The performance of stochastic designs in wellbore drilling operations

© 2018, The Author(s). Wellbore drilling operations frequently entail the combination of a wide range of variables. This is underpinned by the numerous factors that must be considered in order to ensure safety and productivity. The heterogeneity and sometimes unpredictable behaviour of underground systems increases the sensitivity of drilling activities. Quite often the operating parameters are set to certify effective and efficient working processes. However, failings in the management of drilling and operating conditions sometimes result in catastrophes such as well collapse or fluid loss. This study investigates the hypothesis that optimising drilling parameters, for instance mud pressure, is crucial if the margin of safe operating conditions is to be properly defined. This was conducted via two main stages: first a deterministic analysis—where the operating conditions are predicted by conventional modelling procedures—and then a probabilistic analysis via stochastic simulations—where a window of optimised operation conditions can be obtained. The outcome of additional stochastic analyses can be used to improve results derived from deterministic models. The incorporation of stochastic techniques in the evaluation of wellbore instability indicates that margins of the safe mud weight window are adjustable and can be extended considerably beyond the limits of deterministic predictions. The safe mud window is influenced and hence can also be amended based on the degree of uncertainty and the permissible level of confidence. The refinement of results from deterministic analyses by additional stochastic simulations is vital if a more accurate and reliable representation of safe in situ and operating conditions is to be obtained during wellbore operations.Published versio

Contribution of citizen science to improve knowledge on marine biodiversity in the Gulf Region

Monitoring marine biodiversity is costly and practical solutions have to be implemented to identify species and their preferred habitats, particularly in this era of rapid global change. Citizen science has proven to be effective and with high potential for monitoring efforts, and has been extensively applied to biodiversity. We have used the citizen science approach to engage the general public and stakeholders to contribute improving the current knowledge of sea snake biodiversity in Qatar and the Gulf Region. Logistic regression analysis using demographic data from interview surveys conducted in Qatar has indicated that the people having seen more sea snakes are older than 30 years and are Qatari citizens and/or fishermen from India. Of the ten species of sea snakes listed in the literature to be present in the Gulf Region, most of them have been reported for Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. However, the number of species present is often assumed based on their occurrence within the Arabian Gulf rather than on actual captures and appropriate identification. The creation of marine reference biological scientific collections to properly identify the species and make accurate biodiversity inventories is an urgent priority for the countries in the Gulf region. To this end, contributions by stakeholders and the general public for this study have proven to be very useful. However a larger networking with local and international scientists and stakeholders is still needed to adequately survey the country''s current biodiversity, identify research priorities and eventually provide the scientific input needed to assist biodiversity management related to renewable resource management and marine conservation in the Arabian Gulf Region

Numerical Model‐Software for Predicting Rock Formation Failure‐Time Using Fracture Mechanics

Real‐time integrated drilling is an important practice for the upstream petroleum industry. Traditional pre‐drill models, tend to offset the data gathered from the field since information obtained prior to spudding and drilling of new wells often become obsolete due to the changes in geology and geomechanics of reservoir‐rocks or formations. Estimating the complicated non‐linear failure‐time of a rock formation is a difficult but important task that helps to mitigate the effects of rock failure when drilling and producing wells from the subsurface. In this study, parameters that have the strongest impact on rock failure were used to develop a numerical and computational model for evaluating wellbore instability in terms of collapse, fracture, rock strength and failure‐time. This approach presents drilling and well engineers with a better understanding of the fracture mechanics and rock strength failureprediction procedure required to reduce stability problems by forecasting the rock/formation failuretime. The computational technique built into the software, uses the stress distribution around a rock formation as well as the rock’s responses to induced stress as a means of analyzing the failure time of the rock. The results from simulation show that the applied stress has the most significant influence on the failure‐time of the rock. The software also shows that the failure‐time varied over several orders of magnitude for varying stress‐loads. Thus, this will help drilling engineers avoid wellbore failure by adjusting the stress concentration properly through altering the mud pressure and well orientation with respect to in‐situ stresses. As observed from the simulation results for the failure time analysis, the trend shows that the time dependent strength failure is not just a function of the applied stress. Because, at applied stress of 6000–6050 psi there was time dependent failure whereas, at higher applied stress of 6350–6400 psi there was no time dependent strength failure

