Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

Anti-Allergic Cromones Inhibit Histamine and Eicosanoid Release from Activated Human and Murine Mast Cells by Releasing Annexin A1

PMCID: PMC3601088This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Eta Carinae and the Luminous Blue Variables

We evaluate the place of Eta Carinae amongst the class of luminous blue variables (LBVs) and show that the LBV phenomenon is not restricted to extremely luminous objects like Eta Car, but extends luminosities as low as log(L/Lsun) = 5.4 - corresponding to initial masses ~25 Msun, and final masses as low as ~10-15 Msun. We present a census of S Doradus variability, and discuss basic LBV properties, their mass-loss behaviour, and whether at maximum light they form pseudo-photospheres. We argue that those objects that exhibit giant Eta Car-type eruptions are most likely related to the more common type of S Doradus variability. Alternative atmospheric models as well as sub-photospheric models for the instability are presented, but the true nature of the LBV phenomenon remains as yet elusive. We end with a discussion on the evolutionary status of LBVs - highlighting recent indications that some LBVs may be in a direct pre-supernova state, in contradiction to the standard paradigm for massive star evolution.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, Review Chapter in "Eta Carinae and the supernova imposters" (eds R. Humphreys and K. Davidson) new version submitted to Springe

Survey of the needs of patients with spinal cord injury: impact and priority for improvement in hand function in tetraplegics\ud

Objective: To investigate the impact of upper extremity deficit in subjects with tetraplegia.\ud \ud Setting: The United Kingdom and The Netherlands.\ud \ud Study design: Survey among the members of the Dutch and UK Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Associations.\ud \ud Main outcome parameter: Indication of expected improvement in quality of life (QOL) on a 5-point scale in relation to improvement in hand function and seven other SCI-related impairments.\ud \ud Results: In all, 565 subjects with tetraplegia returned the questionnaire (overall response of 42%). Results in the Dutch and the UK group were comparable. A total of 77% of the tetraplegics expected an important or very important improvement in QOL if their hand function improved. This is comparable to their expectations with regard to improvement in bladder and bowel function. All other items were scored lower.\ud \ud Conclusion: This is the first study in which the impact of upper extremity impairment has been assessed in a large sample of tetraplegic subjects and compared to other SCI-related impairments that have a major impact on the life of subjects with SCI. The present study indicates a high impact as well as a high priority for improvement in hand function in tetraplegics.\ud \u

Complete mitochondrial DNA sequences provide new insights into the Polynesian motif and the peopling of Madagascar

More than a decade of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) studies have given the 'Polynesian motif' renowned status as a marker for tracing the late-Holocene expansion of Austronesian speaking populations. Despite considerable research on the Polynesian motif in Oceania, there has been little equivalent work on the western edge of its expansion - leaving major issues unresolved regarding the motif's evolutionary history. This has also led to considerable uncertainty regarding the settlement of Madagascar. In this study, we assess mtDNA variation in 266 individuals from three Malagasy ethnic groups: the Mikea, Vezo, and Merina. Complete mtDNA genome sequencing reveals a new variant of the Polynesian motif in Madagascar; two coding region mutations define a Malagasy-specific sub-branch. This newly defined 'Malagasy motif' occurs at high frequency in all three ethnic groups (13-50%), and its phylogenetic position, geographic distribution, and estimated age all support a recent origin, but without conclusively identifying a specific source region. Nevertheless, the haplotype's limited diversity, similar to those of other mtDNA haplogroups found in our Malagasy groups, best supports a small number of initial settlers arriving to Madagascar through the same migratory process. Finally, the discovery of this lineage provides a set of new polymorphic positions to help localize the Austronesian ancestors of the Malagasy, as well as uncover the origin and evolution of the Polynesian motif itself

