Modeling European hot spells using extreme value analysis

Atmospheric blocking in mainland Europe is often cited as the cause of extremely high temperatures lasting several days. By definition, extreme temperatures are rare, and yet the theory of extreme value statistics has seldom been applied to quantify the influence of atmospheric blocking on hot spells. Similarly, a comparison of the relative influence of other well-known atmospheric drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has seldom been explored. We applied a novel combination of extreme value and geometric distributions to observed daily temperature maxima from 74 stations across Europe, covering 1951−2010, to establish a stationary model of the expected magnitude, frequency and duration of hot spells that did not explicitly account for atmospheric drivers. Monthly time series of NAO, ENSO and 4 coherent atmospheric blocking regions were then incorporated as nonstationary covariates in the distribution parameter estimates to assess the dependence of hot spells on atmospheric covariates. We concluded that ENSO does not have a significant influence on hot spell magnitude or frequency; the NAO is a significant driver of hot spell magnitude (maximum attained temperature), frequency (annual event count) and duration (length of event) in northern Europe and Atlantic bordering stations; and atmospheric blocking is a significant driver of all aspects of hot spells in all parts of Europe. While NAO may increase peak temperatures by 2−4°C only in the north, relatively strong atmospheric blocking could result in increased temperatures of at least 4°C higher across Europe, with a commensurate increase in hot spell duration of 2−4 d

Microsite Influence on Woody Plant Regeneration in a Pinus palustris Woodland Following Catastrophic Disturbance

Information and material biological legacies that persist after catastrophic forest disturbance collectively constitute the ecological memory of the system and may strongly influence future stand development. Catastrophic disturbances often result in an influx of coarse woody debris (CWD), and this material legacy may provide beneficial microsites that affect successional and structural developmental pathways. We examined how microenvironmental characteristics influence the regeneration of woody plants in a subtropical woodland that experienced a large influx of CWD from a catastrophic wind disturbance. Specifically, we asked (1) what microenvironmental factors best explain woody plant density, richness, and height in the regeneration layer and (2) does woody plant density, richness, and height benefit from the large influx of CWD to a degree that competition dynamics and succession may be modified? Data were collected in a Pinus palustris woodland that had experienced an EF3 tornado and was subjected to a four-year prescribed fire rotation. We documented live woody plants &lt;5 cm diameter at breast height, soil, and site characteristics and tested for differences in seedling and sapling density, species richness, and height in relation to CWD proximity. We used a random forest machine learning algorithm to examine the influence of microenvironmental conditions on the characteristics of woody plants in the regeneration layer. Woody plant density and species richness were not significantly different by proximity to CWD, but plants near CWD were slightly taller than plants away from CWD. The best predictors of woody plant density, richness, and height were abiotic site characteristics including slope gradient and azimuth, organic matter depth and weight, and soil water content. Results indicated that the regeneration of woody plants in this P. palustris woodland was not strongly influenced by the influx of CWD, but by other biological legacies such as existing root networks and soil characteristics. Our study highlights the need to consider ecological memory in forest management decision-making after catastrophic disturbance. Information and material legacies shape recovery patterns, but, depending on the system, some legacies will be more influential on successional and developmental pathways than others.</jats:p

Microsite Influence on Woody Plant Regeneration in a Pinus palustris Woodland Following Catastrophic Disturbance

Information and material biological legacies that persist after catastrophic forest disturbance collectively constitute the ecological memory of the system and may strongly influence future stand development. Catastrophic disturbances often result in an influx of coarse woody debris (CWD), and this material legacy may provide beneficial microsites that affect successional and structural developmental pathways. We examined how microenvironmental characteristics influence the regeneration of woody plants in a subtropical woodland that experienced a large influx of CWD from a catastrophic wind disturbance. Specifically, we asked (1) what microenvironmental factors best explain woody plant density, richness, and height in the regeneration layer and (2) does woody plant density, richness, and height benefit from the large influx of CWD to a degree that competition dynamics and succession may be modified? Data were collected in a Pinus palustris woodland that had experienced an EF3 tornado and was subjected to a four-year prescribed fire rotation. We documented live woody plants &lt;5 cm diameter at breast height, soil, and site characteristics and tested for differences in seedling and sapling density, species richness, and height in relation to CWD proximity. We used a random forest machine learning algorithm to examine the influence of microenvironmental conditions on the characteristics of woody plants in the regeneration layer. Woody plant density and species richness were not significantly different by proximity to CWD, but plants near CWD were slightly taller than plants away from CWD. The best predictors of woody plant density, richness, and height were abiotic site characteristics including slope gradient and azimuth, organic matter depth and weight, and soil water content. Results indicated that the regeneration of woody plants in this P. palustris woodland was not strongly influenced by the influx of CWD, but by other biological legacies such as existing root networks and soil characteristics. Our study highlights the need to consider ecological memory in forest management decision-making after catastrophic disturbance. Information and material legacies shape recovery patterns, but, depending on the system, some legacies will be more influential on successional and developmental pathways than others

Tree Encroachment Of A Sawgrass (Cladium Jamaicense) Marsh Within An Increasingly Urbanized Ecosystem

Fire suppression and altered water drainage often change community structure and species composition in human-dominated ecosystems. We describe the decline of sawgrass marshes between 1940 and 2002, and assess the current condition of remnant marshes within the MacKay Tract, an isolated wetland embedded within rapidly developing eastern Orlando, Florida. We tested the correlation between live sawgrass and presence of adult hardwood trees and seedlings (primarily red maple, Acer rubrum) and describe vegetation in plots with different levels of tree encroachment. Total area occupied by open sawgrass in the MacKay Tract has declined dramatically the last 60 years; in 2006, open sawgrass comprised only 12% of the area covered in 1940. Tree basal cover was negatively associated with live sawgrass and positively related to red maple seedling density, but not associated with dead sawgrass tussocks. Sawgrass was positively correlated with the second axis of a non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination on understory plant assemblage, while red maple seedlings and several species associated with disturbed areas were significantly negatively correlated with this axis. Another nine plant species were positively correlated with the first axis, while Osmunda cinnamomea (cinnamon fern) was negatively associated with it. We suggest that woody species are continuing to colonize what is left of the sawgrass marsh. Without intervention (e.g., restoring hydrologic flow and fire), the sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense Crantz) area within the marsh will continue being replaced by woody and exotic species

The Disproportionate Impact of COVID-19 among Undocumented Immigrants and Racial Minorities in the US

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has had an unprecedented effect, especially among under-resourced minority communities. Surveillance of those at high risk is critical for preventing and controlling the pandemic. We must better understand the relationships between COVID-19-related cases or deaths and characteristics in our most vulnerable population that put them at risk to target COVID-19 prevention and management efforts. Population characteristics strongly related to United States (US) county-level data on COVID-19 cases and deaths during all stages of the pandemic were identified from the onset of the epidemic and included county-level socio-demographic and comorbidities data, as well as daily meteorological modeled observation data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the NARR high spatial resolution model to assess the environment. Advanced machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify outbreaks (geographic clusters of COVID-19) and included spatiotemporal risk factors and COVID-19 vaccination efforts, especially among vulnerable and underserved communities. COVID-19 outcomes were found to be negatively associated with the number of people vaccinated and positively associated with age, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and the minority population. There was also a strong positive correlation between unauthorized immigrants and the prevalence of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Meteorological variables were also investigated, but correlations with COVID-19 were relatively weak. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact across the US population among vulnerable and minority communities. Findings also emphasize the importance of vaccinations and tailored public health initiatives (e.g., mask mandates, vaccination) to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and the number of COVID-19 related deaths across all populations.</jats:p