THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANAGING RISK

Risk and Uncertainty,

An empirical study of the impacts of redevelopment project on property prices of residential buildings in Hong Kong

Thesis (B.Sc)--University of Hong Kong, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-102).published_or_final_versio

Refinement Type Inference via Horn Constraint Optimization

We propose a novel method for inferring refinement types of higher-order functional programs. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it can infer maximally preferred (i.e., Pareto optimal) refinement types with respect to a user-specified preference order. The flexible optimization of refinement types enabled by the proposed method paves the way for interesting applications, such as inferring most-general characterization of inputs for which a given program satisfies (or violates) a given safety (or termination) property. Our method reduces such a type optimization problem to a Horn constraint optimization problem by using a new refinement type system that can flexibly reason about non-determinism in programs. Our method then solves the constraint optimization problem by repeatedly improving a current solution until convergence via template-based invariant generation. We have implemented a prototype inference system based on our method, and obtained promising results in preliminary experiments.Comment: 19 page

Conservation and “land grabbing” in rangelands: Part of the problem or part of the solution?

Large-scale land acquisitions have increased in scale and pace due to changes in commodity markets, agricultural investment strategies, land prices, and a range of other policy and market forces. The areas most affected are the global “commons” – lands that local people traditionally use collectively — including much of the world’s forests, wetlands, and rangelands. In some cases land acquisition occurs with environmental objectives in sight – including the setting aside of land as protected areas for biodiversity conservation. On the other hand, current trends and patterns of commercial land acquisition present a major and growing threat not just to local livelihoods and human rights, but also to conservation objectives. There is a potential opportunity here for greater collaboration between conservation interests, and local communities’ land rights interests with their supporters amongst human rights and social justice movements. This Issue Paper documents experiences from the rangelands of Mongolia, Kenya, India, Ethiopia, and other countries, which were presented at a Conference on Conservation and Land Grabbing held in London in 2013

Determinants of health seeking behaviour following rabies exposure in Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to identify factors that determine medical treatment seeking behaviour following potential rabies exposure after being bitten by a suspected dog and the likelihood of compliance to receive sufficient doses of post-exposure prophylaxis after the visit to a health centre visit. A detailed survey based on case investigation was conducted on suspected rabid dog bite cases in three areas of Ethiopia. Two multivariable logistic regression models were created with a set of putative variables to explain treatment seeking and compliance outcomes. Based on the registered bite cases at each health centre and the set of unregistered bite cases derived by contact tracing, 655 bite victim cases were identified to have occurred between September 2013 and August 2014. Of these evaluated bite incidences, 465 cases were considered to have been caused by a potentially rabid dog. About 77% of these suspected rabid dog bite victims visited a health centre, while 57% received sufficient doses of PEP. The overall likelihood of seeking medical services following rabies exposure was higher for people bitten by dogs of unknown ownership, where the bite was severe, being bitten on the leg, spend of more than 100 USD per month and where the victim lived close to the nearest health centre, while the likelihood of receiving sufficient doses of PEP was sensitive to monthly spending and distance to health centre. However, the evaluated factors did only explain a part of the variation among the three districts. The district in which victims lived appeared to have a relevant influence on the likelihood of seeking medical treatment but did not improve the prediction on the likelihood of treatment compliance. Given the insights obtained from this study, improvements in the rural districts with regard to accessibility of post-exposure prophylaxis delivering health centres in shorter distance could improve health seeking behaviour. In addition, in rural districts, majority of exposed persons who seek medical treatment tend to comply with treatment regimen, indicating that the promotion of medical treatment through awareness creation campaigns could be beneficial

Podoconiosis and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs): double burden of neglected tropical diseases in Wolaita zone, rural southern Ethiopia

