The ongoing "coming out" process of lesbian parents

Includes bibliographical references

Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda

This paper uses data from Texas liquor referenda to explore a new approach to understanding voter turnout, inspired by the theoretical work of Harsanyi (1980) and Feddersen and Sandroni (2001). It presents a model based on this approach and structurally estimates it using the referendum data. It then compares the performance of the model with two alternative models of turnout. The results are encouraging: the structural estimation yields sensible parameter estimates and the model performs better than the two alternatives considered.

EITC, AFDC, and the Female Headship Decision

Concerns about the incentives for female headship for low-income families have focused on Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC); however, the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has brought more low-income households into the tax system, subjecting them to additional marriage nonneutralities. Theoretical predictions about the correlations between the EITC and female headship are ambiguous. This paper is the first to provide empirical evidence that the EITC is correlated with female headship decisions. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we find no significant correlations between AFDC and female headship. However, the ambiguous effect of the EITC on female headship is evident in our empirical analysis. After controlling for individual effects, we find that higher EITCs are associated with increased female headship for white women, but with decreased female headship for black women. For a sample of white women, we find that a $100 increase in the EITC would increase the probability of female headship by 0.1 percent. For a sample of black women, we find that a$100 increase in the EITC would decrease the probability of female headship by 1.4 percent, although this result is not robust.

Utilization of Income Tax Credits by Low-Income Individuals

The Internal Revenue Service-a sub-agency that exists to collect revenue-has the task of administering and enforcing a wide array of social policy: from subsidies for college and child care expenses, to creating jobs in depressed areas, and assisting welfare recipients with employment. While these new or expanded credits represent a new paradigm in the delivery of social policy, little is known about who uses these programs and, equally important, who does not use these programs. Understanding utilization is a key to understanding how effective this means of transferring income is and whether we are reaching the targeted populations. This paper provides a framework for thinking about utilization of tax credits among low-income individuals, supported by existing research on credit utilization. With the existing data, it appears that utilization is by far the largest for the EITC, possibly because it is the oldest of these programs, the only refundable program, and the best targeted at low-income individuals. Utilization is low among low-income individuals in some tax credits because low-income individuals are not eligible. A redesign, including reducing complexity and administrative burdens or making these programs refundable, would result in the programs reaching those that they are ostensibly targeted towards. Conditional on being eligible, one common factor associated with increasing participation in many of these programs is a high benefit to cost ratio and sophistication with the tax system, whether that be through the use of a paid preparer, higher education levels, or experience with the tax system. Policymakers should think creatively about reducing filing burdens to increase participation, such as through wider use of electronic filing

The Performance of the Pivotal-Voter Model in Small-Scale Elections: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda

How well does the pivotal-voter model explain voter participation in small-scale elections? This paper explores this question using data from Texas liquor referenda. It first structurally estimates the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the Texas data. It then uses the estimates to evaluate both the within and out-of-sample performance of the model. The analysis shows that the model is capable of predicting turnout in the data fairly well, but tends, on average, to predict closer electoral outcomes than are observed in the data. This difficulty allows the pivotal-voter model to be outperformed by a simple alternative model based on the idea of expressive voting.

Minnesota Agricultural Economist 685

Livestock Production/Industries,

Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behavior. Price movements in the United States real estate investment trusts and United Kingdom property companies markets are explored using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both U.S. and U.K. markets, distinctive behavior emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behavior across regimes.