Cross Section Right: Aboriginal Underrepresentation on Ontario Juries and the Boston Marathon Bomber\u27s Jury Wheel Challenge

In both Canada and the United States, the constitutional right to a jury trial includes the right to select a jury from a representative cross-section of the jury-eligible population. This article compares and contrasts how this right has been interpreted in the two countries through the lens of recent controversies. In Part I, the article examines how the Supreme Court of Canada and the United States Supreme Court have defined the representative cross-section component of the right to a jury trial in the two respective countries. In Part II, the article focuses on the crisis of Aboriginal underrepresentation on coroner and petit juries in Ontario, Canada. The findings of the Iaocubucci Report exploring the breadth of the problem, the reasons for the chronic underrepresentation of Aboriginals and recommendations for reform are canvassed. The article then moves to a critical examination of the groundbreaking decision of the Ontario Court of Appeal in R. v. Kokopenace where the court extended the doctrine of honour of the Crown to impose heightened obligations on the state to ensure adequate representation of Aboriginals on the jury rolls. In Part III of the article, the Boston Marathon bombing case of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev is used as a lens through which to understand how defendants marshal representative cross-section of the community arguments in the United States. Tsarnaev asserted that his right to a jury trial was infringed by the underrepresentation of African Americans and almost complete absence of citizens aged seventy and older from the venires in both his grand jury and petit jury. It is argued that the biggest challenge within the American jurisprudence is the conundrum of which statistical test to employ in measuring disparity among the represented groups. The lack of judicial direction has created a difficult abyss where it is impossible for litigants or defendants to assess the likelihood of success that a challenge to a jury venire based on failure to meet the fair representation right will have. The article suggests that the coming years will be critical ones. In Canada, it remains to be seen whether the Iacobucci Report and Kokopenace decision mark a watershed moment that will lead to greater representation of Aboriginals on juries and a step toward healing the deep distrust that Aboriginals have for the criminal justice system. And in the United States, the coming years will reveal whether the courts step forward to accept the challenge of establishing principles and setting standards for the measurement of disparity when such guidance is sorely needed

Yoido Full Gospel Church

Yoido Full Gospel Church in Korea has been one of the main models of church growth for a number of years. Dr. Joel Comiskey presents what is likely the most thorough study of the actual attendance figures at this church ever completed. His findings and conclusions will surprise many readers and be an interesting case study for many church growth classes