A generalized approach for producing, quantifying, and validating citizen science data from wildlife images

Citizen science has the potential to expand the scope and scale of research in ecology and conservation, but many professional researchers remain skeptical of data produced by nonexperts. We devised an approach for producing accurate, reliable data from untrained, nonexpert volunteers. On the citizen science website www.snapshotserengeti.org, more than 28,000 volunteers classified 1.51 million images taken in a large-scale camera-trap survey in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Each image was circulated to, on average, 27 volunteers, and their classifications were aggregated using a simple plurality algorithm. We validated the aggregated answers against a data set of 3829 images verified by experts and calculated 3 certainty metrics—level of agreement among classifications (evenness), fraction of classifications supporting the aggregated answer (fraction support), and fraction of classifiers who reported “nothing here” for an image that was ultimately classified as containing an animal (fraction blank)—to measure confidence that an aggregated answer was correct. Overall, aggregated volunteer answers agreed with the expert-verified data on 98% of images, but accuracy differed by species commonness such that rare species had higher rates of false positives and false negatives. Easily calculated analysis of variance and post-hoc Tukey tests indicated that the certainty metrics were significant indicators of whether each image was correctly classified or classifiable. Thus, the certainty metrics can be used to identify images for expert review. Bootstrapping analyses further indicated that 90% of images were correctly classified with just 5 volunteers per image. Species classifications based on the plurality vote of multiple citizen scientists can provide a reliable foundation for large-scale monitoring of African wildlife

Fear of Darkness, the Full Moon and the Nocturnal Ecology of African Lions

Nocturnal carnivores are widely believed to have played an important role in human evolution, driving the need for night-time shelter, the control of fire and our innate fear of darkness. However, no empirical data are available on the effects of darkness on the risks of predation in humans. We performed an extensive analysis of predatory behavior across the lunar cycle on the largest dataset of lion attacks ever assembled and found that African lions are as sensitive to moonlight when hunting humans as when hunting herbivores and that lions are most dangerous to humans when the moon is faint or below the horizon. At night, people are most active between dusk and 10:00 pm, thus most lion attacks occur in the first weeks following the full moon (when the moon rises at least an hour after sunset). Consequently, the full moon is a reliable indicator of impending danger, perhaps helping to explain why the full moon has been the subject of so many myths and misconceptions

Worldwide Prevalence of Lentivirus Infection in Wild Feline Species: Epidemiologic and Phylogenetic Aspects

The natural occurrence of lentiviruses closely related to feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) in nondomestic felid species is shown here to be worldwide. Cross-reactive antibodies to FIV were common in several free-ranging populations of large cats, including East African lions and cheetahs of the Serengeti ecosystem and in puma (also called cougar or mountain lion) populations throughout North America. Infectious puma lentivirus (PLV) was isolated from several Florida panthers, a severely endangered relict puma subspecies inhabiting the Big Cypress Swamp and Everglades ecosystems in southern Florida. Phylogenetic analysis of PLV genomic sequences from disparate geographic isolates revealed appreciable divergence from domestic cat FIV sequences as well as between PLV sequences found in different North American locales. The level of sequence divergence between PLV and FIV was greater than the level of divergence between human and certain simian immunodeficiency viruses, suggesting that the transmission of FIV between feline species is infrequent and parallels in time the emergence of HIV from simian ancestors

Multi-centre parallel arm randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a group-based cognitive behavioural approach to managing fatigue in people with multiple sclerosis

Abstract (provisional) Background Fatigue is one of the most commonly reported and debilitating symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS); approximately two-thirds of people with MS consider it to be one of their three most troubling symptoms. It may limit or prevent participation in everyday activities, work, leisure, and social pursuits, reduce psychological well-being and is one of the key precipitants of early retirement. Energy effectiveness approaches have been shown to be effective in reducing MS-fatigue, increasing self-efficacy and improving quality of life. Cognitive behavioural approaches have been found to be effective for managing fatigue in other conditions, such as chronic fatigue syndrome, and more recently, in MS. The aim of this pragmatic trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a recently developed group-based fatigue management intervention (that blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches) compared with current local practice. Methods This is a multi-centre parallel arm block-randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a six session group-based fatigue management intervention, delivered by health professionals, compared with current local practice. 180 consenting adults with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and significant fatigue levels, recruited via secondary/primary care or newsletters/websites, will be randomised to receive the fatigue management intervention or current local practice. An economic evaluation will be undertaken alongside the trial. Primary outcomes are fatigue severity, self-efficacy and disease-specific quality of life. Secondary outcomes include fatigue impact, general quality of life, mood, activity patterns, and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes in those receiving the fatigue management intervention will be measured 1 week prior to, and 1, 4, and 12 months after the intervention (and at equivalent times in those receiving current local practice). A qualitative component will examine what aspects of the fatigue management intervention participants found helpful/unhelpful and barriers to change. Discussion This trial is the fourth stage of a research programme that has followed the Medical Research Council guidance for developing and evaluating complex interventions. What makes the intervention unique is that it blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches. A potential strength of the intervention is that it could be integrated into existing service delivery models as it has been designed to be delivered by staff already working with people with MS. Service users will be involved throughout this research. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN7651747