Interleukin-1 polymorphisms associated with increased risk of gastric cancer

Helicobacter pylori infection is associated with a variety of clinical outcomes including gastric cancer and duodenal ulcer disease. The reasons for this variation are not clear, but the gastric physiological response is influenced by the severity and anatomical distribution of gastritis induced by H. pylori. Thus, individuals with gastritis predominantly localized to the antrum retain normal (or even high) acid secretion, whereas individuals with extensive corpus gastritis develop hypochlorhydria and gastric atrophy, which are presumptive precursors of gastric cancer. Here we report that interleukin-1 gene cluster polymorphisms suspected of enhancing production of interleukin-1-beta are associated with an increased risk of both hypochlorhydria induced by H. pylori and gastric cancer. Two of these polymorphism are in near-complete linkage disequilibrium and one is a TATA-box polymorphism that markedly affects DNA-protein interactions in vitro. The association with disease may be explained by the biological properties of interleukin-1-beta, which is an important pro-inflammatory cytokine and a powerful inhibitor of gastric acid secretion. Host genetic factors that affect interleukin-1-beta may determine why some individuals infected with H. pylori develop gastric cancer while others do no

Quantitative trait loci conferring grain mineral nutrient concentrations in durum wheat 3 wild emmer wheat RIL population

Mineral nutrient malnutrition, and particularly deficiency in zinc and iron, afflicts over 3 billion people worldwide. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum turgidum ssp. dicoccoides, genepool harbors a rich allelic repertoire for mineral nutrients in the grain. The genetic and physiological basis of grain protein, micronutrients (zinc, iron, copper and manganese) and macronutrients (calcium, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus and sulfur) concentration was studied in tetraploid wheat population of 152 recombinant inbred lines (RILs), derived from a cross between durum wheat (cv. Langdon) and wild emmer (accession G18-16). Wide genetic variation was found among the RILs for all grain minerals, with considerable transgressive effect. A total of 82 QTLs were mapped for 10 minerals with LOD score range of 3.2–16.7. Most QTLs were in favor of the wild allele (50 QTLs). Fourteen pairs of QTLs for the same trait were mapped to seemingly homoeologous positions, reflecting synteny between the A and B genomes. Significant positive correlation was found between grain protein concentration (GPC), Zn, Fe and Cu, which was supported by significant overlap between the respective QTLs, suggesting common physiological and/or genetic factors controlling the concentrations of these mineral nutrients. Few genomic regions (chromosomes 2A, 5A, 6B and 7A) were found to harbor clusters of QTLs for GPC and other nutrients. These identified QTLs may facilitate the use of wild alleles for improving grain nutritional quality of elite wheat cultivars, especially in terms of protein, Zn and Fe

Two-channel Kondo effect and renormalization flow with macroscopic quantum charge states

Many-body correlations and macroscopic quantum behaviors are fascinating condensed matter problems. A powerful test-bed for the many-body concepts and methods is the Kondo model which entails the coupling of a quantum impurity to a continuum of states. It is central in highly correlated systems and can be explored with tunable nanostructures. Although Kondo physics is usually associated with the hybridization of itinerant electrons with microscopic magnetic moments, theory predicts that it can arise whenever degenerate quantum states are coupled to a continuum. Here we demonstrate the previously elusive `charge' Kondo effect in a hybrid metal-semiconductor implementation of a single-electron transistor, with a quantum pseudospin-1/2 constituted by two degenerate macroscopic charge states of a metallic island. In contrast to other Kondo nanostructures, each conduction channel connecting the island to an electrode constitutes a distinct and fully tunable Kondo channel, thereby providing an unprecedented access to the two-channel Kondo effect and a clear path to multi-channel Kondo physics. Using a weakly coupled probe, we reveal the renormalization flow, as temperature is reduced, of two Kondo channels competing to screen the charge pseudospin. This provides a direct view of how the predicted quantum phase transition develops across the symmetric quantum critical point. Detuning the pseudospin away from degeneracy, we demonstrate, on a fully characterized device, quantitative agreement with the predictions for the finite-temperature crossover from quantum criticality.Comment: Letter (5 pages, 4 figures) and Methods (10 pages, 6 figures