A modified empirical criterion for strength of transversely anisotropic rocks with metamorphic origin

A modified empirical criterion is proposed to determine the strength of transversely anisotropic rocks. In this regard, mechanical properties of intact anisotropic slate obtained from three different districts of Iran were taken into consideration. Afterward, triaxial rock strength criterion introduced by Rafiai was modified for transversely anisotropic rocks. The criterion was modified by adding a new parameter α for taking the influence of strength anisotropy into consideration. The results obtained have shown that the parameter α can be considered as the strength reduction parameter due to rock anisotropy. The modified criterion was compared to the modified Hoek–Brown (Saroglou and Tsiambaos) and Ramamurthy criteria for different anisotropic rocks. It was concluded that the criterion proposed in this paper is a more accurate and precise criterion in predicting the strength of anisotropic rocks

Can gold be used as a hedge against the risks of Sharia-compliant securities? Application for Islamic portfolio management

In this paper, we investigate whether gold hedges Sharia-compliant stocks and Sukuk during the period from September 2005 to October 2017. The inference is taken by using both the DCC-GARCH model and the wavelet coherence analysis. On the whole, our finding suggests that gold is not effective in hedging the fluctuations of Sharia-compliant securities. However, we find that combining gold with stocks (and Sukuk) is useful in diversification and portfolio optimization. These results imply that, while gold is an excellent hedge for plain vanilla securities, it is not for Islamic exposures. This is important in light of the increasing amount of assets that are managed according to Islamic screening

Biallelic mutations in SORD cause a common and potentially treatable hereditary neuropathy with implications for diabetes

Here we report biallelic mutations in the sorbitol dehydrogenase gene (SORD) as the most frequent recessive form of hereditary neuropathy. We identified 45 individuals from 38 families across multiple ancestries carrying the nonsense c.757delG (p.Ala253GlnfsTer27) variant in SORD, in either a homozygous or compound heterozygous state. SORD is an enzyme that converts sorbitol into fructose in the two-step polyol pathway previously implicated in diabetic neuropathy. In patient-derived fibroblasts, we found a complete loss of SORD protein and increased intracellular sorbitol. Furthermore, the serum fasting sorbitol levels in patients were dramatically increased. In Drosophila, loss of SORD orthologs caused synaptic degeneration and progressive motor impairment. Reducing the polyol influx by treatment with aldose reductase inhibitors normalized intracellular sorbitol levels in patient-derived fibroblasts and in Drosophila, and also dramatically ameliorated motor and eye phenotypes. Together, these findings establish a novel and potentially treatable cause of neuropathy and may contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes

Inter-seasonal compressed air energy storage using saline aquifers

Meeting inter-seasonal fluctuations in electricity production or demand in a system dominated by renewable energy requires the cheap, reliable and accessible storage of energy on a scale that is currently challenging to achieve. Commercially mature compressed-air energy storage could be applied to porous rocks in sedimentary basins worldwide, where legacy data from hydrocarbon exploration are available, and if geographically close to renewable energy sources. Here we present a modelling approach to predict the potential for compressed-air energy storage in porous rocks. By combining this with an extensive geological database, we provide a regional assessment of this potential for the United Kingdom. We find the potential storage capacity is equivalent to approximately 160% of the United Kingdom’s electricity consumption for January and February 2017 (77–96 TWh), with a roundtrip energy efficiency of 54–59%. This UK storage potential is achievable at costs in the range US$0.42–4.71 kWh−1

Artificial Intelligence-based methods in head and neck cancer diagnosis : an overview

