Improved maximum likelihood estimators in a heteroskedastic errors-in-variables model

This paper develops a bias correction scheme for a multivariate heteroskedastic errors-in-variables model. The applicability of this model is justified in areas such as astrophysics, epidemiology and analytical chemistry, where the variables are subject to measurement errors and the variances vary with the observations. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the performance of the corrected estimators. The numerical results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates. We also give an application to a real data set.Comment: 12 pages. Statistical Paper

Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

Doses of neighborhood nature: the benefits for mental health of living with nature

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from OUP via the DOI in this record.Experiences of nature provide many mental health benefits, particularly for people living in urban areas. The natural characteristics of city residents’ neighborhoods are likely to be critical determinants of the daily nature dose that they receive, however which characteristics are important remains unclear. One possibility is that the greatest benefits are provided by characteristics that are most visible during the day and so most likely to be experienced by people. We demonstrate that of five neighborhood nature characteristics tested, vegetation cover and afternoon bird abundances were positively associated with a lower prevalence of depression, anxiety and stress. Further, dose-response modelling shows a threshold response where the population prevalence of mental health issues is significantly lower beyond minimum limits of neighborhood vegetation cover (depression >20% cover, anxiety >30% cover, stress >20% cover). Our findings demonstrate quantifiable associations of mental health with the characteristics of nearby nature that people actually experience

(Micro)evolutionary changes and the evolutionary potential of bird migration

Seasonal migration is the yearly long-distance movement of individuals between their breeding and wintering grounds. Individuals from nearly every animal group exhibit this behavior, but probably the most iconic migration is carried out by birds, from the classic V-shape formation of geese on migration to the amazing nonstop long-distance flights undertaken by Arctic Terns Sterna paradisaea. In this chapter, we discuss how seasonal migration has shaped the field of evolution. First, this behavior is known to turn on and off quite rapidly, but controversy remains concerning where this behavior first evolved geographically and whether the ancestral state was sedentary or migratory (Fig. 7.1d, e). We review recent work using new analytical techniques to provide insight into this topic. Second, it is widely accepted that there is a large genetic basis to this trait, especially in groups like songbirds that migrate alone and at night precluding any opportunity for learning. Key hypotheses on this topic include shared genetic variation used by different populations to migrate and only few genes being involved in its control. We summarize recent work using new techniques for both phenotype and genotype characterization to evaluate and challenge these hypotheses. Finally, one topic that has received less attention is the role these differences in migratory phenotype could play in the process of speciation. Specifically, many populations breed next to one another but take drastically different routes on migration (Fig. 7.2). This difference could play an important role in reducing gene flow between populations, but our inability to track most birds on migration has so far precluded evaluations of this hypothesis. The advent of new tracking techniques means we can track many more birds with increasing accuracy on migration, and this work has provided important insight into migration's role in speciation that we will review here

The Evolution of Bat Vestibular Systems in the Face of Potential Antagonistic Selection Pressures for Flight and Echolocation

PMCID: PMC3634842This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Circumstellar discs: What will be next?

This prospective chapter gives our view on the evolution of the study of circumstellar discs within the next 20 years from both observational and theoretical sides. We first present the expected improvements in our knowledge of protoplanetary discs as for their masses, sizes, chemistry, the presence of planets as well as the evolutionary processes shaping these discs. We then explore the older debris disc stage and explain what will be learnt concerning their birth, the intrinsic links between these discs and planets, the hot dust and the gas detected around main sequence stars as well as discs around white dwarfs.Comment: invited review; comments welcome (32 pages

Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG-supplemented formula expands butyrate-producing bacterial strains in food allergic infants.

Dietary intervention with extensively hydrolyzed casein formula supplemented with Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (EHCF+LGG) accelerates tolerance acquisition in infants with cow's milk allergy (CMA). We examined whether this effect is attributable, at least in part, to an influence on the gut microbiota. Fecal samples from healthy controls (n=20) and from CMA infants (n=19) before and after treatment with EHCF with (n=12) and without (n=7) supplementation with LGG were compared by 16S rRNA-based operational taxonomic unit clustering and oligotyping. Differential feature selection and generalized linear model fitting revealed that the CMA infants have a diverse gut microbial community structure dominated by Lachnospiraceae (20.5±9.7%) and Ruminococcaceae (16.2±9.1%). Blautia, Roseburia and Coprococcus were significantly enriched following treatment with EHCF and LGG, but only one genus, Oscillospira, was significantly different between infants that became tolerant and those that remained allergic. However, most tolerant infants showed a significant increase in fecal butyrate levels, and those taxa that were significantly enriched in these samples, Blautia and Roseburia, exhibited specific strain-level demarcations between tolerant and allergic infants. Our data suggest that EHCF+LGG promotes tolerance in infants with CMA, in part, by influencing the strain-level bacterial community structure of the infant gut

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice