Improved maximum likelihood estimators in a heteroskedastic errors-in-variables model

This paper develops a bias correction scheme for a multivariate heteroskedastic errors-in-variables model. The applicability of this model is justified in areas such as astrophysics, epidemiology and analytical chemistry, where the variables are subject to measurement errors and the variances vary with the observations. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the performance of the corrected estimators. The numerical results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates. We also give an application to a real data set.Comment: 12 pages. Statistical Paper

The vanishing ideal of a finite set of points with multiplicity structures

Given a finite set of arbitrarily distributed points in affine space with arbitrary multiplicity structures, we present an algorithm to compute the reduced Groebner basis of the vanishing ideal under the lexicographic ordering. Our method discloses the essential geometric connection between the relative position of the points with multiplicity structures and the quotient basis of the vanishing ideal, so we will explicitly know the set of leading terms of elements of I. We split the problem into several smaller ones which can be solved by induction over variables and then use our new algorithm for intersection of ideals to compute the result of the original problem. The new algorithm for intersection of ideals is mainly based on the Extended Euclidean Algorithm.Comment: 12 pages,12 figures,ASCM 201

Formation of Methane Hydrate in the Presence of Natural and Synthetic Nanoparticles

Natural gas hydrates occur widely on the ocean-bed and in permafrost regions, and have potential as an untapped energy resource. Their formation and growth, however, poses major problems for the energy sector due to their tendency to block oil and gas pipelines, whereas their melting is viewed as a potential contributor to climate change. Although recent advances have been made in understanding bulk methane hydrate formation, the effect of impurity particles, which are always present under conditions relevant to industry and the environment, remains an open question. Here we present results from neutron scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations that show that the formation of methane hydrate is insensitive to the addition of a wide range of impurity particles. Our analysis shows that this is due to the different chemical natures of methane and water, with methane generally excluded from the volume surrounding the nanoparticles. This has important consequences for our understanding of the mechanism of hydrate nucleation and the design of new inhibitor molecules

Fluctuations, Saturation, and Diffractive Excitation in High Energy Collisions

Diffractive excitation is usually described by the Good--Walker formalism for low masses, and by the triple-Regge formalism for high masses. In the Good--Walker formalism the cross section is determined by the fluctuations in the interaction. In this paper we show that by taking the fluctuations in the BFKL ladder into account, it is possible to describe both low and high mass excitation by the Good--Walker mechanism. In high energy $pp$ collisions the fluctuations are strongly suppressed by saturation, which implies that pomeron exchange does not factorise between DIS and $pp$ collisions. The Dipole Cascade Model reproduces the expected triple-Regge form for the bare pomeron, and the triple-pomeron coupling is estimated.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figure

Diabetes status and post-load plasma glucose concentration in relation to site-specific cancer mortality: findings from the original Whitehall study

ObjectiveWhile several studies have reported on the relation of diabetes status with pancreatic cancer risk, the predictive value of this disorder for other malignancies is unclear. Methods: The Whitehall study, a 25year follow-up for mortality experience of 18,006 men with data on post-challenge blood glucose and self-reported diabetes, allowed us to address these issues. Results: There were 2158 cancer deaths at follow-up. Of the 15 cancer outcomes, diabetes status was positively associated with mortality from carcinoma of the pancreas and liver, while the relationship with lung cancer was inverse, after controlling for a range of potential covariates and mediators which included obesity and socioeconomic position. After excluding deaths occurring in the first 10years of follow-up to examine the effect of reverse causality, the magnitude of the relationships for carcinoma of the pancreas and lung was little altered, while for liver cancer it was markedly attenuated. Conclusions: In the present study, diabetes status was related to pancreatic, liver, and lung cancer risk. Cohorts with serially collected data on blood glucose and covariates are required to further examine this area

Issues potentially affecting quality of life arising from long-term medicines use: a qualitative study

Background Polypharmacy is increasing and managing large number of medicines may create a burden for patients. Many patients have negative views of medicines and their use can adversely affect quality of life. No studies have specifically explored the impact of general long-term medicines use on quality of life. Objective To determine the issues which patients taking long-term medicines consider affect their day-to-day lives, including quality of life. Setting Four primary care general practices in North West England Methods Face-to-face interviews with adults living at home, prescribed four or more regular medicines for at least 1 year. Interviewees were identified from primary care medical records and purposively selected to ensure different types of medicines use. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results Twenty-one interviews were conducted and analysed. Patients used an average of 7.8 medicines, 51 % were preventive, 40 % for symptom relief and 9 % treatment. Eight themes emerged: relationships with health professionals, practicalities, information, efficacy, side effects, attitudes, impact and control. Ability to discuss medicines with health professionals varied and many views were coloured by negative experiences, mainly with doctors. All interviewees had developed routines for using multiple medicines, some requiring considerable effort. Few felt able to exert control over medicines routines specified by health professionals. Over half sought additional information about medicines whereas others avoided this, trusting in doctors to guide their medicines use. Patients recognised their inability to assess efficacy for many medicines, notably those used for prophylaxis. All were concerned about possible side effects and some had poor experiences of discussing concerns with doctors. Medicines led to restrictions on social activities and personal life to the extent that, for some, life can revolve around medicines. Conclusion There is a multiplicity and complexity of issues surrounding medicines use, which impact on day-to-day lives for patients with long-term conditions. While most patients adapt to long-term medicines use, others did so at some cost to their quality of life

