Kandan, a traditional oral genre of the Uut Danum of West Kalimantan

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Hadronic B and D studies at BABAR

We present new results on hadronic B and D decays from the BABAR experiment. The first part of this document presents searches for new channels which may be used for CP measurements. The second part is dedicated to hadronic decays with tests of QCD factorization predictions and other models for B structure and decay mechanisms. A new result on the reference branching ratio Ds+ -->phi pi+ is also reported.Comment: 4 pages, 1 eps figure, contributed to the proceedings of 40th Rencontres de Moriond QCD 200

What drives the market value of firms in the Defense industry ?

This paper investigates the relative importance of different types of news in driving significant stock price changes of firms in the defense industry. We implement a systematic event study with a sample of the 58 largest publicly listed companies in the defense industry, over the time period 1995-2005. We first identify, for each firm, the statistically significant abnormal returns over the time period, and then we look for information releases likely to cause such stock price movements. We find that stock price movements in the defense industry are, in many ways, influenced by the same events as in other industries (key role of formal earnings announcements or analysts' recommendations) but this industry also has some specific features, in particular the influence of geopolitical events and the relevance and frequency of bids and contracts on stock prices.Event study, financial markets, defense industry, information releases, GARCH models.

The apparent shape of the "Str\"omgren sphere'' around the highest-redshift QSOs with Gunn-Peterson troughs

Although the highest redshift QSOs (z>6.1) are embedded in a significantly neutral background universe (mass-averaged neutral hydrogen fraction >1%) as suggested by the Gunn-Peterson absorption troughs in their spectra, the intergalactic medium in their vicinity is highly ionized. The highly ionized region is generally idealized as spherical and called the Str\"omgren sphere. In this paper, by combining the expected evolution of the Str\"omgren sphere with the rule that the speed of light is finite, we illustrate the apparent shape of the ionization fronts around the highest redshift QSOs and its evolution, which depends on the age, luminosity evolution, and environment of the QSO (e.g., the hydrogen reionization history). The apparent shape may systematically deviate from a spherical shape, unless the QSO age is significantly long compared to the hydrogen recombination process within the ionization front and the QSO luminosity evolution is significantly slow. Effects of anisotropy of QSO emission are also discussed. The apparent shape of the "Str\"omgren sphere'' may be directly mapped by transmitted spectra of background sources behind or inside the ionized regions or by surveys of the hyperfine transition (21cm) line emission of neutral hydrogen.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures; discussion on effects of anisotropy of QSO emission expanded; ApJ in pres

Understanding Default Risk Through Nonparametric Intensity Estimation

This paper investigates instantaneous probabilities of default implied by rating and default events. We propose and apply an alternative measurement approach to standard cohort and homogenous hazard estimators. Our estimator is a smooth nonparametric estimator of intensities, free of bias and unambiguously more accurate. It also avoids the Markovian framework and takes care of censoring. Using Standard & Poor’s ratings database we then show that intensities vary both with respect to calendar time and ageing time. We deeper investigate the behaviour of through-the-cycle default probabilities, update and complement knowledge on documented non Markovian patterns. Results do not support associated timeliness problems but indicate a low reactivity of ratings in terms of magnitude. Because of their target horizon, they indeed integrate the mean reverting feature of default intensities.default intensity; hazard estimation; censored duration; non Markovian framework; through-the-cycle ratings

Dynamiques des Entreprises Agroalimentaires (EAA) du Languedoc-Roussillon : évolutions 1998-2003. Programme de recherche PSDR 2001-2006 financé par l'Inra et la Région Languedoc-Roussillon