Background Both podoconiosis and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections occur among barefoot people in areas of extreme poverty; however, their co-morbidity has not previously been investigated. We explored the overlap of STH infection and podoconiosis in Southern Ethiopia and quantified their separate and combined effects on prevalent anemia and hemoglobin levels in podoconiosis patients and health controls from the same area. Methods and Principal Findings A two-part comparative cross-sectional study was conducted in Wolaita zone, southern Ethiopia. Data were collected from adult patients presenting with clinically confirmed podoconiosis, and unmatched adult neighborhood controls living in the same administrative area. Information on demographic and selected lifestyle factors was collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Stool samples were collected and examined qualitatively using the modified formalin-ether sedimentation method. Hemoglobin level was determined using two different methods: hemoglobinometer and automated hematology analyzer. A total of 913 study subjects (677 podoconiosis patients and 236 controls) participated. The prevalence of any STH infection was 47.6% among patients and 33.1% among controls (p<0.001). The prevalence of both hookworm and Trichuris trichiura infections was significantly higher in podoconiosis patients than in controls (AOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.25 to2.42, AOR 6.53, 95% CI 2.34 to 18.22, respectively). Not wearing shoes and being a farmer remained significant independent predictors of infection with any STH. There was a significant interaction between STH infection and podoconiosis on reduction of hemoglobin level (interaction p value = 0.002). Conclusions Prevalence of any STH and hookworm infection was higher among podoconiosis patients than among controls. A significant reduction in hemoglobin level was observed among podoconiosis patients co-infected with hookworm and ‘non-hookworm STH’. Promotion of consistent shoe-wearing practices may have double advantages in controlling both podoconiosis and hookworm infection in the study area

A randomized controlled trial of the effects of a prudent diet on cardiovascular risk factors, gene expression, and DNA methylation - the Diet and Genetic Intervention (DIGEST) Pilot study

Background Risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be increased by single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the 9p21 region of the genome. However, observational studies have shown that the deleterious effect of 9p21 SNPs on CVD might be offset by consuming a diet rich in fresh fruits and vegetables. This association may be driven by diet-influenced modifications in epigenetic and gene expression profiles. In this pilot study, we aimed to: i. test the feasibility of provision of a ‘Prudent’ and ‘Western’ diet outside of a specialized clinic, ii. assess the impact of each diet on cardiovascular risk factors. Methods A single centre, parallel two-arm, pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) with food provision was conducted in a university teaching hospital outpatient clinic (McMaster university, Hamilton, ON, Canada). The aim was to recruit 80 participants, which allowed for a 10 % dropout. The actual study consisted of 84 apparently healthy participants (69 % women, 18 to 77 years) at low cardiovascular risk. Participants were randomly assigned to follow one of two weight-maintaining diets: ‘Prudent’ or ‘Western’ for 2-weeks. The Prudent diet provided 92 % of provided food consumed). The Prudent diet was 48 % more palatable than the Western diet (P < 0.05). Participants receiving the Prudent diet showed a trend toward reduced systolic (-4 mmHg; P = 0.10) and diastolic (-3 mmHg; P = 0.07) blood pressure, and total cholesterol (-0.24 mmol/L; P = 0.08), compared to individuals receiving the Western diet. Data collection from all randomized participants was completed within 18 months. Conclusions Recruitment, and retention of apparently healthy, normotensive adults into a feeding study for a 2-week duration is feasible outside of specialized dietary clinic, and modest diet-related changes in biomarkers begin to appear after two weeks

Early Growth and Reproductive Performances of Horro Cattle and thier F1 Jersey Crosses in and around Horro-Guduru Livestock Production and Research Center, Ethiopia

A cross-sectional survey, an assessment of recorded data and  measurements of different traits were conducted to determine the reproductive and early growth performances of Horro cattle and their F1 Jersey crosses of the study area. The mean(SD) total farmland, cropland and grazing land holdings of individual smallholder householders were 3.6±3.16, 2.86±2.51 and 0.81±0.89 respectively, while the mean(SD) livestock species holding were 17±11.66, 2.9±3.98,2.9 ±4.83, 1.8±1.66 and 9.3±8.97 for cattle, sheep, goats, equine and poultry respectively. Anestrous, repeat breeder, endo-metritis and dystocia were the main reproductive health problems which were found to occurs with the  proportion of 21.1%, 19.7%, 5.6% and 1.4%, while the remaining 52% attribute to non pregnancy in cows due to voluntary waiting period, postpartum period and lack of AI service. The overall mean age at first service across both production sites(on station and on farm) was 48.85 months for local Horro and 33.25 months for Horro-Jersey F1 Crosses, where as the mean (SD) NSPC for Horro and Horro-Jersey crossbred heifers was found 2.1±1.09 and 1.7±0.94 respectively. Breed of animals had high  significance effect at (P &lt; 0.001) on AFS and AFC. The mean birth weight of Horro and Horro-Jersey crossbred calves was 17.5±2.25 and 18.2±2.03 kg respectively. Calf birth weight was significantly (P&lt;0.001) influenced by breed and sex, season and year of birth of a calf. The mean (SD) body weight measure of Horro calves at six, twelve, eighteen and twenty four months age is found to be 69.8±31.19, 117.7±22.65, 129.4±24.82 and 150±23.56 Kg respectively. While, their respective counterpart Horro-Jersey F1 crossbred calves were found to weigh 64.42±10.18, 136.6±27.97 and 145.1±22.27 kg mean(SD) body weight at six, twelve and eighteen  months of ages respectively

