Embedding laws in diffusions by functions of time

We present a constructive probabilistic proof of the fact that if $B=(B_t)_{t\ge0}$ is standard Brownian motion started at $0$, and $\mu$ is a given probability measure on $\mathbb{R}$ such that $\mu(\{0\})=0$, then there exists a unique left-continuous increasing function $b:(0,\infty)\rightarrow\mathbb{R}\cup\{+\infty\}$ and a unique left-continuous decreasing function $c:(0,\infty)\rightarrow\mathbb{R}\cup\{-\infty\}$ such that $B$ stopped at $\tau_{b,c}=\inf\{t>0\vert B_t\ge b(t)$ or $B_t\le c(t)\}$ has the law $\mu$. The method of proof relies upon weak convergence arguments arising from Helly's selection theorem and makes use of the L\'{e}vy metric which appears to be novel in the context of embedding theorems. We show that $\tau_{b,c}$ is minimal in the sense of Monroe so that the stopped process $B^{\tau_{b,c}}=(B_{t\wedge\tau_{b,c}})_{t\ge0}$ satisfies natural uniform integrability conditions expressed in terms of $\mu$. We also show that $\tau_{b,c}$ has the smallest truncated expectation among all stopping times that embed $\mu$ into $B$. The main results extend from standard Brownian motion to all recurrent diffusion processes on the real line.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOP941 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An Optimal Skorokhod Embedding for Diffusions

Given a Brownian motion $B_t$ and a general target law $\mu$ (not necessarily centered or even integrable) we show how to construct an embedding of $\mu$ in $B$. This embedding is an extension of an embedding due to Perkins, and is optimal in the sense that it simultaneously minimises the distribution of the maximum and maximises the distribution of the minimum among all embeddings of $\mu$. The embedding is then applied to regular diffusions, and used to characterise the target laws for which a $H^p$-embedding may be found.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figure

Classes of Skorokhod Embeddings for the Simple Symmetric Random Walk

The Skorokhod Embedding problem is well understood when the underlying process is a Brownian motion. We examine the problem when the underlying is the simple symmetric random walk and when no external randomisation is allowed. We prove that any measure on Z can be embedded by means of a minimal stopping time. However, in sharp contrast to the Brownian setting, we show that the set of measures which can be embedded in a uniformly integrable way is strictly smaller then the set of centered probability measures: specifically it is a fractal set which we characterise as an iterated function system. Finally, we define the natural extension of several known constructions from the Brownian setting and show that these constructions require us to further restrict the sets of target laws

Frequentist statistics as a theory of inductive inference

After some general remarks about the interrelation between philosophical and statistical thinking, the discussion centres largely on significance tests. These are defined as the calculation of $p$-values rather than as formal procedures for ``acceptance'' and ``rejection.'' A number of types of null hypothesis are described and a principle for evidential interpretation set out governing the implications of $p$-values in the specific circumstances of each application, as contrasted with a long-run interpretation. A variety of more complicated situations are discussed in which modification of the simple $p$-value may be essential.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000400 in the IMS Lecture Notes--Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Application of theory to propeller design

The various theories concerning propeller design are discussed. The use of digital computers to obtain specific blade shapes to meet appropriate flow conditions is emphasized. The development of lifting-line and lifting surface configurations is analyzed. Ship propulsive performance and basic propeller design considerations are investigated. The characteristics of supercavitating propellers are compared with those of subcavitating propellers

Fracture mechanics evaluation of Ti-6A1-4V pressure vessels

Computer program calculates maximum potential flaw depth after specific cyclic pressure history. Kobayashi's solution to critical stress intensity equation and empirical relation for flaw growth rate are used. Program assesses pressure vessels of any material but only cylindrical or spherical shapes