Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses

Unequal Climate Impacts on Global Values of Natural Capital

Code and Data for the project "Unequal Climate Impacts on Global Values of Natural Capital

Evaluating trade-offs of a large, infrequent sediment diversion for restoration of a forested wetland in the Mississippi delta

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Flood control levees cut off the supply of sediment to Mississippi delta coastal wetlands, and contribute to putting much of the delta on a trajectory for continued submergence in the 21st century. River sediment diversions have been proposed as a method to provide a sustainable supply of sediment to the delta, but the frequency and magnitude of these diversions needs further assessment. Previous studies suggested operating river sediment diversions based on the size and frequency of natural crevasse events, which were large (\u3e5000 m3/s) and infrequent (active \u3c once a year) in the last naturally active delta. This study builds on these previous works by quantitatively assessing tradeoffs for a large, infrequent diversion into the forested wetlands of the Maurepas swamp. Land building was estimated for several diversion sizes and years inactive using a delta progradation model. A benefit-cost analysis (BCA) combined model land building results with an ecosystem service valuation and estimated costs. Results demonstrated that land building is proportional to diversion size and inversely proportional to years inactive. Because benefits were assumed to scale linearly with land gain, and costs increase with diversion size, there are disadvantages to operating large diversions less often, compared to smaller diversions more often for the immediate project area. Literature suggests that infrequent operation would provide additional gains (through increased benefits and reduced ecosystem service costs) to the broader Lake Maurepas-Pontchartrain-Borgne ecosystem. Future research should incorporate these additional effects into this type of BCA, to see if this changes the outcome for large, infrequent diversions

A Football Field Lost Every 45 Minutes: Evaluating Local Capacity to Implement Louisiana's Coastal Master Plan

As Louisiana continues to experience substantial coastal wetland loss—at the rate of a football field every 45 min—and multiple disasters, state and federal officials struggle with implementing restoration plans in this highly productive ecosystem. The 2007 Louisiana Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast is the first large-scale restoration plan in the United States to incorporate hazard mitigation. However, there is no mandate for local governments to adhere to this plan. Building upon the planning quality and evaluation literature, this study analyzes comprehensive land use plans in Louisiana\u27s coastal zone to systematically assess the quality of the plans within the context of a non-mandated, $50 billion large-scale state restoration plan. Results indicate a great disparity in plan quality; a majority of the local governments lack the capacity to implement the nonstructural programmatic elements of the state\u27s plan. The study concludes with a discussion and recommendations for practice and future research