On recognizing inflation

Forecasters experienced considerable difficulty in recognizing rising inflation and predicting its intensity in 1972-82. Possible explanations discussed are: 1) unpredictable supply shocks, 2) excessive attention to nonmonetary developments, and 3) actual money growth overshooting its targeted growth rate.Inflation (Finance) ; Forecasting

Forecasts 1976 : recovery but no bicentennial boom

An abstract for this article is not available.Forecasting ; Economic indicators

The case of the reluctant recovery

Anecdotal evidence has it that the 1990-91 downturn was a predominantly white-collar, or middle management, recession. The data, however, show that the recession affected virtually all occupational groups. Moreover, by standards of past recessions, the 1990-91 downturn was relatively mild. It is the failure of employment to recover that is unusual. Evidence presented here indicates that the economy’s behavior results from a blend of cyclical and structural factors, with the structural factors delaying the recovery.Recessions

The U.S. productivity slowdown: what the experts say

Measured U.S. productivity growth has slowed significantly since 1973; moreover, measured U.S. productivity continues to grow at a slower rate than that of our major trading partners. A number of potential explanations of the slowdown are currently being debated in the economics literature. These explanations are discussed in the article.Productivity

On labor market indicators

An abstract for this article is not available.Labor market

Equalizing regional differences in wages : a study of wages and migration in the South and other regions

Is the South rebelling again—this time against one of the tenets of economic theory? Neoclassical economic theory predicts that wage differentials between regions will disappear with time as workers move from low-wage areas to high-wage areas. However, in the seventies people tended to migrate southward, even though the South is usually thought to be a low-wage region. In his essay. “Equalizing Regional Differences in Wages: A Study of Wages and Migration in the South and Other Regions,” William E. Cullison offers a simple resolution to this paradox. By adjusting for the cost of living and by comparing similar workers in similar jobs, Cullison demonstrates that real wages are actually higher in the South than in most regions. This result may be a surprise to those who had attributed population inflows to a superior “quality of life” in the South.Employment (Economic theory) ; Wages

Equalizing regional differences in wages : a study of wages and migration in the South and other regions

Is the South rebelling again—this time against one of the tenets of economic theory? Neoclassical economic theory predicts that wage differentials between regions will disappear with time as workers move from low-wage areas to high-wage areas. However, in the seventies people tended to migrate southward, even though the South is usually thought to be a low-wage region. In his essay. “Equalizing Regional Differences in Wages: A Study of Wages and Migration in the South and Other Regions,” William E. Cullison offers a simple resolution to this paradox. By adjusting for the cost of living and by comparing similar workers in similar jobs, Cullison demonstrates that real wages are actually higher in the South than in most regions. This result may be a surprise to those who had attributed population inflows to a superior “quality of life” in the South.Employment (Economic theory) ; Wages

Is saving too low in the United States?

Many observers contend that the U.S. savings rate has declined in recent years and that it lags behind the savings rates of our trading partners. This article surveys different methods of measuring savings (and problems with these methods) and finds that U.S. saving may not be as low as is popularly believed.Saving and investment ; Consumer behavior

Forecasts 1980 : a consensus for a recession

An abstract for this article is not availableForecasting ; Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond