Including debris cover effects in a distributed model of glacier ablation

Distributed glacier melt models generally assume that the glacier surface consists of bare exposed ice and snow. In reality, many glaciers are wholly or partially covered in layers of debris that tend to suppress ablation rates. In this paper, an existing physically based point model for the ablation of debris-covered ice is incorporated in a distributed melt model and applied to Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland, which has three large patches of debris cover on its surface. The model is based on a 10 m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the area; each glacier pixel in the DEM is defined as either bare or debris-covered ice, and may be covered in snow that must be melted off before ice ablation is assumed to occur. Each debris-covered pixel is assigned a debris thickness value using probability distributions based on over 1000 manual thickness measurements. Locally observed meteorological data are used to run energy balance calculations in every pixel, using an approach suitable for snow, bare ice or debris-covered ice as appropriate. The use of the debris model significantly reduces the total ablation in the debris-covered areas, however the precise reduction is sensitive to the temperature extrapolation used in the model distribution because air near the debris surface tends to be slightly warmer than over bare ice. Overall results suggest that the debris patches, which cover 10% of the glacierized area, reduce total runoff from the glacierized part of the basin by up to 7%

Doing research with children and young people who do not use speech for communication

Despite emphasis in policy on participation of disabled children, we still know relatively little about how to obtain the views of disabled children with significant communication impairment and their views are often overlooked in planning and service provision. This article describes how the views of children who do not use speech were accessed in research aiming to identify disabled children and young people's priorities regarding outcomes of social care and support services. The main challenge was to develop a method that was reliable, non-threatening, enjoyable and relevant to individual children, as well as enabling children to think beyond their everyday life and express what they aspire to

A Distributed Energy-balance Melt Model of an Alpine Debris-covered Glacier

Distributed energy-balance melt models have rarely been applied to glaciers with extensive supraglacial debris cover. This paper describes the development of a distributed melt model and its application to the debris-covered Miage glacier, western Italian Alps, over two summer seasons. Sub-debris melt rates are calculated using an existing debris energy-balance model (DEB-Model), and melt rates for clean ice, snow and partially debris-covered ice are calculated using standard energy-balance equations. Simulated sub-debris melt rates compare well to ablation stake observations. Melt rates are highest, and most sensitive to air temperature, on areas of dirty, crevassed ice on the middle glacier. Here melt rates are highly spatially variable because the debris thickness and surface type varies markedly. Melt rates are lowest, and least sensitive to air temperature, beneath the thickest debris on the lower glacier. Debris delays and attenuates the melt signal compared to clean ice, with peak melt occurring later in the day with increasing debris thickness. The continuously debris-covered zone consistently provides ∼30% of total melt throughout the ablation season, with the proportion increasing during cold weather. Sensitivity experiments show that an increase in debris thickness of 0.035 m would offset 1°C of atmospheric warming

The Epidemiology of First-Episode Psychosis in Early Intervention in Psychosis Services: Findings From the Social Epidemiology of Psychoses in East Anglia [SEPEA] Study

OBJECTIVE: Few studies have characterized the epidemiology of first-episode psychoses in rural or urban settings since the introduction of early intervention psychosis services. To address this, the authors conducted a naturalistic cohort study in England, where such services are well established. METHOD: All new first-episode psychosis cases, 16-35 years old, presenting to early intervention psychosis services in the East of England were identified during 2 million person-years follow-up. Presence of ICD-10 F10-33 psychotic disorder was confirmed using OPCRIT [operational criteria for psychotic illness]. Incidence rate ratios were estimated following multivariable Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, neighborhood-level deprivation, and population density. RESULTS: Of 1,005 referrals, 687 participants (68.4%) fulfilled epidemiological and diagnostic criteria for first-episode psychosis (34.0 new cases per 100,000 person-years; 95% CI=31.5-36.6). Median age at referral was similar for men (22.5 years; interquartile range: 19.5-26.7) and women (23.4 years; interquartile range: 19.5-29.1); incidence rates were highest for men and women before 20 years of age. Rates increased for ethnic minority groups (incidence rate ratio: 1.4; 95% CI=1.1-1.6), as well as with lower socioeconomic status (incidence rate ratio: 1.3; 95% CI=1.2-1.4) and in more urban (incidence rate ratio: 1.4;95%CI=1.0-1.8) and deprived (incidence rate ratio: 2.1; 95% CI=1.3-3.3) neighborhoods, after adjustment for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Pronounced variation in psychosis incidence, peaking before 20 years old, exists in populations served by early intervention psychosis services. Excess rates were restricted to urban and deprived communities, suggesting that a threshold of socioenvironmental adversity may be necessary to increase incidence. This robust epidemiology can inform service development in various settings about likely population-level need

