On the HU Aquarii planetary system hypothesis

In this work, we investigate the eclipse timing of the polar binary HU Aquarii that has been observed for almost two decades. Recently, Qian et al. attributed large (O-C) deviations between the eclipse ephemeris and observations to a compact system of two massive jovian companions. We improve the Keplerian, kinematic model of the Light Travel Time (LTT) effect and re-analyse the whole currently available data set. We add almost 60 new, yet unpublished, mostly precision light curves obtained using the time high-resolution photo-polarimeter OPTIMA, as well as photometric observations performed at the MONET/N, PIRATE and TCS telescopes. We determine new mid--egress times with a mean uncertainty at the level of 1 second or better. We claim that because the observations that currently exist in the literature are non-homogeneous with respect to spectral windows (ultraviolet, X-ray, visual, polarimetric mode) and the reported mid--egress measurements errors, they may introduce systematics that affect orbital fits. Indeed, we find that the published data, when taken literally, cannot be explained by any unique solution. Many qualitatively different and best-fit 2-planet configurations, including self-consistent, Newtonian N-body solutions may be able to explain the data. However, using high resolution, precision OPTIMA light curves, we find that the (O-C) deviations are best explained by the presence of a single circumbinary companion orbiting at a distance of ~4.5 AU with a small eccentricity and having ~7 Jupiter-masses. This object could be the next circumbinary planet detected from the ground, similar to the announced companions around close binaries HW Vir, NN Ser, UZ For, DP Leo or SZ Her, and planets of this type around Kepler-16, Kepler-34 and Kepler-35.Comment: 20 pages, 18 figures, accepted to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS

Departure from the constant-period ephemeris for the transiting exoplanet WASP-12 b

Most hot Jupiters are expected to spiral in towards their host stars due to transfering of the angular momentum of the orbital motion to the stellar spin. Their orbits can also precess due to planet-star interactions. Calculations show that both effects could be detected for the very-hot exoplanet WASP-12 b using the method of precise transit timing over a timespan of the order of 10 yr. We acquired new precise light curves for 29 transits of WASP-12 b, spannning 4 observing seasons from November 2012 to February 2016. New mid-transit times, together with literature ones, were used to refine the transit ephemeris and analyse the timing residuals. We find that the transit times of WASP-12 b do not follow a linear ephemeris with a 5 sigma confidence level. They may be approximated with a quadratic ephemeris that gives a rate of change in the orbital period of -2.56 +/- 0.40 x 10^{-2} s/yr. The tidal quality parameter of the host star was found to be equal to 2.5 x 10^5 that is comparable to theoretical predictions for Sun-like stars. We also consider a model, in which the observed timing residuals are interpreted as a result of the apsidal precession. We find, however, that this model is statistically less probable than the orbital decay.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A Letter

Multi-site campaign for transit timing variations of WASP-12 b: possible detection of a long-period signal of planetary origin

The transiting planet WASP-12 b was identified as a potential target for transit timing studies because a departure from a linear ephemeris was reported in the literature. Such deviations could be caused by an additional planet in the system. We attempt to confirm the existence of claimed variations in transit timing and interpret its origin. We organised a multi-site campaign to observe transits by WASP-12 b in three observing seasons, using 0.5-2.6-metre telescopes. We obtained 61 transit light curves, many of them with sub-millimagnitude precision. The simultaneous analysis of the best-quality datasets allowed us to obtain refined system parameters, which agree with values reported in previous studies. The residuals versus a linear ephemeris reveal a possible periodic signal that may be approximated by a sinusoid with an amplitude of 0.00068+/-0.00013 d and period of 500+/-20 orbital periods of WASP-12 b. The joint analysis of timing data and published radial velocity measurements results in a two-planet model which better explains observations than single-planet scenarios. We hypothesize that WASP-12 b might be not the only planet in the system and there might be the additional 0.1 M_Jup body on a 3.6-d eccentric orbit. A dynamical analysis indicates that the proposed two-planet system is stable over long timescales.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

The Transiting System GJ1214: High-Precision Defocused Transit Observations and a Search for Evidence of Transit Timing Variation

Aims: We present 11 high-precision photometric transit observations of the transiting super-Earth planet GJ1214b. Combining these data with observations from other authors, we investigate the ephemeris for possible signs of transit timing variations (TTVs) using a Bayesian approach. Methods: The observations were obtained using telescope-defocusing techniques, and achieve a high precision with random errors in the photometry as low as 1mmag per point. To investigate the possibility of TTVs in the light curve, we calculate the overall probability of a TTV signal using Bayesian methods. Results: The observations are used to determine the photometric parameters and the physical properties of the GJ1214 system. Our results are in good agreement with published values. Individual times of mid-transit are measured with uncertainties as low as 10s, allowing us to reduce the uncertainty in the orbital period by a factor of two. Conclusions: A Bayesian analysis reveals that it is highly improbable that the observed transit times is explained by TTV, when compared with the simpler alternative of a linear ephemeris.Comment: Submitted to A&

