Western Mediterranean precipitation over the last 300 years from instrumental observations

The paper reports the results of the analysis of the 14 longest precipitation instrumental series, covering the last 300 years, that have been recovered in six subareas of the Western Mediterranean basin, i.e., Portugal, Northern and Southern Spain, Southern France, Northern and Southern Italy. This study extends back by one century our knowledge about the instrumental precipitation over theWestern Mediterranean, and by two centuries in some specific subareas. All the time series show repeated swings. No specific trends have been found over the whole period, except in a few cases, but with modest time changes and sometimes having opposite tendency. The same can be said for the most recent decades although with some more marked departures from the average. The correlation between the various Mediterranean subareas is generally not significant, or almost uncorrelated. The Wavelet Spectral Analysis applied to the precipitation identifies only a minor 56-year cycle in autumn, i.e., the same return period that has been found in literature for the Sea Surface Temperature over North Atlantic. A comparison with a gridded dataset reconstruction based on mixed multiproxy and instrumental observations, shows that the grid reconstruction is in good agreement with the observed data for the period after 1900, less for the previous period

Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record is time integrated to stress its comparison with the temperature record. The integrated NAO (INAO) is found to well correlate with the length of the day (since 1650) and the global surface sea temperature record HadSST2 and HadSST3 (since 1850). These findings suggest that INAO can be used as a good proxy for global climate change, and that a 60-year cycle exists in the global climate since at least 1700. Finally, the INAO ~60-year oscillation well correlates with the ~60- year oscillations found in the historical European aurora record since 1700, which suggests that this 60-year dominant climatic cycle has a solar-astronomical origin

Avaliação e perspectivas da abordagem à conservação do patrimônio organístico no Brasil

Órgãos de tubos são construídos no Brasil, ou importados do exterior, desde as primeiras décadas do período colonial. Estes instrumentos, apesar de constituírem um conjunto relativamente exíguo, representam um testemunho histórico e musical de valor inestimável. No entanto, de um modo geral, encontram-se em condições precárias de funcionamento e, em parte, mais ou menos descaracterizados profundamente, quanto à sua estrutura e configuração original, às vezes em estado de abandono e, por incrível que pareça, ainda sujeitos ao risco de intervenções arbitrárias e desprovidas de bases técnicas e de preocupação histórica e musicológica. Neste artigo, busca-se percorrer o caminho que levou à atual situação e discutem-se os princípios e os critérios de processos de recuperação, manutenção e conservação preventiva desse patrimônio, partindo dos pressupostos do respeito à sua originalidade e do direito a restauros segundo os rigorosos cânones já definidos para objetos com plena condição de bem cultural, cujo reconhecimento para os órgãos de qualquer época deve ser urgentemente garantido.Pipe organs have been built in Brazil or imported from elsewhere since the very first decades of the colonial period. Albeit relatively small in number, such instruments have inestimable historical and musical value. Notwithstanding, they are generally in very poor working condition and some have lost much of their original structure and configuration; they are often found in a state of abandonment and, incredible as it may seem, still under the threat of arbitrary interventions performed with no technical expertise or any concern for their historical and musicological significance. This article is an effort to understand how this state of affairs came to be, and discusses principles and criteria for the restoration, maintenance and preventive conservation of this legacy, based on assumptions regarding its original conditions and entitlement to restoration in accordance with the stringent standards already set for artifacts that enjoy the full status of cultural assets, which should also be urgently granted to pipe organs of any time and age

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms

Extreme events in Italy from documentary sources: Venice as a case study

Venice risks to be submerged as a consequence of two problems: local land subsidence and sea level rise due to global warming. They both contribute to what is referred as Apparent Sea Level Rise (ASLR). Flooding Tides (locally: Acqua Alta) submerge Venice with an exponentially increasing frequency. The Acqua Alta is generated by a number of factors, the main of them being the Sirocco wind blowing over the Adriatic Sea, that ultimately displaces waters towards Venice. These extreme events have been investigated by using the documentary description of past floods, accurately reported over the last millennium, and tide gauge records for the recent period. A fundamental problem is to know the trend of the ASLR, possibly distinguishing between land subsidence and sea level components. Instrumental data go back to 1872 and a key point is to extend ourkno wledge back in time. Long-term ASLR has been investigated with the help of a biological indicator, i.e. the height of the green belt of the algae that live in the tidal range and whose upper front shows the average high tide level. Fortunately, in the first half of the 18th century, this indicator was accurately drawn by the famous painter Antonio Canaletto (1697-1768) and his pupils, mainly Bernardo Bellotto (1722-1780), in their photographic paintings made with an optical camera obscura. It has been possible to compare the tidal level, as it was in the 1700s and today. After careful spot investigation and minor corrections for some changes to the hydrological system occurred in the meantime, the bulk submersion of Venice estimated from the paintings is 61 ± 11 cm with average yearly trend 1.9 mm y−1

Modelling climate and societal resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the last Millennium

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion(1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies.We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history

The influence of mass tourism and hygroscopic inertia in relative humidity fluctuations of museums located in historical buildings

The preservation of artefacts in museum collections is profoundly affected by fluctuations in temperature and relative humidity. This work presents the results of an experimental laboratorial study, conducted in a flow chamber to demonstrate the enormous potential of hygroscopic materials in stabilizing interior relative humidity. In order to assess the risk of mass tourism and hygroscopic inertia of finishing materials, associated with the hygrothermal behavior of museums, an analysis of several numerical scenarios, with a different number of visitors per hour, and finishing materials, in order to quantify the risks associated with the fluctuations of relative humidity. The results of sensitivity studies performed are presented for the case of a museum in Porto

Climate Risk and Conservation Challenges at Palermo’s Specola Museum

The Specola Museum is housed on the premises of the old Palermo Observatory, founded in 1790, and preserves most of the observatory's cultural heritage. Environmental monitoring following the activation of air conditioning systems in 2018 revealed significant deviations from the historic thermo-hygrometric trends, with particularly dangerous fluctuations in relative humidity. A notable example of the impact of these changes is a 19th-century painted wooden Model of Mars, displayed in the Merz Hall since 2021. In less than two years, the Model has shown progressive damage to its paint layers. Conservation actions have been adopted to stop the deterioration process, but the risk of further deterioration phenomena involving other objects is expected to increase substantially in the absence of intervention. This paper presents the outcomes of a preliminary study on the thermo-hygrometric conditions in the Merz Hall. Based on the European Standard EN 15757: 2010 and the Italian Legislative decree of 10 May 2001, safe ranges for temperature and relative humidity have been identified for the long-term preservation of the collection. These findings will inform future climate management strategies in the museum

The interpretations and uses of fitness landscapes in the social sciences

__Abstract__ This working paper precedes our full article entitled “The evolution of Wright’s (1932) adaptive field to contemporary interpretations and uses of fitness landscapes in the social sciences” as published in the journal Biology & Philosophy (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10539-014-9450-2). The working paper features an extended literature overview of the ways in which fitness landscapes have been interpreted and used in the social sciences, for which there was not enough space in the full article. The article features an in-depth philosophical discussion about the added value of the various ways in which fitness landscapes are used in the social sciences. This discussion is absent in the current working paper. Th