New perspectives for air transport performance

The average delays of flights and passengers are not the same. The air transport industry is lacking passenger-centric metrics; its reporting is flight-centric. We report on the first European network simulation model with explicit passenger itineraries and full delay cost estimations. Trade-offs in performance are assessed using passenger-centric and flight-centric metrics, under a range of novel flight and passenger prioritisation scenarios. The need for passenger-centric metrics is established. Delay propagation is characterised under the scenarios using, inter alia, Granger causality techniques

ComplexityCosts D4.5 - Final Technical Report

Using traffic and passenger itinerary data for the European network, the cost resilience of four mechanisms, with phased stakeholder uptake, has been assessed under explicit, local and disperse disturbance: industrial action and weather. A novel cost resilience metric has demonstrated logical properties and captured cost impacts sensitively. Of these mechanisms, only A-CDM has been cost-benefit analysed in SESAR, yet the other three each demonstrate particular utility. Flight-, passenger- and cost-centric metrics are deployed to assess the mechanisms, with fully costed results presented, based on extensive industry consultation. Initial work on assessing mechanism payback periods has begun

Quantifying resilience in ATM - contrasting the impacts of four mechanisms during disturbance

Using traffic and passenger itinerary data for the European network, the cost resilience of four mechanisms, with phased stakeholder uptake, has been assessed under explicit, local and disperse disturbance: industrial action and weather. A novel cost resilience metric has demonstrated logical properties and captured cost impacts sensitively. Of these mechanisms, only A-CDM has been cost-benefit analysed in SESAR, yet the other three each demonstrate particular utility. Flight-, passenger- and cost-centric metrics are deployed to assess the mechanisms, with fully costed results presented, based on extensive industry consultation. Initial work on assessing mechanism payback periods has begun

The economic value of adding capacity at airports – a data-driven model

This article presents a model for the economic value of adding capacity at airports. We start with an extensive literature review, discussing the main findings covering costs and revenues at airports, in particular related to their capacity. We then proceed to an analysis based on a wide range of data sources (financial, operational, quality of service) which have been synthesised into one database. The analysis itself yields interesting results, such as the presence of distinct types of airport and their characteristics. Broadly based on the knowledge gained from the data analysis, we describe a functional model describing the costs and revenues associated with an increase of capacity at an airport. We show how the model can be calibrated with data and present some preliminary results based on the calibration of Paris Charles de Gaulle airport

Vista D5.1 - Initial Assessment Report

This deliverable presents Vista’s model and its calibration. The features of each of the model layers (strategic, pre-tactical and tactical) are described along with their calibration. A total of 58 scenarios with four foreground factors are modelled. The results of the layers are produced independently to present the capabilities of the system. These initial results are described and the next steps identified

Vista D5.2 - Final Assessment Report

Vista examines the effects of conflicting market forces on European performance in ATM, through the evaluation of impact metrics on four key stakeholders, and the environment. Vista models the current, 2035 and 2050 timeframes based on various factors and their potential evolution. Vista’s model covers the three temporal phases of ATM (strategic, pre-tactical and tactical), and represents a typical (busy) day of operations. The model is able to estimate the impact of factors on the different phases independently, allowing us to capture how indicators change under different scenarios and execution phases. This deliverable presents the final results obtained from the model, together with a detailed description of the various parts of the model, the analysis performed to prepare the data, and the model calibration

Study on the Modelling of Airport Economic Value

The primary objective of the Airport Economic Value project is to assess the value of additional passengers or additional capacity at an airport. It aims to qualify and quantify the main relationships and trade-offs between capacity, quality of service and profitability. This study provides a better understanding of the interdependencies of various KPIs and assesses the existence and behaviour of an airport economic optimum, in a similar way to the early 2000s, when estimating the economic en-route capacity optimum

Passenger-Oriented Enhanced Metrics

We report on a project building the first European ATM simulation combining flight and passenger trip data. New propagation-centric and passenger-centric performance metrics are described. The new metrics will be compared with existing, classical metrics, to compare their respective intelligibility, sensitivity and consistency. The trade-offs in performance across the metrics under a range of flight and passenger prioritisation scenarios will be examined. The corresponding regulatory and socio-political contexts are described. Complexity science techniques demonstrate the need to extend flight-centric network representations to include the passenger perspective

Delay propagation – new metrics, new insights

Network delay propagation is intimately linked with the challenges of managing passenger itineraries and corresponding connections. Airline decision-making governing these processes is driven by operational and regulatory factors. Using the first European network simulation model with explicit passenger itineraries and full delay cost estimations, we explore these factors through various flight and passenger prioritisation rules, assessing the performance impacts. Delay propagation is further characterised under the different prioritisation rules using complexity science techniques such as percolation theory and network attack. The relative effects of randomised and targeted disruption are compared

Building a Holistic ATM Model for Future KPI Trade-Offs

We present the model developed within the Vista project, studying the future evolution of trade-offs between Key Performance Indicators. The model has a very broad scope and aims to simulate the changes that business and regulatory forces have at a strategic, pre-tactical and tactical level. The relevant factors that will affect the air transportation system are presented, as well as the scenarios to be simulated. The overall architecture of the model is described and a more detailed presentation of the economic component of the model is given. Some preliminary results of this part of the model illustrate its main mechanisms and capabilities