OGLE-2009-BLG-092/MOA-2009-BLG-137: A Dramatic Repeating Event With the Second Perturbation Predicted by Real-Time Analysis

We report the result of the analysis of a dramatic repeating gravitational microlensing event OGLE-2009-BLG-092/MOA-2009-BLG-137, for which the light curve is characterized by two distinct peaks with perturbations near both peaks. We find that the event is produced by the passage of the source trajectory over the central perturbation regions associated with the individual components of a wide-separation binary. The event is special in the sense that the second perturbation, occurring $\sim 100$ days after the first, was predicted by the real-time analysis conducted after the first peak, demonstrating that real-time modeling can be routinely done for binary and planetary events. With the data obtained from follow-up observations covering the second peak, we are able to uniquely determine the physical parameters of the lens system. We find that the event occurred on a bulge clump giant and it was produced by a binary lens composed of a K and M-type main-sequence stars. The estimated masses of the binary components are $M_1=0.69 \pm 0.11\ M_\odot$ and $M_2=0.36\pm 0.06\ M_\odot$, respectively, and they are separated in projection by $r_\perp=10.9\pm 1.3\ {\rm AU}$. The measured distance to the lens is $D_{\rm L}=5.6 \pm 0.7\ {\rm kpc}$. We also detect the orbital motion of the lens system.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

High-precision photometry by telescope defocussing. III. The transiting planetary system WASP-2

We present high-precision photometry of three transits of the extrasolar planetary system WASP-2, obtained by defocussing the telescope, and achieving point-to-point scatters of between 0.42 and 0.73 mmag. These data are modelled using the JKTEBOP code, and taking into account the light from the recently-discovered faint star close to the system. The physical properties of the WASP-2 system are derived using tabulated predictions from five different sets of stellar evolutionary models, allowing both statistical and systematic errorbars to be specified. We find the mass and radius of the planet to be M_b = 0.847 +/- 0.038 +/- 0.024 Mjup and R_b = 1.044 +/- 0.029 +/- 0.015 Rjup. It has a low equilibrium temperature of 1280 +/- 21 K, in agreement with a recent finding that it does not have an atmospheric temperature inversion. The first of our transit datasets has a scatter of only 0.42 mmag with respect to the best-fitting light curve model, which to our knowledge is a record for ground-based observations of a transiting extrasolar planet.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 9 pages, 3 figures, 10 table

MOA-2009-BLG-387Lb: A massive planet orbiting an M dwarf

We report the discovery of a planet with a high planet-to-star mass ratio in the microlensing event MOA-2009-BLG-387, which exhibited pronounced deviations over a 12-day interval, one of the longest for any planetary event. The host is an M dwarf, with a mass in the range 0.07 M_sun < M_host < 0.49M_sun at 90% confidence. The planet-star mass ratio q = 0.0132 +- 0.003 has been measured extremely well, so at the best-estimated host mass, the planet mass is m_p = 2.6 Jupiter masses for the median host mass, M = 0.19 M_sun. The host mass is determined from two "higher order" microlensing parameters. One of these, the angular Einstein radius \theta_E = 0.31 +- 0.03 mas, is very well measured, but the other (the microlens parallax \pi_E, which is due to the Earth's orbital motion) is highly degenate with the orbital motion of the planet. We statistically resolve the degeneracy between Earth and planet orbital effects by imposing priors from a Galactic model that specifies the positions and velocities of lenses and sources and a Kepler model of orbits. The 90% confidence intervals for the distance, semi-major axis, and period of the planet are 3.5 kpc < D_L < 7.9 kpc, 1.1 AU < a < 2.7AU, and 3.8 yr < P < 7.6 yr, respectively.Comment: 20 pages including 8 figures. A&A 529 102 (2011

Estimation des facteurs de risque de la progression de la scoliose idiopathique de l’adolescence