It was the title chosen in January 2004 for the 12 pages of the "Agreste" restitution of the primary results obtained through this second investigation, to the partners and interviewed firms, which was intended to question the evolutions of the regional agro-food sphere over 5 years (1998-2003). Let us recall that the survey of 1998 was implemented just after the 1992-1995 crisis, and therefore reflected a certain optimism. The situation is far from being similar in 2003, whereas a new crisis has been hitting the global economy since 2001 and, consequently, the consumer has become more cautious. The principal lessons of this investigation appear to be of three orders: 1. Reduction in the number of establishments and firms. Many establishments disappeared (404 out of the 1.384 listed in 1998), but one should also note many creations (194), confirming a real dynamism of the regional agro-food sector. The sales progression, with total sales now reaching nearly 8 billion d'euros, even if it is not very high, implies a concentration of the offer, which is hardly surprising in times of crisis. The good news, under these conditions, is the total resistance of the total employment still reaching around 25.000 full time equivalents. 2. The driving effect on the regional agriculture is very important (nearly 50% of raw agricultural goods purchases come from the area), and 70% of the interviewed chief executives declare to primarily buy from regional producers and suppliers. The added value created by these companies, which is upstream induced, as much in agriculture as in industrial supplies or as in services, is undoubtedly, except perhaps for the public works and construction sectors, the most important among the regional industries. 3. More and more regional companies are becoming "subcontractors", without real decision-making power concerning their future. This relative `forfeiture' of their independence is initially due to a governance which flees the area: the repurchases of regional companies of average size by larger national or international firms often result in the suppression of any human and decisional structure but for production in the region. The increasing dependence on the discount distribution circuits, the companies `privately owned brands' substitution by `low prices' and `buyers own brands' products, proceed from the same weakening of the regional `governance'. On the basis of the principle that the current markets are saturated and the prices of the `standard' current products can only continue to drop, it thus remains the most difficult to achieve: finding new markets and/or finding new products or services. With the current stagnation coming to an end (at least if one believes in these last months economic indicators), an agro-food dynamic and durable revival in Languedoc Roussillon can, according to our understanding, only come from the reinforcement of three strategic orientations in the near future: to innovate more, to better defend its private brands and to export more. The articles presented in this 'research journal' explore these orientations, put forward managing implications resulting from the observed results and propose some directions for future research. ...French Abstract : Tel fut le titre choisi en janvier 2004 pour le 12 pages de restitution "Agreste", auprès des partenaires et entreprises, des premiers résultats obtenus par cette deuxième enquête destinée à sonder l'évolution sur 5 ans (1998-2003) de la sphère agroalimentaire régionale. Rappelons que l'enquête de 1998 se situait en 'sortie' de la crise de 1992-1995 et reflétait un certain optimisme. Il n'en est pas de même en 2003, alors qu'une nouvelle crise rend l'économie globale plutôt atone depuis 2001, et, par voie de conséquence, le consommateur plus frileux. Les principales leçons de l'enquête nous semblent être de trois ordres : 1. Diminution du nombre d'établissements et d'entreprises. Beaucoup d'établissements ont disparu (404 sur les 1 384 recensés en 1998), mais on constate aussi de nombreuses créations (194), confirmant un réel dynamisme de l'agroalimentaire régional. La progression du CA à près de 8 milliards d'euros, même si elle n'est pas très forte, implique un phénomène de concentration de l'offre, qui n'est guère surprenant en temps de crise. La bonne nouvelle, dans ces conditions, c'est le maintien global de l'emploi dans ces entreprises autour de 25 000 équivalents temps plein. 2. L'effet d'entraînement sur l'agriculture régionale est très important (près de 50% des achats de matières premières agricoles proviennent de la région) et 70% des chefs d'entreprise déclarent s'approvisionner auprès de producteurs et fournisseurs régionaux. La valeur ajoutée créée par les entreprises, et celle qui est induite en amont, tant dans l'agriculture que dans l'agro-industrie ou les services est sans doute, à l'exception peut-être du secteur des travaux publics et de la construction, la plus importante de l'industrie régionale. 3. Toujours plus d'entreprises régionales deviennent des " sous-traitants ", sans réel pouvoir de décision concernant leur devenir. Cette relative 'déchéance' de leur libre arbitre tient d'abord à une gouvernance qui fuit la région : les rachats d'entreprises régionales de taille moyenne par des firmes de plus grande taille se traduit souvent par la suppression de toute structure humaine et décisionnelle autre que de production en région. La dépendance croissante envers les circuits de discount, la substitution des 'marques propres' des entreprises par des produits 'premiers prix' et 'sous marque de distributeur', procède du même affaiblissement de la gouvernance régionale. Partant de ce principe que les marchés actuels sont saturés et que les prix des produits 'standards' actuels ne peuvent que continuer de baisser, il reste donc le plus difficile à accomplir : trouver de nouveaux débouchés et/ou trouver de nouveaux produits ou services. A l'aube d'une sortie de l'actuel marasme (du moins si l'on en croit les indicateurs économiques de ces derniers mois), une relance durable de la dynamique agroalimentaire du Languedoc Roussillon ne peut donc, à notre sens, provenir que du renforcement de trois orientations stratégiques porteuses d'avenir : innover plus, mieux défendre ses marques et exporter plus. Les articles présentés dans ce cahier de recherche explorent ces orientations, mettent en exergue les implications managériales issues des résultats observés et présentent les pistes de recherche future.CORPORATE STRATEGY; INNOVATION; SME; FOOD INDUSTRY; BRAND; FINANCING; GROWTH; PERFORMANCE; QUALITY; TERROIR; GOVERNANCE; WINE PROCESSING INDUSTRY; NICT; LANGUEDOC ROUSSILLON

