Lessons from Iraq and Chilcot

The UK’s Chilcot Report into the 2003 invasion of Iraq, has some essential lessons for all Ministries of Defence to take on board when it comes to ensuring troops have the equipment and support they need, before the next major military operation starts

Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence

The empirical relationship between capital controls and the financial development of credit and equity markets is examined. We extend the literature on this subject along a number of dimensions. Specifically, we (1) investigate a substantially broader set of proxy measures of financial development; (2) create and utilize a new index based on the IMF measures of exchange restrictions that incorporates a measure of the intensity of capital controls; and (3) extend the previous literature by systematically examining the implications of institutional (legal) factors. The results suggest that the rate of financial development, as measured by private credit creation and stock market activity, is linked to the existence of capital controls. However, the strength of this relationship varies with the empirical measure used, and the level of development. These results also suggest that only in an environment characterized by a combination of a higher level of legal and institutional development will the link between financial openness and financial development be readily detectable. A disaggregated analysis indicates that in emerging markets the most important components of these legal factors are the levels of shareholder protection and of accounting standards.

What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions

We extend our earlier work, focusing on the links between capital account liberalization, legal and institutional development, and financial development, especially that in equity markets. In a panel data analysis encompassing 108 countries and twenty years ranging from 1980 to 2000, we explore several dimensions of the financial sector. First, we test whether financial openness can lead to equity market development when we control for the level of legal and institutional development. Then, we examine whether the opening of the goods sector is a precondition for financial opening. Finally, we investigate whether a well-developed banking sector is a precondition for financial liberalization to lead to equity market development and also whether bank and equity market development complements or substitutes. Our empirical results suggest that a higher level of financial openness contributes to the development of equity markets only if a threshold level of general legal systems and institutions is attained, which is more prevalent among emerging market countries. Among emerging market countries, a higher level of bureaucratic quality and law and order, as well as the lower levels of corruption, increases the effect of financial opening in fostering the development of equity markets. We also find that the finance-related legal/institutional variables do not enhance the effect of capital account opening as strongly as the general legal/institutional variables. In examining the issue of the sequencing, we find that the liberalization in cross-border goods transactions is found to be a precondition for capital account liberalization. Our findings also indicate that the development in the banking sector is a precondition for equity market development, and that the developments in these two types of financial markets have synergistic effects.

Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"

We investigate the medium-term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development, with a goal of informing the recent debate over the existence and relevance of the "savings glut." The economic environmental factors that we consider are the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for industrial countries, the government budget balance is an important determinant of the current account balance; the budget balance coefficient is 0.21 in a specification controlling for institutional variables. More interestingly, our empirical findings are not consistent with the argument that the more developed financial markets are, the less saving a country undertakes. We find that this posited relationship is applicable only for countries with highly developed legal systems and open financial markets. For less developed countries and emerging market countries we usually find the reverse correlation; greater financial development leads to higher savings. Furthermore, there is no evidence of "excess domestic saving" in the Asian emerging market countries; rather they seem to have suffered from depressed investment in the wake of the 1997 financial crises. We also find evidence that the more developed equity markets are, the more likely countries are to run current account deficits.

Anglo-French defence cooperation in the age of austerity

This paper seeks to assess, from a predominantly UK perspective, the potential benefits of enhanced Anglo-French defence cooperation, not only to the two countries concerned but also to Western Europe and the USA. The paper will mainly focus on defence cooperation and not the subordinate agreement regarding limited cooperation on nuclear weapons, which addressed cooperation on the safety and security of nuclear weapons, stockpile certification and countering nuclear and radiological terrorism but seemed to be driven by "acute financial pressures, symptomatic of severe structural deficiencies"

International Stock Market Efficiency: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach

This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1991). Our empirical results provide a new perspective that the international linkages and market efficiency change over time and that their behaviors correspond well to historical events of the international financial system.Comment: 21 pages, 2 tables, 6 figure

Stability of accelerating cosmology in two scalar-tensor theory: Little Rip versus de Sitter

We develop the general reconstruction scheme in two scalar model. The quintom-like theory which may describe (different) non-singular Little Rip or de Sitter cosmology is reconstructed. (In)stability of such dark energy cosmologies as well as the flow to fixed points is studied. The stability of Little Rip universe which leads to dissolution of bound objects sometime in future indicates that no classical transition to de Sitter space occurs.Comment: LaTeX 27 pages, 12 figures, version appeared in Entrop

Implications for the U.S. of Anglo-French Defense Cooperation

The paper analyzes, from a predominantly UK perspective, the implications for the U.S. of the November 2, 2010, Anglo-French Defence Cooperation Treaty. The current pressures on British and French defence budgets were the primary driving force behind this cooperative effort. London and Paris have made steps toward improving joint efforts in a number of areas, with defence acquisition and industrial cooperation being prominent. In the UK, there appears to be strong political support at the highest levels, which has permeated to lower levels in the bureaucracy, while the UK defence industry appears to be cautiously optimistic about future business opportunities. The impact of enhanced Anglo-French cooperation on the U.S. would appear to be largely favourable for Washington. Rather than providing a basis for weakened UK attention to the U.S., as some fear, the efforts by London and Paris will potentially generate greater national military capability from scarce resources and could serve as a vehicle for broader European efforts to enhance their defence capabilities. While multinational European military development projects are viewed with scepticism in the UK, the Anglo-French arrangement could strengthen the prospects for bilateral projects in which other European states may elect to participate

Cookie Clicker

Cookie Clicker is a popular online incremental game where the goal of the game is to generate as many cookies as possible. In the game you start with an initial cookie generation rate, and you can use cookies as currency to purchase various items that increase your cookie generation rate. In this paper, we analyze strategies for playing Cookie Clicker optimally. While simple to state, the game gives rise to interesting analysis involving ideas from NP-hardness, approximation algorithms, and dynamic programming