Assessing candidate preference through web browsing history

Predicting election outcomes is of considerable interest to candidates, political scientists, and the public at large. We propose the use of Web browsing history as a new indicator of candidate preference among the electorate, one that has potential to overcome a number of the drawbacks of election polls. However, there are a number of challenges that must be overcome to effectively use Web browsing for assessing candidate preference—including the lack of suitable ground truth data and the heterogeneity of user populations in time and space. We address these challenges, and show that the resulting methods can shed considerable light on the dynamics of voters’ candidate preferences in ways that are difficult to achieve using polls.Accepted manuscrip

The Digital Evolution of Occupy Wall Street

We examine the temporal evolution of digital communication activity relating to the American anti-capitalist movement Occupy Wall Street. Using a high-volume sample from the microblogging site Twitter, we investigate changes in Occupy participant engagement, interests, and social connectivity over a fifteen month period starting three months prior to the movement's first protest action. The results of this analysis indicate that, on Twitter, the Occupy movement tended to elicit participation from a set of highly interconnected users with pre-existing interests in domestic politics and foreign social movements. These users, while highly vocal in the months immediately following the birth of the movement, appear to have lost interest in Occupy related communication over the remainder of the study period.Comment: Open access available at: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.006467

The Insulin-Like Growth Factor System in the Long-Lived Naked Mole-Rat.

Naked mole-rats (Heterocephalus glaber) (NMRs) are the longest living rodents known. They show negligible senescence, and are resistant to cancers and certain damaging effects associated with aging. The insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) have pluripotent actions, influencing growth processes in virtually every system of the body. They are established contributors to the aging process, confirmed by the demonstration that decreased IGF signaling results in life-extending effects in a variety of species. The IGFs are likewise involved in progression of cancers by mediating survival signals in malignant cells. This report presents a full characterization of the IGF system in the NMR: ligands, receptors, IGF binding proteins (IGFBPs), and IGFBP proteases. A particular emphasis was placed on the IGFBP protease, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), shown to be an important lifespan modulator in mice. Comparisons of IGF-related genes in the NMR with human and murine sequences indicated no major differences in essential parts of the IGF system, including PAPP-A. The protease was shown to possess an intact active site despite the report of a contradictory genome sequence. Furthermore, PAPP-A was expressed and translated in NMRs cells and retained IGF-dependent proteolytic activity towards IGFBP-4 and IGF-independent activity towards IGFBP-5. However, experimental data suggest differential regulatory mechanisms for PAPP-A expression in NMRs than those described in humans and mice. This overall description of the IGF system in the NMR represents an initial step towards elucidating the complex molecular mechanisms underlying longevity, and how these animals have evolved to ensure a delayed and healthy aging process

A Landowner’s Guide to Common North American Predators of Upland-nesting Birds

Predation has been identified as a key factor limiting upland-nesting bird reproductive success in many studies. These results suggest that the effects of predation could be reduced by establishing and maintaining suitable nesting habitats. In several studies, habitat management alone was able to maintain populations of upland-nesting birds at or slightly above threshold believed necessary to sustain populations. However, additional studies also have shown that avian populations increased substantially after predator populations were reduced or nesting birds were protected by restricting predator access through the use of electric fencing or creating nesting islands. These practices, however, need to be implemented in combination with good habitat management if optimum benefits are to be realized

Environmental cues and constraints affecting the seasonality of dominant calanoid copepods in brackish, coastal waters: a case study of Acartia, Temora and Eurytemora species in the south-west Baltic

Information on physiological rates and tolerances helps one gain a cause-and-effect understanding of the role that some environmental (bottom–up) factors play in regulating the seasonality and productivity of key species. We combined the results of laboratory experiments on reproductive success and field time series data on adult abundance to explore factors controlling the seasonality of Acartia spp., Eurytemora affinis and Temora longicornis, key copepods of brackish, coastal and temperate environments. Patterns in laboratory and field data were discussed using a metabolic framework that included the effects of ‘controlling’, ‘masking’ and ‘directive’ environmental factors. Over a 5-year period, changes in adult abundance within two south-west Baltic field sites (Kiel Fjord Pier, 54°19′89N, 10°09′06E, 12–21 psu, and North/Baltic Sea Canal NOK, 54°20′45N, 9°57′02E, 4–10 psu) were evaluated with respect to changes in temperature, salinity, day length and chlorophyll a concentration. Acartia spp. dominated the copepod assemblage at both sites (up to 16,764 and 21,771 females m−3 at NOK and Pier) and was 4 to 10 times more abundant than E. affinis (to 2,939 m−3 at NOK) and T. longicornis (to 1,959 m−3 at Pier), respectively. Species-specific salinity tolerance explains differences in adult abundance between sampling sites whereas phenological differences among species are best explained by the influence of species-specific thermal windows and prey requirements supporting survival and egg production. Multiple intrinsic and extrinsic (environmental) factors influence the production of different egg types (normal and resting), regulate life-history strategies and influence match–mismatch dynamics