Reconstruction and regional significance of the Coire Breac palaeoglacier, Glen Esk, eastern Grampian Highlands, Scotland

We present a glaciological and climatic reconstruction of a former glacier in Coire Breac, an isolated cirque within the Eastern Grampian plateau of Scotland, 5 km from the Highland edge. Published glacier reconstructions of presumed Younger Dryas-age glaciers in this area show that equilibrium line altitudes decreased steeply towards the east coast, implying a maritime glacial environment. Extrapolation of the ELA trend surface implies that glaciers should have existed in suitable locations on the plateau, a landscape little modified by glaciation. In Coire Breac, a 0.35 km2 cirque glacier existed with an equilibrium line altitude of 487 ± 15 m above present sea level. The equilibrium line altitude matches closely the extrapolated regional equilibriumline altitude trend surface for Younger Dryas Stadial glaciers. The mean glacier thickness of 24 m gives an ice volume of 7.8 x 106 m3, and a maximum basal shear stress of c. 100 kPa-1. Ablation gradient was c. -0.0055 m m-1, with a mean July temperature at the equilibrium line altitude of c. 5.1°C. The reconstruction implies an arctic maritime climate of low precipitation with local accumulation enhanced by blown snow, which may explain the absence of other contemporary glaciers nearby. Reconstructed ice flow lines show zones of flow concentration around the lower ice margin which help to explain the distribution of depositional facies associated with a former debris cover which may have delayed eventual glacier retreat. No moraines in the area have been dated, so palaeoclimatic interpretations remain provisional, and a pre-Lateglacial Interstadial age cannot be ruled out

Ethnic Minority Status, Age-at-Immigration and Psychosis Risk in Rural Environments: Evidence From the SEPEA Study.

Objective: Several ethnic minority groups experience elevated rates of first-episode psychosis (FEP), but most studies have been conducted in urban settings. We investigated whether incidence varied by ethnicity, generation status, and age-at-immigration in a diverse, mixed rural, and urban setting. Method: We identified 687 people, 16-35 years, with an ICD-10 diagnosis of FEP, presenting to Early Intervention Psychosis services in the East of England over 2 million person-years. We used multilevel Poisson regression to examine incidence variation by ethnicity, rural-urban setting, generation status, and age-at-immigration, adjusting for several confounders including age, sex, socioeconomic status, population density, and deprivation. Results: People of black African (incidence rate ratio: 4.06; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.63-6.25), black Caribbean (4.63; 95% CI: 2.38-8.98) and Pakistani (2.31; 95% CI: 1.35-3.94) origins were at greatest FEP risk relative to the white British population, after multivariable adjustment. Non-British white migrants were not at increased FEP risk (1.00; 95% CI: 0.77-1.32). These patterns were independently present in rural and urban settings. For first-generation migrants, migration during childhood conferred greatest risk of psychotic disorders (2.20; 95% CI: 1.33-3.62). Conclusions: Elevated psychosis risk in several visible minority groups could not be explained by differences in postmigratory socioeconomic disadvantage. These patterns were observed across rural and urban areas of our catchment, suggesting that elevated psychosis risk for some ethnic minority groups is not a result of selection processes influencing rural-urban living. Timing of exposure to migration during childhood, an important social and neurodevelopmental window, may also elevate risk

Metagenomic analyses of bacteria on human hairs: a qualitative assessment for applications in forensic science

Background: Mammalian hairs are one of the most ubiquitous types of trace evidence collected in the course of forensic investigations. However, hairs that are naturally shed or that lack roots are problematic substrates for DNA profiling; these hair types often contain insufficient nuclear DNA to yield short tandem repeat (STR) profiles. Whilst there have been a number of initial investigations evaluating the value of metagenomics analyses for forensic applications (e.g. examination of computer keyboards), there have been no metagenomic evaluations of human hairs—a substrate commonly encountered during forensic practice. This present study attempts to address thisforensic capability gap, by conducting a qualitative assessment into the applicability of metagenomic analyses of human scalp and pubic hair.Results: Forty-two DNA extracts obtained from human scalp and pubic hairs generated a total of 79,766 reads, yielding 39,814 reads post control and abundance filtering. The results revealed the presence of unique combinations of microbial taxa that can enable discrimination between individuals and signature taxa indigenous to female pubic hairs. Microbial data from a single co-habiting couple added an extra dimension to the study by suggesting that metagenomic analyses might be of evidentiary value in sexual assault cases when other associative evidence is not present.Conclusions: Of all the data generated in this study, the next-generation sequencing (NGS) data generated from pubic hair held the most potential for forensic applications. Metagenomic analyses of human hairs may provide independent data to augment other forensic results and possibly provide association between victims of sexual assault and offender when other associative evidence is absent. Based on results garnered in the present study, we believe that with further development, bacterial profiling of hair will become a valuable addition to the forensic toolkit

