On the Computational Complexity of Measuring Global Stability of Banking Networks

Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current and past decade has shown that one important cause of instability in global markets is the so-called financial contagion, namely the spreading of instabilities or failures of individual components of the network to other, perhaps healthier, components. This leads to a natural question of whether the regulatory authorities could have predicted and perhaps mitigated the current economic crisis by effective computations of some stability measure of the banking networks. Motivated by such observations, we consider the problem of defining and evaluating stabilities of both homogeneous and heterogeneous banking networks against propagation of synchronous idiosyncratic shocks given to a subset of banks. We formalize the homogeneous banking network model of Nier et al. and its corresponding heterogeneous version, formalize the synchronous shock propagation procedures, define two appropriate stability measures and investigate the computational complexities of evaluating these measures for various network topologies and parameters of interest. Our results and proofs also shed some light on the properties of topologies and parameters of the network that may lead to higher or lower stabilities.Comment: to appear in Algorithmic

2003 Manifesto on the California Electricity Crisis

The authors, an ad-hocgroup of professionals with experience in regulatory and energy economics, share a common concern with the continuing turmoil facing the electricity industry ("the industry") in California. Most ofthe authorsendorsed the first California Electricity Manifesto issued on January 25, 2001. Almost two years have passed since that first Manifesto. While wholesale electric prices have moderated and California no longer faces the risk of blackouts, in many ways the industry is in worse shape now than it was at the start of 2001. As a result, the group of signatories continues to have a deep concern with the conflicting policy directions being pursued for the industry at both the State and Federal levels of government and the impact the uncertainties associated with these conflicting policies will have, long term, on the economy of California. Theauthorshave once again convened under the auspices of the Institute of Management, Innovation and Organization at the University of California, Berkeley, to put forward ourtheir ideas on a basic set of necessary policies to move the industry forward for the benefit of all Californians and the nation. The authors point out that theydo not pretend to be "representative." They do bring, however, a very diverse range of backgrounds and expertise.Technology and Industry, Regulatory Reform

Screening for brain aneurysm in the Familial Intracranial Aneurysm study: frequency and predictors of lesion detection

Object Approximately 20% of patients with an intracranial saccular aneurysm report a family history of intracranial aneurysm (IA) or subarachnoid hemorrhage. A better understanding of predictors of aneurysm detection in familial IA may allow more targeted aneurysm screening strategies. Methods The Familial Intracranial Aneurysm (FIA) study is a multicenter study, in which the primary objective is to define the susceptibility genes related to the formation of IA. First-degree relatives (FDRs) of those affected with IA are offered screening with magnetic resonance (MR) angiography if they were previously unaffected, are ≥ 30 years of age, and have a history of smoking and/or hypertension. Independent predictors of aneurysm detection on MR angiography were determined using the generalized estimating equation version of logistic regression. Results Among the first 303 patients screened with MR angiography, 58 (19.1%) had at least 1 IA, including 24% of women and 11.7% of men. Ten (17.2%) of 58 affected patients had multiple aneurysms. Independent predictors of aneurysm detection included female sex (odds ratio [OR] 2.46, p = 0.001), pack-years of cigarette smoking (OR 3.24 for 20 pack-years of cigarette smoking compared with never having smoked, p < 0.001), and duration of hypertension (OR 1.26 comparing those with 10 years of hypertension to those with no hypertension, p = 0.006). Conclusions In the FIA study, among the affected patients’ FDRs who are > 30 years of age, those who are women or who have a history of smoking or hypertension are at increased risk of suffering an IA and should be strongly considered for screening

Midstream value creation in social marketing

The purpose of this study is to develop improved understanding of how value is created at the midstream (meso) level in a collaborative smokefree homes and cars social marketing programme. The study adopts a qualitative approach including interviews and observation. The findings show that the co-creative organisational model adopted for the Smokefree programme affords access to resources and capabilities of midstream actors and provides opportunities for reshaping and mobilising existing value networks. The focal organisation has a key role in coordinating, connecting actors and providing resources to facilitate value co-creation at the network level. The study illustrates that the service interaction allowed for customer centred cues for action which took into account their context and the existence/lack of resources for value creation. The implications of this study are discussed, in particular in terms of the role of focal organisations in managing value networks, the social context, configurational fit and resources of actors involved in community based social marketing and the need for policies and practices to provide health professionals with role support for health promotion

An observational study of patient characteristics associated with the mode of admission to acute stroke services in North East, England