Comparing large lecture mechanics curricula using the Force Concept Inventory: A five thousand student study

The performance of over 5000 students in introductory calculus-based mechanics courses at the Georgia Institute of Technology was assessed using the Force Concept Inventory (FCI). Results from two different curricula were compared: a traditional mechanics curriculum and the Matter & Interactions (M&I) curriculum. Post-instruction FCI averages were significantly higher for the traditional curriculum than for the M&I curriculum; the differences between curricula persist after accounting for factors such as pre-instruction FCI scores, grade point averages, and SAT scores. FCI performance on categories of items organized by concepts was also compared; traditional averages were significantly higher in each concept. We examined differences in student preparation between the curricula and found that the relative fraction of homework and lecture topics devoted to FCI force and motion concepts correlated with the observed performance differences. Limitations of concept inventories as instruments for evaluating curricular reforms are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Am. J. Phys. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1112.559

Renin-angiotensin system blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19:an international, open science, cohort analysis

Background: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been postulated to affect susceptibility to COVID-19. Observational studies so far have lacked rigorous ascertainment adjustment and international generalisability. We aimed to determine whether use of ACEIs or ARBs is associated with an increased susceptibility to COVID-19 in patients with hypertension.Methods: In this international, open science, cohort analysis, we used electronic health records from Spain (Information Systems for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP]) and the USA (Columbia University Irving Medical Center data warehouse [CUIMC] and Department of Veterans Affairs Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership [VA-OMOP]) to identify patients aged 18 years or older with at least one prescription for ACEIs and ARBs (target cohort) or calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics (THZs; comparator cohort) between Nov 1, 2019, and Jan 31, 2020. Users were defined separately as receiving either monotherapy with these four drug classes, or monotherapy or combination therapy (combination use) with other antihypertensive medications. We assessed four outcomes: COVID-19 diagnosis; hospital admission with COVID-19; hospital admission with pneumonia; and hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis. We built large-scale propensity score methods derived through a data-driven approach and negative control experiments across ten pairwise comparisons, with results meta-analysed to generate 1280 study effects. For each study effect, we did negative control outcome experiments using a possible 123 controls identified through a data-rich algorithm. This process used a set of predefined baseline patient characteristics to provide the most accurate prediction of treatment and balance among patient cohorts across characteristics. The study is registered with the EU Post-Authorisation Studies register, EUPAS35296.Findings: Among 1 355 349 antihypertensive users (363 785 ACEI or ARB monotherapy users, 248 915 CCB or THZ monotherapy users, 711 799 ACEI or ARB combination users, and 473 076 CCB or THZ combination users) included in analyses, no association was observed between COVID-19 diagnosis and exposure to ACEI or ARB monotherapy versus CCB or THZ monotherapy (calibrated hazard ratio [HR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·84-1·14) or combination use exposure (1·01, 0·90-1·15). ACEIs alone similarly showed no relative risk difference when compared with CCB or THZ monotherapy (HR 0·91, 95% CI 0·68-1·21; with heterogeneity of &gt;40%) or combination use (0·95, 0·83-1·07). Directly comparing ACEIs with ARBs demonstrated a moderately lower risk with ACEIs, which was significant with combination use (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99) and non-significant for monotherapy (0·85, 0·69-1·05). We observed no significant difference between drug classes for risk of hospital admission with COVID-19, hospital admission with pneumonia, or hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis across all comparisons.Interpretation: No clinically significant increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital admission-related outcomes associated with ACEI or ARB use was observed, suggesting users should not discontinue or change their treatment to decrease their risk of COVID-19.</p