The Crystal Ball Data Acquisition System

The data acquisition system for the Crystal Ball project at SLAC is described. A PDP-11/t55 using RSX-11M connected to the SLAC Triplex is the basis of the system. A "physics pipeline" allows physicists to write their own equipment-monitoring or physics tasks which require event sampling. As well, an interactive analysis package (MULTI) is in the pipeline. Histogram collection and display on the PDP are implemented using the Triplex histogramming package. Various interactive event displays are also implemented

Temporal patterns in the recorded annual incidence of common mental disorders over two decades in the United Kingdom: a primary care cohort study

BACKGROUND: Common mental disorders (CMDs) including depression, anxiety, and stress are very common, but it is unclear whether the last decades of social, economic, and political change have impacted incidence of CMD. This study explored temporal trends in the recorded incidence of CMD in the United Kingdom. METHODS: We used data from general practices in the United Kingdom (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to estimate the annual recorded incidence of CMD for 2000-2020, including symptoms, diagnosis, or pharmaceutical treatment. Trends were explored by sex, age, ethnicity, region, deprivation, and comorbidity. RESULTS: We included 29 480 164 individuals who were followed up for 12.5 years on average (s.d. = 6.4 years). The recorded incidence of CMD episodes was 55.9 per 1000 person-years in 2000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 55.8-56.1], increasing to 79.6 per 1000 person-years in 2019 (95% CI 79.5-79.8). Females had higher recorded incidence rates, as did those living in more deprived areas. We observed striking patterns by age over time, with rates in ages 16-24 increasing from 40.2 per 1000 in 2000 (95% CI 39.8-40.5), to 107.8 per 1000 in 2019 (95% CI 107.0-108.6). In contrast, the rates in those aged ≥55 years decreased since 2014. There were differing patterns of incidence by ethnic group, with a steeper increase in Asian, Black, and mixed groups in recent years. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the incidence of recorded CMD in the UK general practice increased between 2000 and 2019 with a small decrease in 2020. The overall trends obscured important differences across population subgroups, which may have implications for prevention

Ethnic inequalities and pathways to care in psychosis in England: a systematic review and meta-analysis

© The Author(s). 2018Background: As part of a national programme to tackle ethnic inequalities, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of research on ethnic inequalities in pathways to care for adults with psychosis living in England and/or Wales. Methods: Nine databases were searched from inception to 03.07.17 for previous systematic reviews, including forward and backward citation tracking and a PROSPERO search to identify ongoing reviews. We then carried forward relevant primary studies from included reviews (with the latest meta-analyses reporting on research up to 2012), supplemented by a search on 18.10.17 in MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and CINAHL for primary studies between 2012 and 2017 that had not been covered by previous meta-analyses. Results: Forty studies, all conducted in England, were included for our updated meta-analyses on pathways to care. Relative to the White reference group, elevated rates of civil detentions were found for Black Caribbean (OR = 3.43, 95% CI = 2.68 to 4.40, n = 18), Black African (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.40 to 4.02, n = 6), and South Asian patients (OR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.12, n = 10). Analyses of each Mental Health Act section revealed significantly higher rates for Black people under (civil) Section 2 (OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.11 to 2.11, n = 3). Rates in repeat admissions were significantly higher than in first admission for South Asian patients (between-group difference p < 0.01). Some ethnic groups had more police contact (Black African OR = 3.60, 95% CI = 2.15 to 6.05, n = 2; Black Caribbean OR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.88 to 3.72, n = 8) and criminal justice system involvement (Black Caribbean OR = 2.76, 95% CI = 2.02 to 3.78, n = 5; Black African OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.32 to 2.78, n = 3). The White Other patients also showed greater police and criminal justice system involvement than White British patients (OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.15, n = 4). General practitioner involvement was less likely for Black than the White reference group. No significant variations over time were found across all the main outcomes. Conclusions: Our updated meta-analyses reveal persisting but not significantly worsening patterns of ethnic inequalities in pathways to psychiatric care, particularly affecting Black groups. This provides a comprehensive evidence base from which to inform policy and practice amidst a prospective Mental Health Act reform. Trial registration: CRD42017071663Peer reviewedFinal Published versio