Background This paper reviews recent literature employing Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) methods for diagnostic evaluation of head and neck cancers (HNC) using automated image analysis. Methods Electronic database searches using MEDLINE via OVID, EMBASE and Google Scholar were conducted to retrieve articles using AI/ML for diagnostic evaluation of HNC (2009–2020). No restrictions were placed on the AI/ML method or imaging modality used. Results In total, 32 articles were identified. HNC sites included oral cavity (n = 16), nasopharynx (n = 3), oropharynx (n = 3), larynx (n = 2), salivary glands (n = 2), sinonasal (n = 1) and in five studies multiple sites were studied. Imaging modalities included histological (n = 9), radiological (n = 8), hyperspectral (n = 6), endoscopic/clinical (n = 5), infrared thermal (n = 1) and optical (n = 1). Clinicopathologic/genomic data were used in two studies. Traditional ML methods were employed in 22 studies (69%), deep learning (DL) in eight studies (25%) and a combination of these methods in two studies (6%). Conclusions There is an increasing volume of studies exploring the role of AI/ML to aid HNC detection using a range of imaging modalities. These methods can achieve high degrees of accuracy that can exceed the abilities of human judgement in making data predictions. Large-scale multi-centric prospective studies are required to aid deployment into clinical practice

Sotrovimab versus usual care in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Sotrovimab is a neutralising monoclonal antibody targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of sotrovimab in the RECOVERY trial, an investigator-initiated, individually randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial testing treatments for patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: Patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia to 107 UK hospitals were randomly assigned (1:1) to either usual care alone or usual care plus a single 1 g infusion of sotrovimab, using web-based unstratified randomisation. Participants were eligible if they were aged at least 18 years, or aged 12–17 years if weighing at least 40kg, and had confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia with no medical history that would put them at significant risk if they participated in the trial. Participants were retrospectively categorised as having a high antigen level if baseline serum SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen was above the median concentration (the prespecified primary efficacy population), otherwise they were categorised as having a low antigen level. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality assessed by intention to treat. Safety outcomes were assessed among all participants, regardless of antigen level. Recruitment closed on March 31, 2024, when funding ended. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: From Jan 4, 2022, to March 19, 2024, 1723 patients were enrolled in the RECOVERY sotrovimab comparison. Of these, 828 (48%) were assigned to usual care plus sotrovimab and 895 (52%) were assigned to usual care only. Mean patient age was 70·7 years (SD 14·8) and 1033 (60%) were male. 720 (42%) patients were classified as having a high antigen level, 717 (42%) as having a low antigen level, and 286 (17%) had unknown antigen status. 1389 (81%) patients were vaccinated, 1179 (82%) of 1438 patients with known serostatus had anti-spike antibodies at randomisation, and 1021 (>99%) of 1026 patients with sequenced samples were infected with omicron variants. Among patients with a high antigen level, 82 (23%) of 355 assigned to sotrovimab versus 106 (29%) of 365 assigned usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·75, 95% CI 0·56–0·99; p=0·046). In an analysis of all randomly assigned patients (regardless of antigen status), 177 (21%) of 828 patients assigned to sotrovimab versus 201 (22%) of 895 assigned to usual care died within 28 days (0·95, 0·77–1·16; p=0·60). Infusion reactions were recorded in 12 (2%) of 781 patients receiving sotrovimab. We found no difference between groups in any other safety outcome. Interpretation: In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia, sotrovimab was associated with reduced mortality in the primary analysis population who had a high serum SARS-CoV-2 antigen concentration at baseline, but not in the overall population. Treatment options for patients admitted to hospital are limited, and mortality in those receiving current standard of care was high. The emergence of high-level resistance to sotrovimab among subsequent SARS-CoV-2 variants restricts its current usefulness, but these results indicate that targeted neutralising antibody therapy could potentially still benefit some patients admitted to hospital who are at high risk of death in an era of widespread vaccination and omicron infection. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute for Health and Care Research