The luminosity evolution over the EQuiTemporal Surfaces in the prompt emission of Gamma-Ray Bursts

Due to the ultrarelativistic velocity of the expanding "fireshell" (Lorentz gamma factor \gamma \sim 10^2 - 10^3), photons emitted at the same time from the fireshell surface do not reach the observer at the same arrival time. In interpreting Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) it is crucial to determine the properties of the EQuiTemporal Surfaces (EQTSs): the locus of points which are source of radiation reaching the observer at the same arrival time. In the current literature this analysis is performed only in the latest phases of the afterglow. Here we study the distribution of the GRB bolometric luminosity over the EQTSs, with special attention to the prompt emission phase. We analyze as well the temporal evolution of the EQTS apparent size in the sky. We use the analytic solutions of the equations of motion of the fireshell and the corresponding analytic expressions of the EQTSs which have been presented in recent works and which are valid for both the fully radiative and the adiabatic dynamics. We find the novel result that at the beginning of the prompt emission the most luminous regions of the EQTSs are the ones closest to the line of sight. On the contrary, in the late prompt emission and in the early afterglow phases the most luminous EQTS regions are the ones closest to the boundary of the visible region. This transition in the emitting region may lead to specific observational signatures, i.e. an anomalous spectral evolution, in the rising part or at the peak of the prompt emission. We find as well an expression for the apparent radius of the EQTS in the sky, valid in both the fully radiative and the adiabatic regimes. Such considerations are essential for the theoretical interpretation of the prompt emission phase of GRBs.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, in the Proceedings of the 1st Galileo-Xu GuangQi Meeting, October 26-30, 2009, Shangha

Times-To-Default:Life Cycle, Global and Industry Cycle Impact

This paper studies times-to-default of individual firms across risk classes. Using Standard & Poor’s ratings database we investigate common drivers of default probabilities and address two shortcomings of many papers in the credit literature. First, we identify relevant determinants of default intensities using business cycle and credit market proxies in addition to financial markets indicators, and reveal the time-span of their impacts. We show that misspecifications of financial based factor models are largely corrected by non financial information. Second, we show that past economic conditions are of prime importance in explaining probability changes: current shocks and long term trends jointly determine default probabilities. Finally, we exhibit industry contagion indicators which might be helpful to capture leading and persistency patterns of the default cycle.censored durations; proportional hazard; business cycle; credit cycle; default determinants; default prediction

On the assimilation of SWOT type data into 2D shallow-water models

In river hydraulics, assimilation of water level measurements at gauging stations is well controlled, while assimilation of images is still delicate. In the present talk, we address the richness of satellite mapped information to constrain a 2D shallow-water model, but also related difficulties. 2D shallow models may be necessary for small scale modelling in particular for low-water and flood plain flows. Since in both cases, the dynamics of the wet dry front is essential, one has to elaborate robust and accurate solvers. In this contribution we introduce robust second order, stable finite volume scheme [CoMaMoViDaLa]. Comparisons of real like tests cases with more classical solvers highlight the importance of an accurate flood plain modelling. A preliminary inverse study is presented in a flood plain flow case, [LaMo] [HoLaMoPu]. As a first step, a 0th order data processing model improves observation operator and produces more reliable water level derived from rough measurements [PuRa]. Then, both model and flow behaviours can be better understood thanks to variational sensitivities based on a gradient computation and adjoint equations. It can reveal several difficulties that a model designer has to tackle. Next, a 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm used with spatialized data leads to improved model calibration and potentially leads to identify river discharges. All the algorithms are implemented into DassFlow software (Fortran, MPI, adjoint) [Da]. All these results and experiments (accurate wet-dry front dynamics, sensitivities analysis, identification of discharges and calibration of model) are currently performed in view to use data from the future SWOT mission