ALTERNATIVES AND CONSEQUENCES OF HEALTH CARE PROTOTYPES AND DEVELOPING A PUBLIC POLICY EDUCATION PROGRAM

Health Economics and Policy,

How isotropic is the Universe?

A fundamental assumption in the standard model of cosmology is that the Universe is isotropic on large scales. Breaking this assumption leads to a set of solutions to Einstein's field equations, known as Bianchi cosmologies, only a subset of which have ever been tested against data. For the first time, we consider all degrees of freedom in these solutions to conduct a general test of isotropy using cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization data from Planck. For the vector mode (associated with vorticity), we obtain a limit on the anisotropic expansion of $(\sigma_V/H)_0 < 4.7 \times 10^{-11}$ (95% CI), which is an order of magnitude tighter than previous Planck results that used CMB temperature only. We also place upper limits on other modes of anisotropic expansion, with the weakest limit arising from the regular tensor mode, $(\sigma_{T,\rm reg}/H)_0<1.0 \times 10^{-6}$ (95% CI). Including all degrees of freedom simultaneously for the first time, anisotropic expansion of the Universe is strongly disfavoured, with odds of 121,000:1 against.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, v2: replaced with version accepted by PR

A framework for testing isotropy with the cosmic microwave background

We present a new framework for testing the isotropy of the Universe using cosmic microwave background data, building on the nested-sampling ANICOSMO code. Uniquely, we are able to constrain the scalar, vector and tensor degrees of freedom alike; previous studies only considered the vector mode (linked to vorticity). We employ Bianchi type VII$_h$ cosmologies to model the anisotropic Universe, from which other types may be obtained by taking suitable limits. In a separate development, we improve the statistical analysis by including the effect of Bianchi power in the high-$\ell$, as well as the low-$\ell$, likelihood. To understand the effect of all these changes, we apply our new techniques to WMAP data. We find no evidence for anisotropy, constraining shear in the vector mode to $(\sigma_V/H)_0 < 1.7 \times 10^{-10}$ (95% CL). For the first time, we place limits on the tensor mode; unlike other modes, the tensor shear can grow from a near-isotropic early Universe. The limit on this type of shear is $(\sigma_{T,\rm reg}/H)_0 < 2.4 \times 10^{-7}$ (95% CL).Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, v3: minor modifications to match version accepted by MNRA

Optimal filters for detecting cosmic bubble collisions

A number of well-motivated extensions of the LCDM concordance cosmological model postulate the existence of a population of sources embedded in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). One such example is the signature of cosmic bubble collisions which arise in models of eternal inflation. The most unambiguous way to test these scenarios is to evaluate the full posterior probability distribution of the global parameters defining the theory; however, a direct evaluation is computationally impractical on large datasets, such as those obtained by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and Planck. A method to approximate the full posterior has been developed recently, which requires as an input a set of candidate sources which are most likely to give the largest contribution to the likelihood. In this article, we present an improved algorithm for detecting candidate sources using optimal filters, and apply it to detect candidate bubble collision signatures in WMAP 7-year observations. We show both theoretically and through simulations that this algorithm provides an enhancement in sensitivity over previous methods by a factor of approximately two. Moreover, no other filter-based approach can provide a superior enhancement of these signatures. Applying our algorithm to WMAP 7-year observations, we detect eight new candidate bubble collision signatures for follow-up analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, replaced to match version accepted by PR

Sparse Inpainting and Isotropy

Sparse inpainting techniques are gaining in popularity as a tool for cosmological data analysis, in particular for handling data which present masked regions and missing observations. We investigate here the relationship between sparse inpainting techniques using the spherical harmonic basis as a dictionary and the isotropy properties of cosmological maps, as for instance those arising from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. In particular, we investigate the possibility that inpainted maps may exhibit anisotropies in the behaviour of higher-order angular polyspectra. We provide analytic computations and simulations of inpainted maps for a Gaussian isotropic model of CMB data, suggesting that the resulting angular trispectrum may exhibit small but non-negligible deviations from isotropy.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures. v3: matches version published in JCAP; formatting changes and single typo correction only. Code available from http://zuserver2.star.ucl.ac.uk/~smf/code.htm

Alcohol consumption in young adults: the role of multisensory imagery.

