Three-dimensional parameterizations of the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux in the Earth's atmosphere

We present a new set of statistical-dynamical equations (SDEs) which can accurately reproduce the three-dimensional atmospheric fields of synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux. The set of equations is closed by finding proper parameterizations for the vertical macro-turbulent diffusion coefficient and ageostrophic terms. The equations have been implemented in a new SD atmosphere model, named <i>Aeolus</i>. We show that the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum fluxes generated by the model are in good agreement with empirical data, which were derived from bandpass-filtered ERA-40 data. In addition to present-day climate, the model is tested for substantially colder (last glacial maximum) and warmer (2×CO<sub>2</sub>) climates, and shown to be in agreement with general circulation model (GCM) results. With the derived equations, one can efficiently study the position and strength of storm tracks under different climate scenarios with calculation time a fraction of those of GCMs. This work prepares ground for the development of a new generation of fast Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity which are able to perform multi-millennia simulations in a reasonable time frame while appropriately accounting for the climatic effect of storm tracks

Anomalous response of superconducting titanium nitride resonators to terahertz radiation

We present an experimental study of KIDs fabricated of atomic layer deposited TiN films, and characterized at radiation frequencies of $350$~GHz. The responsivity to radiation is measured and found to increase with increasing radiation powers, opposite to what is expected from theory and observed for hybrid niobium titanium nitride / aluminium (NbTiN/Al) and all-aluminium (all-Al) KIDs. The noise is found to be independent of the level of the radiation power. The noise equivalent power (NEP) improves with higher radiation powers, also opposite to what is observed and well understood for hybrid NbTiN/Al and all-Al KIDs. We suggest that an inhomogeneous state of these disordered superconductors should be used to explain these observations

Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach

The alternation of active and break phases in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall at intraseasonal timescales characterizes each ISM season. Both tropical and mid-latitude drivers influence this intraseasonal ISM variability. The circumglobal teleconnection observed in boreal summer drives intraseasonal variability across the mid-latitudes, and a two-way interaction between the ISM and the circumglobal teleconnection pattern has been hypothesized. We use causal discovery algorithms to test the ISM circumglobal teleconnection hypothesis in a causal framework. A robust causal link from the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic region to ISM rainfall is identified, and we estimate the normalized causal effect (CE) of this link to be about 0.2 (a 1 standard deviation shift in the circumglobal teleconnection causes a 0.2 standard deviation shift in the ISM rainfall 1 week later). The ISM rainfall feeds back on the circumglobal teleconnection pattern, however weakly. Moreover, we identify a negative feedback between strong updraft located over India and the Bay of Bengal and the ISM rainfall acting at a biweekly timescale, with enhanced ISM rainfall following strong updraft by 1 week. This mechanism is possibly related to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The updraft has the strongest CE of 0.5, while the Madden–Julian oscillation variability has a CE of 0.2–0.3. Our results show that most of the ISM variability on weekly timescales comes from these tropical drivers, though the mid-latitude teleconnection also exerts a substantial influence. Identifying these local and remote drivers paves the way for improved subseasonal forecasts

I cambiamenti climatici: la sfida del XXI secolo

There is a large gap between the actions required to avoid a dangerous warming of the planet, and those already decided to contrast it. The more time passes, the more the pessimistic visions obtain valid motivations and reasons. In order to radically change in few decades an energetic system and a predatory attitude towards the planet’s resources, it is necessary to recognize the climate crisis as a systemic one, as a problem of justice and equity for the future generations. The climate science should help to understand the importance of this challenge, by emphasizing the consequences of today’s decisions for the future generations. To recover our reasons to deal with posterity, both as individuals and community, is a bigger endeavor. To understand the importance of the climate change requires not only more knowledge, but also the acceptance of the planetary limits, the redefinition of human expectations, and also a level of emotional understanding that is not sufficient today

Controls of bathymetric relief on hydrothermal fluid flow at mid-ocean ridges

We present quantitative modeling results for the effects of surface relief on hydrothermal convection at ocean-spreading centers investigating how vent site locations and subsurface flow patterns are affected by bathymetry induced sub-seafloor pressure variations. The model is based on a 2-D FEM solver for fluid flow in porous media and is used to simulate hydrothermal convection systematically in 375 synthetic studies. The results of these studies show that bathymetric relief has a profound effect on hydrothermal flow: bathymetric highs induce subsurface pressure variations that can deviate upwelling zones and favor venting at structural highs. The deviation angle from vertical upwelling can be expressed by a single linear dependence relating deviation angle to bathymetric slope and depth of the heat source. These findings are confirmed in two case studies for the East Pacific Rise at 9°30′N and Lucky Strike hydrothermal fields. In both cases, it is possible to predict the observed vent field locations only if bathymetry is taken into account. Our results thereby show that bathymetric relief should be considered in simulations of submarine hydrothermal systems and plays a key role especially in focusing venting of across axis hydrothermal flow onto the ridge axis of fast spreading ridges

Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation

Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action 1 , 2 . We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation

Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather

Copyright © 2013 American Geophysical UnionThis study examines observed changes (1979–2011) in atmospheric planetary-wave amplitude over northern mid-latitudes, which have been proposed as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather extremes. We use two distinct but equally-valid definitions of planetary-wave amplitude, termed meridional amplitude, a measure of north-south meandering, and zonal amplitude, a measure of the intensity of atmospheric ridges and troughs at 45°N. Statistically significant changes in either metric are limited to few seasons, wavelengths, and longitudinal sectors. However in summer, we identify significant increases in meridional amplitude over Europe, but significant decreases in zonal amplitude hemispherically, and also individually over Europe and Asia. Therefore, we argue that possible connections between Arctic amplification and planetary waves, and implications of these, are sensitive to how waves are conceptualized. The contrasting meridional and zonal amplitude trends have different and complex possible implications for midlatitude weather, and we encourage further work to better understand these

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature via the DOI in this record.The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred research activities that reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather: changes in storm tracks, the jet stream, and planetary waves and their associated energy propagation. Through changes in these key atmospheric features, it is possible, in principle, for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather. However, because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncertainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain. We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding of the influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events