The ‘Lost’ Church of Bix Gibwyn: The Human Bone

Recent research for the Victoria County History (VCH) highlighted the presence of a ‘lost’ medieval church in Bix, a Chilterns parish north-west of Henley-on-Thames. The building, formerly the parish church of Bix Gibwyn, was abandoned in the late sixteenth or seventeenth century and has left no standing remains. Archaeological investigation by the South Oxfordshire Archaeological Group (SOAG) and Reading University has confirmed its location in a close called ‘Old Chapel’ in Bix Bottom, in the north of the parish. The rediscovery of the site – which contains the foundations of a hitherto unknown Romano-British stone building – sheds new light on long-term changes in local communications, settlement, and economic conditions. In the Middle Ages Bix Gibwyn church was a focus of religious and social life for a small rural community in the south Oxfordshire Chilterns. After the Reformation it was neglected, demolished, and finally all but forgotten. Its location has been a matter of speculation for over a hundred years,1 but in 2007–10 its churchyard was identified through a combination of historical research and archaeological fieldwork. Confirmation of the church’s location in the remote Bix Bottom valley provides important evidence about the medieval settlement pattern in Bix, which was very different from the modern one, and offers an opportunity to reassess the development of settlement in the southern Chilterns more generally. The archaeological findings also supply new evidence about Roman activity in the area

A typology of marine and estuarine hazards and risks as vectors of change : a review for vulnerable coasts and their management

This paper illustrates a typology of 14 natural and anthropogenic hazards, the evidence for their causes and consequences for society and their role as vectors of change in estuaries, vulnerable coasts and marine areas. It uses hazard as the potential that there will be damage to the natural or human system and so is the product of an event which could occur and the probability of it occurring whereas the degree of risk then relates to the amount of assets, natural or societal, which may be affected. We give long- and short-term and large- and small-scale perspectives showing that the hazards leading to disasters for society will include flooding, erosion and tsunamis. Global examples include the effects of wetland loss and the exacerbation of problems by building on vulnerable coasts. Hence we emphasise the importance of considering hazard and risk on such coasts and consider the tools for assessing and managing the impacts of risk and hazard. These allow policy-makers to determine the consequences for natural and human systems. We separate locally-derived problems from large-scale effects (e.g. climate change, sea-level rise and isostatic rebound); we emphasise that the latter unmanaged exogenic pressures require a response to the consequences rather than the causes whereas within a management area there are endogenic managed pressures in which we address both to causes and consequences. The problems are put into context by assessing hazards and the conflicts between different uses and users and hence the management responses needed. We emphasise that integrated and sustainable management of the hazards and risk requires 10-tenets to be fulfilled

Assessing Multiple Prior Models of Behaviour under Ambiguity

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors (in which the probabilities of the various events are not known but probabilities can be attached to the various possible values for the probabilities) and those not involving multiple priors. This paper concentrates on the first set and provides an experimental investigation into recently proposed theories. Using an appropriate experimental interface, in which the probabilities on the various possibilities are explicitly stated, we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then we estimateand predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 25% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 54% with the Smooth Model (of Klibanoff et al, 2005), 12% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model (of Ghirardato et al 2004); these figures are very close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates. However, if we classify our subjects through the posterior probabilities (given all the evidence) of each of them being of the various types: using the estimates we get 38%, 19%, 28% and 16% (for EU, Smooth, Rank Dependent and Alpha); while using the predictions 36%, 19%, 33% and 11%. Interestingly the older models (EU and RD) seem to fare relatively better, suggesting that representing ambiguity through multiple priors is perceived by subjects as risk, rather than ambiguityAlpha Model, Ambiguity, Expected Utility, Mixture Models, Rank Dependent Expected Utility, Smooth Model.

Monetary economic research at the St. Louis Fed during Ted Balbach's tenure as research director

Ted Balbach served as research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1975 to 1992. This paper lauds his contributions during that time, including the expanded influence of the Review, enhanced databases and data publications, and a visiting scholar program that attracted leading economists from around the world. Balbach is remembered fondly as a visionary leader and gracious mentor.Balbach, Anatol ; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ; Research