Controlling for transactions bias in regional house price indices

Transactions bias arises when properties that trade are not a random sample of the total housing stock. Price indices are susceptible because they are typically based on transactions data. Existing approaches to this problem rely on Heckman-type correction methods, where a probit regression is used to capture the differences between properties that sell and those that do not sell in a given period. However, this approach can only be applied where there is reliable data on the whole housing stock. In many countries—the UK included—no such data exist and there is little prospect of correcting for transactions bias in any of the regularly updated mainstream house price indices. Thispaper suggests a possible alternative approach, using information at postcode sector level and Fractional Probit Regression to correct for transactions bias in hedonic price indices based on one and a half million house sales from 1996 to 2004, distributed across 1200 postcode sectors in the South East of England

Reference Distorted Prices

I show that when consumers (mis)perceive prices relative to reference prices, budgets turn out to be soft, prices tend to be lower and the average quality of goods sold decreases. These observations provide explanations for decentralized purchase decisions, for people being happy with a purchase even when they have paid their evaluation, and for why trade might affect high quality local firms 'unfairly'

The Spatial Dimension of US House Price Developments

Spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence are two well established aspects of house price developments. However, the analysis of differences in spatial dependence across time and space has not gained much attention yet. In this paper we jointly analyze these three aspects of spatial data. We apply a panel smooth transition regression model that allows for heterogeneity across time and space in spatial house price spillovers and for heterogeneity in the effect of the fundamentals on house price dynamics. We find evidence for heterogeneity in spatial spillovers of house price developments across space and time: house price developments in neighboring regions spill over stronger in times of increasing neighboring house prices compared to declining neighboring house prices. This is interpreted as evidence for the disposition effect. Moreover, heterogeneity in the effect of the fundamentals on house price dynamics could not be detected for all variables; real per capita disposable income and the unemployment rate have a homogeneous effect across time and space

Tractable consumer choice

We derive a rational model of separable consumer choice which can also serve as a behavioral model. The central construct is [lambda] , the marginal utility of money, derived from the consumer's rest-of-life problem. We present a robust approximation of [lambda], and show how to incorporate liquidity constraints, indivisibilities and adaptation to a changing environment. We fi nd connections with numerous historical and recent constructs, both behavioral and neoclassical, and draw contrasts with standard partial equilibrium analysis. The result is a better grounded, more flexible and more intuitive description of consumer choice