Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Integrated washland management for flood defence and biodiversity

A combination of reform of agricultural policy, changing priorities in the countryside, growing commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity, and concerns about increased flood risk in lowlands have drawn attention to the potential contribution that managed washlands can make to deliver benefits to biodiversity and flood management. In this context, and with funding from Defra and English Nature, the study reported here1 set out to determine the scope for simultaneously achieving flood management and biodiversity objectives, and how this might be achieved in practice. The broad purpose is to inform policy on washland creation and management, including mechanisms for implementation if deemed appropriate

High-resolution extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy of G191-B2B: structure of the stellar photosphere and the surrounding interstellar medium

We have continued our detailed analysis of the high-resolution (R= 4000) spectroscopic observation of the DA white dwarf G191-B2B, obtained by the Joint Astrophysical Plasmadynamic Experiment (J-PEX) normal incidence sounding rocket-borne telescope, comparing the observed data with theoretical predictions for both homogeneous and stratified atmosphere structures. We find that the former models give the best agreement over the narrow waveband covered by J-PEX, in conflict with what is expected from previous studies of the lower resolution but broader wavelength coverage Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer spectra. We discuss the possible limitations of the atomic data and our understanding of the stellar atmospheres that might give rise to this inconsistency. In our earlier study, we obtained an unusually high ionization fraction for the ionized He ii present along the line of sight to the star. In the present paper, we obtain a better fit when we assume, as suggested by Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph results, that this He ii resides in two separate components. When one of these is assigned to the local interstellar cloud, the implied He ionization fraction is consistent with measurements along other lines of sight. However, the resolving power and signal-to-noise available from the instrument configuration used in this first successful J-PEX flight are not sufficient to clearly identify and prove the existence of the two components

Drawing Arrangement Graphs In Small Grids, Or How To Play Planarity

We describe a linear-time algorithm that finds a planar drawing of every graph of a simple line or pseudoline arrangement within a grid of area O(n^{7/6}). No known input causes our algorithm to use area \Omega(n^{1+\epsilon}) for any \epsilon>0; finding such an input would represent significant progress on the famous k-set problem from discrete geometry. Drawing line arrangement graphs is the main task in the Planarity puzzle.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures. To appear at 21st Int. Symp. Graph Drawing, Bordeaux, 201