Effects of stochastic parametrization on extreme value statistics

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations are computational tools used in the Earth system models, which are aimed at reproducing the impact of unresolved scales on resolved scales. The performance of parametrizations has usually been examined on typical events rather than on extreme events. In this paper, we consider a modified version of the two-level Lorenz’96 model and investigate how two parametrizations of the fast degrees of freedom perform in terms of the representation of extreme events. One parametrization is constructed following Wilks [Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 389–407 (2005)] and is constructed through an empirical fitting procedure; the other parametrization is constructed through the statistical mechanical approach proposed by Wouters and Lucarini [J. Stat. Mech. Theory Exp. 2012, P03003 (2012); J. Stat. Phys. 151, 850–860 (2013)]. The two strategies show different advantages and disadvantages. We discover that the agreement between parametrized models and true model is in general worse when looking at extremes rather than at the bulk of the statistics. The results suggest that stochastic parametrizations should be accurately and specifically tested against their performance on extreme events, as usual optimization procedures might neglect them. The provision of accurate parametrizations is a task of paramount importance in many scientific areas and specifically in weather and climate modeling. Parametrizations are needed for representing accurately and efficiently the impact of the scales of motions and of the processes that cannot be explicitly represented by the numerical model. Parametrizations are usually constructed in order to optimize the overall performance of the model, thus aiming at an accurate representation of the bulk of the statistics. Nonetheless, numerical models are key to estimating, anticipating, and predicting extreme events. Here, we analyze critically in a simple yet illustrative example the performance of parametrizations in describing extreme events, and we conclude that good performance on typical conditions cannot be in any way extrapolated for rare conditions, which could, nonetheless, be of great practical relevance

Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management

We analyze the contribution of human water management to the intensification and mitigation of hydrological drought over California using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that considering water management results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ∼50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of human activities

Smoothed Particle Magnetohydrodynamics III. Multidimensional tests and the div B = 0 constraint

In two previous papers (Price & Monaghan 2004a,b) (papers I,II) we have described an algorithm for solving the equations of Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method. The algorithm uses dissipative terms in order to capture shocks and has been tested on a wide range of one dimensional problems in both adiabatic and isothermal MHD. In this paper we investigate multidimensional aspects of the algorithm, refining many of the aspects considered in papers I and II and paying particular attention to the code's ability to maintain the div B = 0 constraint associated with the magnetic field. In particular we implement a hyperbolic divergence cleaning method recently proposed by Dedner et al. (2002) in combination with the consistent formulation of the MHD equations in the presence of non-zero magnetic divergence derived in papers I and II. Various projection methods for maintaining the divergence-free condition are also examined. Finally the algorithm is tested against a wide range of multidimensional problems used to test recent grid-based MHD codes. A particular finding of these tests is that in SPMHD the magnitude of the divergence error is dependent on the number of neighbours used to calculate a particle's properties and only weakly dependent on the total number of particles. Whilst many improvements could still be made to the algorithm, our results suggest that the method is ripe for application to problems of current theoretical interest, such as that of star formation.Comment: Here is the latest offering in my quest for a decent SPMHD algorithm. 26 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. Version with high res figures available from http://www.astro.ex.ac.uk/people/dprice/pubs/spmhd/spmhdpaper3.pd

Insulin resistance is higher in prepubertal girls but switches to become higher in boys at age 16:A Cohort Study (EarlyBird 57)

Background: The risk of type 2 diabetes is increasing in teenage girls, and is associated with their greater insulin resistance (IR).Hypothesis: We hypothesized that the adverse metabolic profile of girls (compared with boys) would persist from childhood through adolescence.Patients and Methods: Community-based longitudinal cohort of 292 children (147 boys) studied annually from 9 to 16 years.Measures: IR (homeostasis-model-assessment-2), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, % body-fat (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry), pubertal stage (age at peak height velocity), physical activity (accelerometry). Multi-level modelling established the age-related trends in IR and lipids and the influence of covariates.Results: Each year from 9 to 15 years, girls had 21% to 63% higher IR than boys (girls mean IR 0.73-1.33, boys 0.51-0.89, P &lt; .005). At 16 years the gender difference was not significant (girls IR 0.60, boys 0.56, P = .45). Girls had lower HDL-C from 9 to 12 years, higher triglycerides from 9 to 14 years, greater adiposity throughout, and earlier puberty, but boys were more active than girls (all P &lt; .05). After adjustment for %-fat, puberty and activity, the gender difference in IR between girls and boys aged 9 to 15 years became non-significant (IR girls 0.66-1.01, boys 0.65-1.04, P &gt; .07). However, after adjustment at 16 years, girls' IR was 25% lower than boys' (girls 0.44, boys 0.63, P = .001), and they had 22% higher HDL-C (P &lt; .001) and 20% lower triglycerides (P = .003).Conclusions: The higher IR of prepubertal and early pubertal girls diminishes during late puberty, and boys begin to exhibit greater metabolic risk. Despite being leaner and more active, boys at 16 years have higher IR than girls, suggesting future higher risk for diabetes, thus we reject our hypothesis.</p