Evaluating African horse sickness virus in horses and field-caught Culicoides biting midges on the East Rand, Gauteng Province, South Africa

A prospective study was undertaken during 2013 and 2014, to determine the prevalence of African horse sickness virus (AHSV) in Culicoides midges and the incidence of infection caused by the virus in 28 vaccinated resident horses on two equine establishments on the East Rand, Gauteng Province, South Africa. Field caught Culicoides midges together with whole blood samples from participating horses were collected every two weeks at each establishment. Culicoides midges and blood samples were tested for the presence of AHSV RNA by real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Nine immunised horses became infected with AHSV during the study period, although infections were subclinical. African horse sickness virus was also identified from a field-collected midge pool. The observations recapitulate previously published data in another setting, where further investigation is warranted to determine what role subclinical infection plays in the diseases epidemiology

Multifaceted density dependence: Social structure and seasonality effects on Serengeti lion demography

Interactions between density and environmental conditions have important effects on vital rates and consequently on population dynamics and can take complex pathways in species whose demography is strongly influenced by social context, such as the African lion, Panthera leo. In populations of such species, the response of vital rates to density can vary depending on the social structure (e.g. effects of group size or composition). However, studies assessing density dependence in populations of lions and other social species have seldom considered the effects of multiple socially explicit measures of density, and—more particularly for lions—of nomadic males. Additionally, vital‐rate responses to interactions between the environment and various measures of density remain largely uninvestigated. To fill these knowledge gaps, we aimed to understand how a socially and spatially explicit consideration of density (i.e. at the local scale) and its interaction with environmental seasonality affect vital rates of lions in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used a Bayesian multistate capture–recapture model and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate lion stage‐specific survival and between‐stage transition rates, as well as reproduction probability and recruitment, while testing for season‐specific effects of density measures at the group and home‐range levels. We found evidence for several such effects. For example, resident‐male survival increased more strongly with coalition size in the dry season compared with the wet season, and adult‐female abundance affected subadult survival negatively in the wet season, but positively in the dry season. Additionally, while our models showed no effect of nomadic males on adult‐female survival, they revealed strong effects of nomads on key processes such as reproduction and takeover dynamics. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of accounting for seasonality and social context when assessing the effects of density on vital rates of Serengeti lions and of social species more generally

Multifaceted density dependence: Social structure and seasonality effects on Serengeti lion demography

1. Interactions between density and environmental conditions have important effects on vital rates and consequently on population dynamics and can take complex pathways in species whose demography is strongly influenced by social context, such as the African lion, Panthera leo. In populations of such species, the response of vital rates to density can vary depending on the social structure (e.g. effects of group size or composition). 2. However, studies assessing density dependence in populations of lions and other social species have seldom considered the effects of multiple socially explicit measures of density, and—more particularly for lions—of nomadic males. Additionally, vital-rate responses to interactions between the environment and various measures of density remain largely uninvestigated. 3. To fill these knowledge gaps, we aimed to understand how a socially and spatially explicit consideration of density (i.e. at the local scale) and its interaction with environmental seasonality affect vital rates of lions in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used a Bayesian multistate capture–recapture model and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate lion stage-specific survival and between-stage transition rates, as well as reproduction probability and recruitment, while testing for season-specific effects of density measures at the group and home-range levels. 4. We found evidence for several such effects. For example, resident-male survival increased more strongly with coalition size in the dry season compared with the wet season, and adult-female abundance affected subadult survival negatively in the wet season, but positively in the dry season. Additionally, while our models showed no effect of nomadic males on adult-female survival, they revealed strong effects of nomads on key processes such as reproduction and takeover dynamics. 5. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of accounting for seasonality and social context when assessing the effects of density on vital rates of Serengeti lions and of social species more generally. Bayesian models, demographic rates, density dependence, density–environment interactions, multistate capture–recapture models, socialitypublishedVersio

IMPRESSION – prediction of NMR parameters for 3-dimensional chemical structures using machine learning with near quantum chemical accuracy

The IMPRESSION (Intelligent Machine PREdiction of Shift and Scalar Information Of Nuclei) machine learning system provides an efficient and accurate route to the prediction of NMR parameters from 3-dimensional chemical structures. Here we demonstrate that machine learning predictions, trained on quantum chemical computed values for NMR parameters, are essentially as accurate but computationally much more efficient (tens of milliseconds per molecule) than quantum chemical calculations (hours/days per molecule). Training the machine learning systems on quantum chemical, rather than experimental, data circumvents the need for existence of large, structurally diverse, error-free experimental databases and makes IMPRESSION applicable to solving 3-dimensional problems such as molecular conformation and isomeris