Accepted 19.11.2013Little is known about the subjective experience of alcohol desire and craving in young people. Descriptions of alcohol urges continue to be extensively used in the everyday lexicon of young, non-dependent drinkers. Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory contends that imagery is central to craving and desires, and predicts that alcohol-related imagery will be associated with greater frequency and amount of drinking. This study involved 1,535 age stratified 18- 25 year olds who completed an alcohol–related survey that included the Imagery scale of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) questionnaire. Imagery items predicted 12-16% of the variance in concurrent alcohol consumption. Higher total Imagery subscale scores were linearly associated with greater drinking frequency and lower self-efficacy for moderate drinking. Interference with alcohol imagery may have promise as a preventive or early intervention target in young people

Mechanical suppression of osteolytic bone metastases in advanced breast cancer patients: A randomised controlled study protocol evaluating safety, feasibility and preliminary efficacy of exercise as a targeted medicine

Background: Skeletal metastases present a major challenge for clinicians, representing an advanced and typically incurable stage of cancer. Bone is also the most common location for metastatic breast carcinoma, with skeletal lesions identified in over 80% of patients with advanced breast cancer. Preclinical models have demonstrated the ability of mechanical stimulation to suppress tumour formation and promote skeletal preservation at bone sites with osteolytic lesions, generating modulatory interference of tumour-driven bone remodelling. Preclinical studies have also demonstrated anti-cancer effects through exercise by minimising tumour hypoxia, normalising tumour vasculature and increasing tumoural blood perfusion. This study proposes to explore the promising role of targeted exercise to suppress tumour growth while concomitantly delivering broader health benefits in patients with advanced breast cancer with osteolytic bone metastases. Methods: This single-blinded, two-armed, randomised and controlled pilot study aims to establish the safety, feasibility and efficacy of an individually tailored, modular multi-modal exercise programme incorporating spinal isometric training (targeted muscle contraction) in 40 women with advanced breast cancer and stable osteolytic spinal metastases. Participants will be randomly assigned to exercise or usual medical care. The intervention arm will receive a 3-month clinically supervised exercise programme, which if proven to be safe and efficacious will be offered to the control-arm patients following study completion. Primary endpoints (programme feasibility, safety, tolerance and adherence) and secondary endpoints (tumour morphology, serum tumour biomarkers, bone metabolism, inflammation, anthropometry, body composition, bone pain, physical function and patient-reported outcomes) will be measured at baseline and following the intervention. Discussion: Exercise medicine may positively alter tumour biology through numerous mechanical and nonmechanical mechanisms. This randomised controlled pilot trial will explore the preliminary effects of targeted exercise on tumour morphology and circulating metastatic tumour biomarkers using an osteolytic skeletal metastases model in patients with breast cancer. The study is principally aimed at establishing feasibility and safety. If proven to be safe and feasible, results from this study could have important implications for the delivery of this exercise programme to patients with advanced cancer and sclerotic skeletal metastases or with skeletal lesions present in haematological cancers (such as osteolytic lesions in multiple myeloma), for which future research is recommended. Trial registration: anzctr.org.au, ACTRN-12616001368426. Registered on 4 October 2016

Development of essentialist thinking about religion categories in Northern Ireland (and the United States)

Social essentialism, the belief that members of certain social categories share unobservable properties, licenses expectations that those categories are natural and a good basis for inference. A challenge for cognitive developmental theory is to give an account of how children come to develop essentialist beliefs about socially important categories. Previous evidence from Israel suggests that kindergarteners selectively engage in essentialist reasoning about culturally salient (ethnicity) categories, and that this is attenuated among children in integrated schools. In five studies (N=718) we used forced-choice (Study 1) and unconstrained (Studies 2-4) category-based inference tasks, and a questionnaire (Study 5) to study the development of essentialist reasoning about religion categories in Northern Ireland (Studies 1-3 &amp; 5) and the US (Study 4). Results show that, as in Israel, Northern Irish children selectively engage in essentialist reasoning about culturally salient (religion) categories, and that such reasoning is attenuated among children in integrated schools. However, the development trajectory of essentialist thinking and the patterns of attenuation among children attending integrated schools in Northern Ireland differ from the Israeli case. Meta-analysis confirmed this claim and ruled out an alternative explanation of the results based on community diversity. Although the Northern Irish and Israeli case studies illustrate that children develop selective essentialist beliefs about socially important categories, and that these beliefs are impacted by educational context, the differences between them emphasize the importance of historical, cultural, and political context in understanding conceptual development, and suggest that there may be more than one developmental route to social essentialism

Criminal narrative experience: relating emotions to offence narrative roles during crime commission

A neglected area of research within criminality has been that of the experience of the offence for the offender. The present study investigates the emotions and narrative roles that are experienced by an offender while committing a broad range of crimes and proposes a model of Criminal Narrative Experience (CNE). Hypotheses were derived from the Circumplex of Emotions (Russell, 1997), Frye (1957), Narrative Theory (McAdams, 1988) and its link with Investigative Psychology (Canter, 1994). The analysis was based on 120 cases. Convicted for a variety of crimes, incarcerated criminals were interviewed and the data were subjected to Smallest Space Analysis (SSA). Four themes of Criminal Narrative Experience (CNE) were identified: Elated Hero, Calm Professional, Distressed Revenger and Depressed Victim in line with the recent theoretical framework posited for Narrative Offence Roles (Youngs & Canter, 2012). The theoretical implications for understanding crime on the basis of the Criminal Narrative Experience (CNE) as well as practical implications are discussed