Potato storage research in W.A

Preliminary results of research into refrigerated storage of potatoes indicate that the qyality and out-turn are influenced more by the variety of potato stored than by storage conditions

Evidence for energy conservation during pubertal growth. A 10-year longitudinal study (EarlyBird 71)

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is closely linked to obesity, and obesity rates climb during adolescence for reasons that are not clear. Energy efficiency is important to obesity, and we describe a temporary but substantial fall in absolute energy expenditure, compatible with improved energy efficiency, during the rapid growth phase of puberty. METHODS: In a longitudinal cohort study lasting 10 years, we measured voluntary energy expenditure as physical activity (PA) by accelerometry, involuntary energy expenditure as resting energy expenditure (REE) by oxygen consumption, body mass index (BMI) and body composition by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry annually on 10 occasions from 7 to 16 years in the 347 children of the EarlyBird study. We used mixed effects modelling to analyse the trends in REE and their relationship to BMI, lean mass (LM), fat mass (FM), age, PA and pubertal stage. RESULTS: Relative REE and total PA fell during puberty, as previously described, but the longitudinal data and narrow age-range of the cohort (s.d.±4m) revealed for the first time a substantial fall in absolute REE during the period of maximum growth. The fall became clearer still when adjusted for FM and LM. The fall could not be explained by fasting insulin, adiponectin, leptin, luteinising hormone or follicle stimulating hormone. CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be a temporary but substantial reduction in energy expenditure during puberty, which is unrelated to changes in body composition. If it means higher energy efficiency, the fall in REE could be advantageous in an evolutionary context to delivering the extra energy needed for pubertal growth, but unfavourable to weight gain in a contemporary environment.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 4 October 2016; doi:10.1038/ijo.2016.158.We are grateful to the Bright futures trust, Fountain Foundation, BUPA Foundation, EarlyBird Diabetes Trust and countless individual donors who made this study possible

THE AMUNDSEN SEA LOW Variability, Change, and Impact on Antarctic Climate

The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is a climatological low pressure center that exerts considerable influence on the climate of West Antarctica. Its potential to explain important recent changes in Antarctic climate, for example, in temperature and sea ice extent, means that it has become the focus of an increasing number of studies. Here, the authors summarize the current understanding of the ASL, using reanalysis datasets to analyze recent variability and trends, as well as ice-core chemistry and climate model projections, to examine past and future changes in the ASL, respectively. The ASL has deepened in recent decades, affecting the climate through its influence on the regional meridional wind field, which controls the advection of moisture and heat into the continent. Deepening of the ASL in spring is consistent with observed West Antarctic warming and greater sea ice extent in the Ross Sea. Climate model simulations for recent decades indicate that this deepening is mediated by tropical variability while climate model projections through the twenty-first century suggest that the ASL will deepen in some seasons in response to greenhouse gas concentration increases

Ogre and Pythia: An Invariance Proof Method for Weak Consistency Models

We design an invariance proof method for concurrent programs parameterised by a weak consistency model. The calculational design of the invariance proof method is by abstract interpretation of a truly parallel analytic semantics. This generalises the methods by Lamport and Owicki-Gries for sequential consistency. We use cat as an example of language to write consistency specifications of both concurrent programs and machine architectures

Assessment of new potato varieties in Western Australia

THE Mediterranean type of climate and low elevation of land in the South-West of Western Australia permits a year-round cycle of potato planting. An early crop is planted in frost-free areas in June and July for harvest between October and December. This is followed by a midseason crop, planted in August-October for harvest between December and March, and a late crop, planted November-April for harvest between March and Septembe