On the numerical integration of isogeometric interface elements

Zero-thickness interface elements are commonly used in computational mechanics to model material interfaces or to introduce discontinuities. The latter class requires the existence of a non-compliant interface prior to the onset of fracture initiation. This is accomplished by assigning a high dummy stiffness to the interface prior to cracking. This dummy stiffness is known to introduce oscillations in the traction profile when using Gauss quadrature for the interface elements, but these oscillations are removed when resorting to a Newton-Cotes integration scheme 1. The traction oscillations are aggravated for interface elements that use B-splines or non-uniform rational B-splines as basis functions (isogeometric interface elements), and worse, do not disappear when using Newton-Cotes quadrature. An analysis is presented of this phenomenon, including eigenvalue analyses, and it appears that the use of lumped integration (at the control points) is the only way to avoid the oscillations in isogeometric interface elements. New findings have also been obtained for standard interface elements, for example that oscillations occur in the relative displacements at the interface irrespective of the value of the dummy stiffness

Exploring the equity of GP practice prescribing rates for selected coronary heart disease drugs: a multiple regression analysis with proxies of healthcare need

Background There is a small, but growing body of literature highlighting inequities in GP practice prescribing rates for many drug therapies. The aim of this paper is to further explore the equity of prescribing for five major CHD drug groups and to explain the amount of variation in GP practice prescribing rates that can be explained by a range of healthcare needs indicators (HCNIs). Methods The study involved a cross-sectional secondary analysis in four primary care trusts (PCTs 1–4) in the North West of England, including 132 GP practices. Prescribing rates (average daily quantities per registered patient aged over 35 years) and HCNIs were developed for all GP practices. Analysis was undertaken using multiple linear regression. Results Between 22–25% of the variation in prescribing rates for statins, beta-blockers and bendrofluazide was explained in the multiple regression models. Slightly more variation was explained for ACE inhibitors (31.6%) and considerably more for aspirin (51.2%). Prescribing rates were positively associated with CHD hospital diagnoses and procedures for all drug groups other than ACE inhibitors. The proportion of patients aged 55–74 years was positively related to all prescribing rates other than aspirin, where they were positively related to the proportion of patients aged >75 years. However, prescribing rates for statins and ACE inhibitors were negatively associated with the proportion of patients aged >75 years in addition to the proportion of patients from minority ethnic groups. Prescribing rates for aspirin, bendrofluazide and all CHD drugs combined were negatively associated with deprivation. Conclusion Although around 25–50% of the variation in prescribing rates was explained by HCNIs, this varied markedly between PCTs and drug groups. Prescribing rates were generally characterised by both positive and negative associations with HCNIs, suggesting possible inequities in prescribing rates on the basis of ethnicity, deprivation and the proportion of patients aged over 75 years (for statins and ACE inhibitors, but not for aspirin)

Window of Opportunity: War and the Origins of Parliament

Two important puzzles characterize the development of pre-modern Eurasian polities. First, most rulers convened councils of nobles, but only European monarchs expanded them to create parliaments. Second, war was common throughout Eurasia, but only in Europe did it correlate with the formation of parliaments. We advance a new argument about the emergence of parliaments that accounts for both stylized facts while integrating the literature highlighting the rulers' need to finance wars with that emphasizing the importance of the medieval communal revolution. Using novel data, we document a 'no communes, no parliaments' rule: monarchs established parliaments only after they had fostered the creation of self-governing towns (aka communes). We also show that war was a significant predictor of parliamentary births across medieval Europe - but only during a window of opportunity that opened after a polity had experienced the communal revolution

Steady-state modulation of voltage-gated K+ channels in rat arterial smooth muscle by cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase and protein phosphatase 2B

Voltage-gated potassium channels (Kv) are important regulators of membrane potential in vascular smooth muscle cells, which is integral to controlling intracellular Ca2+ concentration and regulating vascular tone. Previous work indicates that Kv channels can be modulated by receptor-driven alterations of cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity. Here, we demonstrate that Kv channel activity is maintained by tonic activity of PKA. Whole-cell recording was used to assess the effect of manipulating PKA signalling on Kv and ATP-dependent K+ channels of rat mesenteric artery smooth muscle cells. Application of PKA inhibitors, KT5720 or H89, caused a significant inhibition of Kv currents. Tonic PKA-mediated activation of Kv appears maximal as application of isoprenaline (a β-adrenoceptor agonist) or dibutyryl-cAMP failed to enhance Kv currents. We also show that this modulation of Kv by PKA can be reversed by protein phosphatase 2B/calcineurin (PP2B). PKA-dependent inhibition of Kv by KT5720 can be abrogated by pre-treatment with the PP2B inhibitor cyclosporin A, or inclusion of a PP2B auto-inhibitory peptide in the pipette solution. Finally, we demonstrate that tonic PKA-mediated modulation of Kv requires intact caveolae. Pre-treatment of the cells with methyl-β-cyclodextrin to deplete cellular cholesterol, or adding caveolin-scaffolding domain peptide to the pipette solution to disrupt caveolae-dependent signalling each attenuated PKA-mediated modulation of the Kv current. These findings highlight a novel, caveolae-dependent, tonic modulatory role of PKA on Kv channels providing new insight into mechanisms and the potential for pharmacological manipulation of vascular tone