Verocytotoxine-producerende E.coli, risicofactoren en update Nederland

In dit rapport wordt een overzicht gepresenteerd betreffende het vóórkomen van VTEC in verschillende reservoirs, infectie incidentie, transmissieroutes, risicofactoren voor verspreiding door de voedselketen, diagnostiek, uitbraaktracering en (potentiële) interventiestrategieën. De focus is op de Nederlandse situatie en hoe die zich verhoudt met de Europese situati

Methodological framework for World Health Organization estimates of the global burden of foodborne disease

Background: The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates. Methods and Findings: The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution). All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process. Conclusions: We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level

The strain-specific dynamics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 faecal shedding in cattle post inoculation

This study reports analysis of faecal shedding dynamics in cattle for three Escherichia coli O157:H7 (ECO157) strains (S1, S2 and S3) of different genotype and ecological history, using experimental inoculation data. The three strains were compared for their shedding frequency and level of ECO157 in faeces. A multistate Markov chain model was used to compare shedding patterns of S1 and S2. Strains S1 and S2 were detected seven to eight times more often and at 104 larger levels than strain S3. Strains S1 and S2 had similar frequencies and levels of shedding. However, the total time spent in the shedding state during colonization was on average four times longer for S1 (15 days) compared to S2 (4 days). These results indicate that an ECO157 strain effect on the frequency, level, pattern and the duration of faecal shedding may need to be considered in control of ECO157 in the cattle reservoir. © 2012 Copyright R. Gautam

Filling gaps in notification data: a model-based approach applied to travel related campylobacteriosis cases in New Zealand

BACKGROUND: Data containing notified cases of disease are often compromised by incomplete or partial information related to individual cases. In an effort to enhance the value of information from enteric disease notifications in New Zealand, this study explored the use of Bayesian and Multiple Imputation (MI) models to fill risk factor data gaps. As a test case, overseas travel as a risk factor for infection with campylobacteriosis has been examined. METHODS: Two methods, namely Bayesian Specification (BAS) and Multiple Imputation (MI), were compared regarding predictive performance for various levels of artificially induced missingness of overseas travel status in campylobacteriosis notification data. Predictive performance of the models was assessed through the Brier Score, the Area Under the ROC Curve and the Percent Bias of regression coefficients. Finally, the best model was selected and applied to predict missing overseas travel status of campylobacteriosis notifications. RESULTS: While no difference was observed in the predictive performance of the BAS and MI methods at a lower rate of missingness (<10 %), but the BAS approach performed better than MI at a higher rate of missingness (50 %, 65 %, 80 %). The estimated proportion (95 % Credibility Intervals) of travel related cases was greatest in highly urban District Health Boards (DHBs) in Counties Manukau, Auckland and Waitemata, at 0.37 (0.12, 0.57), 0.33 (0.13, 0.55) and 0.28 (0.10, 0.49), whereas the lowest proportion was estimated for more rural West Coast, Northland and Tairawhiti DHBs at 0.02 (0.01, 0.05), 0.03 (0.01, 0.08) and 0.04 (0.01, 0.06), respectively. The national rate of travel related campylobacteriosis cases was estimated at 0.16 (0.02, 0.48). CONCLUSION: The use of BAS offers a flexible approach to data augmentation particularly when the missing rate is very high and when the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption holds. High rates of travel associated cases in urban regions of New Zealand predicted by this approach are plausible given the high rate of travel in these regions, including destinations with higher risk of infection. The added advantage of using a Bayesian approach is that the model’s prediction can be improved whenever new information becomes available. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1784-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Evaluation of serological tests for Trichinella infections in pigs

The Dutch slaughter pig population is practically free of Trichinella spiralis. However, at slaughter every pig is tested for presence of larvae using the digestion method for export certification . A new 2006 EU directive concerning meat inspection for Trichinella spp. offers new opportunities to monitor Trichinella at herd level instead. Also serological methods are allowed when approved by the Commumty Reference Laboratory (CRL). To evaluate the usefulness of serological tests for momtoring a virtually free population for Trichinella, Bayesian methodology was used to estimate the diagnostic test parameters sensitivity and specificity, in the absence of a Gold Standard test

Transmission of<i>Escherichia coli</i>O157:H7 in cattle is influenced by the level of environmental contamination

SUMMARYA pen infection-transmission experiment was conducted to elucidate the role of pathogen strain and environmental contamination in transmission ofEscherichia coliO157:H7 (ECO157) in cattle. Five steers were inoculated with a three-strain mixture of ECO157 and joined with five susceptible steers in each of two experimental replicates. Faecal and environmental samples were monitored for ECO157 presence over 30 days. One ECO157 strain did not spread. Transmission rates for the other two strains were estimated using a generalized linear model developed based on a modified ‘Susceptible–Infectious–Susceptible’ mathematical model. Transmission rates estimated for the two strains (0·11 and 0·14) were similar. However, the rates significantly (P = 0·0006) increased 1·5 times for every 1-unit increase in the level of environmental contamination measured as log10c.f.u. Depending on the level of environmental contamination, the estimated basic reproduction numbers varied from &lt;1 to 8. The findings indicate the importance of on-farm measures to reduce environmental contamination for ECO157 control in cattle that should be validated under field conditions.</jats:p