Dairy Productive Potential, Challenges and Production opportunities of Horro and their F1 Jersey Crossbred Cows: A Case of Guduru Livestock Production and Research Center and Its Surroundings, West Oromia, Ethiopia

A survey was conducted on 75 smallholder householders and 205 sample cows selected by random and purposive sampling with the objectives of investigating the challenges, potential and opportunities of production of indigenous Horro and their F1 Jersey cross heifers and cows. The means ± SDs of total farmland, cropland and grazing land holding of individual smallholder householders of the study area was 3.6±3.16, 2.86±2.51 and 0.81±0.89 respectively. The means and SDs of livestock species holdings were 17±11.66, 2.9±3.98, 2.9±4.83, 1.8 ±1.66 and 9.3±8.97 for cattle, sheep, goats, equine and poultry respectively. Breeding method of cattle used was within the proportion of 63.8% and 36.2% for natural mating, and for bull and AI services respectively for on-farm production, while both AI and controlled natural mating were used in the Research Center. The means±SD of NSPC for Horro and their Jersey crossbred heifers was 2.1±1.09 and 1.7±0.94 respectively, where NSPC was significantly influenced by breed of cattle at P&lt;0.05. The overall mean ± SE milk off-take per cow per day for local and crossbred cows were 1.5±0.01 and 5.02±0.12 litres, respectively. Feeding management, breed of animal and site of production significantly influenced milk productivity at P&lt;0.001 both in wet and dry seasons of the year

Towards elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: performance of different models of care for initiating lifelong antiretroviral therapy for pregnant women in Malawi (Option B+).

INTRODUCTION: Malawi introduced a new strategy to improve the effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT), the Option B+ strategy. We aimed to (i) describe how Option B+ is provided in health facilities in the South East Zone in Malawi, identifying the diverse approaches to service organization (the "model of care") and (ii) explore associations between the "model of care" and health facility-level uptake and retention rates for pregnant women identified as HIV-positive at antenatal (ANC) clinics. METHODS: A health facility survey was conducted in all facilities providing PMTCT/antiretroviral therapy (ART) services in six of Malawi's 28 districts to describe and compare Option B+ service delivery models. Associations of identified models with program performance were explored using facility cohort reports. RESULTS: Among 141 health facilities, four "models of care" were identified: A) facilities where newly identified HIV-positive women are initiated and followed on ART at the ANC clinic until delivery; B) facilities where newly identified HIV-positive women receive only the first dose of ART at the ANC clinic, and are referred to the ART clinic for follow-up; C) facilities where newly identified HIV-positive women are referred from ANC to the ART clinic for initiation and follow-up of ART; and D) facilities serving as ART referral sites (not providing ANC). The proportion of women tested for HIV during ANC was highest in facilities applying Model A and lowest in facilities applying Model B. The highest retention rates were reported in Model C and D facilities and lowest in Model B facilities. In multivariable analyses, health facility factors independently associated with uptake of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) in ANC were number of women per HTC counsellor, HIV test kit availability, and the "model of care" applied; factors independently associated with ART retention were district location, patient volume and the "model of care" applied. CONCLUSIONS: A large variety exists in the way health facilities have integrated PMTCT Option B+ care into routine service delivery. This study showed that the "model of care" chosen is associated with uptake of HIV testing in ANC and retention in care on ART. Further patient-level research is needed to guide policy recommendations