A Test of Highly Optimized Tolerance Reveals Fragile Cell-Cycle Mechanisms Are Molecular Targets in Clinical Cancer Trials

Robustness, a long-recognized property of living systems, allows function in the face of uncertainty while fragility, i.e., extreme sensitivity, can potentially lead to catastrophic failure following seemingly innocuous perturbations. Carlson and Doyle hypothesized that highly-evolved networks, e.g., those involved in cell-cycle regulation, can be resistant to some perturbations while highly sensitive to others. The “robust yet fragile” duality of networks has been termed Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT) and has been the basis of new lines of inquiry in computational and experimental biology. In this study, we tested the working hypothesis that cell-cycle control architectures obey the HOT paradigm. Three cell-cycle models were analyzed using monte-carlo sensitivity analysis. Overall state sensitivity coefficients, which quantify the robustness or fragility of a given mechanism, were calculated using a monte-carlo strategy with three different numerical techniques along with multiple parameter perturbation strategies to control for possible numerical and sampling artifacts. Approximately 65% of the mechanisms in the G1/S restriction point were responsible for 95% of the sensitivity, conversely, the G2-DNA damage checkpoint showed a much stronger dependence on a few mechanisms; ∼32% or 13 of 40 mechanisms accounted for 95% of the sensitivity. Our analysis predicted that CDC25 and cyclin E mechanisms were strongly implicated in G1/S malfunctions, while fragility in the G2/M checkpoint was predicted to be associated with the regulation of the cyclin B-CDK1 complex. Analysis of a third model containing both G1/S and G2/M checkpoint logic, predicted in addition to mechanisms already mentioned, that translation and programmed proteolysis were also key fragile subsystems. Comparison of the predicted fragile mechanisms with literature and current preclinical and clinical trials suggested a strong correlation between efficacy and fragility. Thus, when taken together, these results support the working hypothesis that cell-cycle control architectures are HOT networks and establish the mathematical estimation and subsequent therapeutic exploitation of fragile mechanisms as a novel strategy for anti-cancer lead generation

Oral abstracts of the 21st International AIDS Conference 18-22 July 2016, Durban, South Africa

The rate at which HIV-1 infected individuals progress to AIDS is highly variable and impacted by T cell immunity. CD8 T cell inhibitory molecules are up-regulated in HIV-1 infection and associate with immune dysfunction. We evaluated participants (n=122) recruited to the SPARTAC randomised clinical trial to determine whether CD8 T cell exhaustion markers PD-1, Lag-3 and Tim-3 were associated with immune activation and disease progression.Expression of PD-1, Tim-3, Lag-3 and CD38 on CD8 T cells from the closest pre-therapy time-point to seroconversion was measured by flow cytometry, and correlated with surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease (HIV-1 plasma viral load (pVL) and CD4 T cell count) and the trial endpoint (time to CD4 count <350 cells/μl or initiation of antiretroviral therapy). To explore the functional significance of these markers, co-expression of Eomes, T-bet and CD39 was assessed.Expression of PD-1 on CD8 and CD38 CD8 T cells correlated with pVL and CD4 count at baseline, and predicted time to the trial endpoint. Lag-3 expression was associated with pVL but not CD4 count. For all exhaustion markers, expression of CD38 on CD8 T cells increased the strength of associations. In Cox models, progression to the trial endpoint was most marked for PD-1/CD38 co-expressing cells, with evidence for a stronger effect within 12 weeks from confirmed diagnosis of PHI. The effect of PD-1 and Lag-3 expression on CD8 T cells retained statistical significance in Cox proportional hazards models including antiretroviral therapy and CD4 count, but not pVL as co-variants.Expression of ‘exhaustion’ or ‘immune checkpoint’ markers in early HIV-1 infection is associated with clinical progression and is impacted by immune activation and the duration of infection. New markers to identify exhausted T cells and novel interventions to reverse exhaustion may inform the development of novel immunotherapeutic approaches