Cette étude a pour but de tester si l’ajout de variables biomécaniques, telles que celles associées à la morphologie, la posture et l’équilibre, permet d’améliorer l’efficacité à dissocier 29 sujets ayant une scoliose progressive de 45 sujets ayant une scoliose non progressive. Dans une étude rétrospective, un groupe d’apprentissage (Cobb: 27,1±10,6°) a été utilisé avec cinq modèles faisant intervenir des variables cliniques, morphologiques, posturales et d’équilibre et la progression de la scoliose. Un groupe test (Cobb: 14,2±8,3°) a ensuite servit à évaluer les modèles dans une étude prospective. Afin d’établir l’efficacité de l’ajout de variables biomécaniques, le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984) a été utilisé à titre d’étalon de mesures. Le groupe d’apprentissage a été utilisé pour développer quatre modèles de classification. Le modèle sans réduction fut composé de 35 variables tirées de la littérature. Dans le modèle avec réduction, une ANCOVA a servit de méthode de réduction pour passer de 35 à 8 variables et l’analyse par composantes principales a été utilisée pour passer de 35 à 7 variables. Le modèle expert fut composé de huit variables sélectionnées d’après l’expérience clinque. L’analyse discriminante, la régression logistique et l’analyse par composantes principales ont été appliquées afin de classer les sujets comme progressifs ou non progressifs. La régression logistique utilisée avec le modèle sans réduction a présenté l’efficience la plus élevée (0,94), tandis que l’analyse discriminante utilisée avec le modèle expert a montré l’efficience la plus faible (0,87). Ces résultats montrent un lien direct entre un ensemble de paramètres cliniques et biomécaniques et la progression de la scoliose idiopathique. Le groupe test a été utilisé pour appliquer les modèles développés à partir du groupe d’apprentissage. L’efficience la plus élevée (0,89) fut obtenue en utilisant l’analyse discriminante et la régression logistique avec le modèle sans réduction, alors que la plus faible (0,78) fut obtenue en utilisant le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984). Ces valeurs permettent d’avancer que l’ajout de variables biomécaniques aux données cliniques améliore l’efficacité de la dissociation entre des sujets scoliotiques progressifs et non progressifs. Afin de vérifier la précision des modèles, les aires sous les courbes ROC ont été calculées. L’aire sous la courbe ROC la plus importante (0,93) fut obtenue avec l’analyse discriminante utilisée avec le modèle sans réduction, tandis que la plus faible (0,63) fut obtenue avec le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984). Le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984) n’a pu séparer les cas positifs des cas négatifs avec autant de précision que les modèles biomécaniques. L’ajout de variables biomécaniques aux données cliniques a permit d’améliorer l’efficacité de la dissociation entre des sujets scoliotiques progressifs et non progressifs. Ces résultats permettent d’avancer qu’il existe d’autres facteurs que les paramètres cliniques pour identifier les patients à risque de progresser. Une approche basée sur plusieurs types de paramètres tient compte de la nature multifactorielle de la scoliose idiopathique et s’avère probablement mieux adaptée pour en prédire la progression.The purpose of this study is to examine whether the addition of biomechanical variables, such as variables associated with morphology, posture and balance, produce an increase in dissociation efficiency of 29 subjects with progressive scoliosis from 45 subjects with non progressive scoliosis. In a retrospective study, a learning group (Cobb: 27,1±10,6°) was used with five models comprising clinical, morphological, postural and balance variables and scoliosis progression. A testing group (Cobb: 14,2±8,3°) was then used to evaluate the models in a prospective study. In order to establish the efficiency of the addition of biomechanical variables, Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model was used as a reference. The learning group was used to develop four classification models. The model without reduction was composed of 35 variables taken from the literature. In the model with reduction, an ANCOVA served as a reduction method to go from 35 to 8 variables and principal component analysis was used to go from 35 to 7 variables. The expert model was composed of eight variables selected according to clinical experience. Discriminant analysis, logistic regression and principal component analysis were applied in order to classify the subjects as progressive or non progressive. Logistic regression used with the model without reduction presented the highest efficiency (0,94), whereas discriminant analysis used with the expert model showed the lowest efficiency (0,87). These results show a direct relation between a group of clinical and biomechanical parameters and idiopathic scoliosis progression. The testing group was used to apply the models developed from the learning group. The highest efficiency (0,89) was obtained with the use of discriminant analysis and logistic regression and the model without reduction, as the lowest (0,78) was obtained with the use of Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model. These values suggest that the addition of biomechanical variables to clinical data increases dissociation efficiency between progressive and non progressive scoliotic subjects. In order to verify the precision of the models, the area under the ROC curve was calculated. The largest area under the ROC curve (0,93) was obtained with the discriminant analysis used with the model without reduction, whereas the lowest (0,63) was obtained with Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model. Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model could not separate the positive cases from the negative cases with the same amount of precision compared with the biomechanical models. The addition of biomechanical variables to clinical data allowed increasing dissociation efficiency between progressive and non progressive scoliotic subjects. These results suggest that factors other than clinical parameters can identify patients at risk of progression. An approach based on many types of parameters takes into account the multi-factorial nature of idiopathic scoliosis and appears to be better adapted to predict it’s progression

Discovery of a Third Transiting Planet in the Kepler-47 Circumbinary System

Of the nine confirmed transiting circumbinary planet systems, only Kepler-47 is known to contain more than one planet. Kepler-47 b (the "inner planet") has an orbital period of 49.5 days and a radius of about 3 R⊕. Kepler-47 c (the "outer planet") has an orbital period of 303.2 days and a radius of about 4.7 R⊕. Here we report the discovery of a third planet, Kepler-47 d (the "middle planet"), which has an orbital period of 187.4 days and a radius of about 7 R⊕. The presence of the middle planet allows us to place much better constraints on the masses of all three planets, where the 1σranges are less than 26 M⊕, between 7–43 M⊕, and between 2–5 M⊕ for the inner, middle, and outer planets, respectively. The middle and outer planets have low bulk densities, with ρ_(middle) < 0.68 g cm^(−3) and ρ_(outer) < 0.26 g cm^(−3) at the 1σ level. The two outer planets are "tightly packed," assuming the nominal masses, meaning no other planet could stably orbit between them. All of the orbits have low eccentricities and are nearly coplanar, disfavoring violent scattering scenarios and suggesting gentle migration in the protoplanetary disk