Rethinking False Spring Risk

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events - often called false springs - are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology, and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which is essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs

Pacific Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Variability are the Dominant Causes of Spatially Widespread Droughts in the Contiguous United States

The contributions of oceanic and atmospheric variability to spatially widespread summer droughts in the contiguous United States (hereafter, pan-CONUS droughts) are investigated using 16-member ensembles of the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1856 to 2012. The employed SST forcing fields are either (i) global or restricted to the (ii) tropical Pacific or (iii) tropical Atlantic to isolate the impacts of these two ocean regions on pan-CONUS droughts. Model results show that SST forcing of pan-CONUS droughts originates almost entirely from the tropical Pacific because of atmospheric highs from the northern Pacific to eastern North America established by La Nia conditions, with little contribution from the tropical Atlantic. Notably, in all three model configurations, internal atmospheric variability influences pan-CONUS drought occurrence by as much or more than the ocean forcing and can alone cause pan-CONUS droughts by establishing a dominant high centered over the US montane West. Similar results are found for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Model results are compared to the observational record, which supports model-inferred contributions to pan-CONUS droughts from La Nias and internal atmospheric variability. While there may be an additional association with warm Atlantic SSTs in the observational record, this association is ambiguous due to the limited number of observed pan-CONUS. The ambiguity thus opens the possibility that the observational results are limited by sampling over the 20th-century and not at odds with the suggested dominance of Pacific Ocean forcing in the model ensembles

A Cooperative Sequential Adsorption Model in Two Dimensions with Experimental Applications for Ionic Self-Assembly of Nanoparticles

Self-assembly of nanoparticles is an important tool in nanotechnology, with numerous applications including thin films, electronics, and drug delivery. We study the deposition of ionic nanoparticles on a glass substrate both experimentally and theoretically. Our theoretical model consists of a stochastic cooperative adsorption and evaporation process on a two-dimensional lattice. By exploring the relationship between the initial concentration of nanoparticles in the colloidal solution and the density of particles deposited on the substrate, we relate the deposition rate of our theoretical model to the concentration.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures; v2: major revisio

A Proper Motion Survey for White Dwarfs with the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2

We have performed a search for halo white dwarfs as high proper motion objects in a second epoch WFPC2 image of the Groth-Westphal strip. We identify 24 high proper motion objects with mu > 0.014 ''/yr. Five of these high proper motion objects are identified as strong white dwarf candidates on the basis of their position in a reduced proper motion diagram. We create a model of the Milky Way thin disk, thick disk and stellar halo and find that this sample of white dwarfs is clearly an excess above the < 2 detections expected from these known stellar populations. The origin of the excess signal is less clear. Possibly, the excess cannot be explained without invoking a fourth galactic component: a white dwarf dark halo. We present a statistical separation of our sample into the four components and estimate the corresponding local white dwarf densities using only the directly observable variables, V, V-I, and mu. For all Galactic models explored, our sample separates into about 3 disk white dwarfs and 2 halo white dwarfs. However, the further subdivision into the thin and thick disk and the stellar and dark halo, and the subsequent calculation of the local densities are sensitive to the input parameters of our model for each Galactic component. Using the lowest mean mass model for the dark halo we find a 7% white dwarf halo and six times the canonical value for the thin disk white dwarf density (at marginal statistical significance), but possible systematic errors due to uncertainty in the model parameters likely dominate these statistical error bars. The white dwarf halo can be reduced to around 1.5% of the halo dark matter by changing the initial mass function slightly. The local thin disk white dwarf density in our solution can be made consistent with the canonical value by assuming a larger thin disk scaleheight of 500 pc.Comment: revised version, accepted by ApJ, results unchanged, discussion expande

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection

Building Bridges with Boats: Preserving Community History through Intra- and Inter-Institutional Collaboration

This chapter discusses Launching through the Surf: The Dory Fleet of Pacific City, a project which documents the historical and contemporary role of dory fishers in the life of the coastal village of Pacific City, Oregon, U.S. Linfield College’s Department of Theatre and Communication Arts, its Jereld R. Nicholson Library, the Pacific City Arts Association, the Pacific City Dorymen\u27s Association, and the Linfield Center for the Northwest joined forces to engage in a collaborative college and community venture to preserve this important facet of Oregon’s history. Using ethnography as a theoretical grounding and oral history as a method, the project utilized artifacts from the dory fleet to augment interview data, and faculty/student teams created a searchable digital archive available via open access. The chapter draws on the authors’ experiences to identify a philosophy of strategic collaboration. Topics include project development and management, assessment, and the role of serendipity. In an era of value-added services where libraries need to continue to prove their worth, partnering with internal and external entities to create content is one way for academic libraries to remain relevant to agencies that do not have direct connections to higher education. This project not only developed a positive “town and gown” relationship with a regional community, it also benefited partner organizations as they sought to fulfill their missions. The project also serves as a potential model for intra- and inter-agency collaboration for all types of libraries

Is comparability of C-14 dates an issue?: A status report on the fourth international radiocarbon intercomparison

For more than 15 years, the radiocarbon community has participated in a series of laboratory intercomparisons in response to the issue of comparability of measurements as perceived within the wider user communities (Scott et al. 1990; Rozanski et al. 1992; Guiliksen and Scott 1995; Scott et al. 1997).&lt;br/&gt; In this report, we provide an update on the current C-14 laboratory intercomparison and reflect on future issues linked to the laboratory intercomparison program, not least those resulting from a significant growth in the number of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) facilities providing routine dating of small samples (milligram size)

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system

Exact Lyapunov Exponent for Infinite Products of Random Matrices

In this work, we give a rigorous explicit formula for the Lyapunov exponent for some binary infinite products of random $2\times 2$ real matrices. All these products are constructed using only two types of matrices, $A$ and $B$, which are chosen according to a stochastic process. The matrix $A$ is singular, namely its determinant is zero. This formula is derived by using a particular decomposition for the matrix $B$, which allows us to write the Lyapunov exponent as a sum of convergent series. Finally, we show with an example that the Lyapunov exponent is a discontinuous function of the given parameter.Comment: 1 pages, CPT-93/P.2974,late

Directed polymers in high dimensions

We study directed polymers subject to a quenched random potential in d transversal dimensions. This system is closely related to the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation of nonlinear stochastic growth. By a careful analysis of the perturbation theory we show that physical quantities develop singular behavior for d to 4. For example, the universal finite size amplitude of the free energy at the roughening transition is proportional to (4-d)^(1/2). This shows that the dimension d=4 plays a special role for this system and points towards d=4 as the upper critical dimension of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang problem.Comment: 37 pages REVTEX including 4 PostScript figure