Objective Effective provision of urgent stroke care relies upon admission to hospital by emergency ambulance and may involve pre-hospital redirection. The proportion and characteristics of patients who do not arrive by emergency ambulance and their impact on service efficiency is unclear. To assist in the planning of regional stroke services we examined the volume, characteristics and prognosis of patients according to the mode of presentation to local services. Study design and setting A prospective regional database of consecutive acute stroke admissions was conducted in North East, England between 01/09/10-30/09/11. Case ascertainment and transport mode were checked against hospital coding and ambulance dispatch databases. Results Twelve acute stroke units contributed data for a mean of 10.7 months. 2792/3131 (89%) patients received a diagnosis of stroke within 24 hours of admission: 2002 arrivals by emergency ambulance; 538 by private transport or non-emergency ambulance; 252 unknown mode. Emergency ambulance patients were older (76 vs 69 years), more likely to be from institutional care (10% vs 1%) and experiencing total anterior circulation symptoms (27% vs 6%). Thrombolysis treatment was commoner following emergency admission (11% vs 4%). However patients attending without emergency ambulance had lower inpatient mortality (2% vs 18%), a lower rate of institutionalisation (1% vs 6%) and less need for daily carers (7% vs 16%). 149/155 (96%) of highly dependent patients were admitted by emergency ambulance, but none received thrombolysis. Conclusion Presentations of new stroke without emergency ambulance involvement were not unusual but were associated with a better outcome due to younger age, milder neurological impairment and lower levels of pre-stroke dependency. Most patients with a high level of pre-stroke dependency arrived by emergency ambulance but did not receive thrombolysis. It is important to be aware of easily identifiable demographic groups that differ in their potential to gain from different service configurations

Interspecific competition and vertical niche partitioning in Fiji’s forest birds

Charles Darwin proposed his ‘principle of divergence’ to account for changes in traits that could promote speciation and coexistence of diverse forms through occupation of different niches to reduce interspecific competition. We explore interspecific foraging behaviour overlap in Fiji’s forest birds, and address two main questions: (1) Is there vertical stratification of foraging behavior? and (2) Is there evidence of interspecific competition driving the differences in foraging behaviour? We explore these questions across three foraging guilds, nectarivores (three species), insectivores (two species), and omnivores (two species), and find vertical portioning of foraging in each group. To investigate the effect of interspecific competition, we compared foraging heights of the Orange-breasted Myzomela (Myzomela jugularis) honeyeater on Viti Levu Island (where it coexists with two other honeyeater species) and Leleuvia Island (no other honeyeater species). On the main island Viti Levu, we found evidence for vertical niche partitioning within each foraging guild. On Leleuvia, with the ‘one-species only foraging guild’, Orange-breasted Myzomela occupied broader vertical foraging niche than on Viti Levu with two other competitor honeyeater species. This result supports the idea that vertical foraging height can be shaped by interspecific competition. The findings of this study support Darwin’s principle of divergence in Fiji’s forest birds for every foraging guild measured and adds to our understanding of the significance of interspecific competition and niche divergence for patterns of ecological speciation on islands

Criticality Analysis of Activity Networks under Interval Uncertainty

Dedicated to the memory of Professor Stefan Chanas - The extended abstract version of this paper has appeared in Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming (CP2005) ("Interval Analysis in Scheduling", Fortin et al. 2005)International audienceThis paper reconsiders the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) scheduling problem when information about task duration is incomplete. We model uncertainty on task durations by intervals. With this problem formulation, our goal is to assert possible and necessary criticality of the different tasks and to compute their possible earliest starting dates, latest starting dates, and floats. This paper combines various results and provides a complete solution to the problem. We present the complexity results of all considered subproblems and efficient algorithms to solve them

Competitive Benchmarking: An IS Research Approach to Address Wicked Problems with Big Data and Analytics

Wicked problems like sustainable energy and financial market stability are societal challenges that arise from complex socio-technical systems in which numerous social, economic, political, and technical factors interact. Understanding and mitigating them requires research methods that scale beyond the traditional areas of inquiry of Information Systems (IS) “individuals, organizations, and markets” and that deliver solutions in addition to insights. We describe an approach to address these challenges through Competitive Benchmarking (CB), a novel research method that helps interdisciplinary research communities to tackle complex challenges of societal scale by using different types of data from a variety of sources such as usage data from customers, production patterns from producers, public policy and regulatory constraints, etc. for a given instantiation. Further, the CB platform generates data that can be used to improve operational strategies and judge the effectiveness of regulatory regimes and policies. We describe our experience applying CB to the sustainable energy challenge in the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) in which more than a dozen research groups from around the world jointly devise, benchmark, and improve IS-based solutions

Baseline and stress-induced blood properties of male and female Darwin’s small ground finch (Geospiza fuliginosa) of the Galapagos Islands

© 2017 Elsevier. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Birds are renowned for exhibiting marked sex-specific differences in activity levels and reproductive investment during the breeding season, potentially impacting circulating blood parameters associated with stress and energetics. Males of many passerines often do not incubate, but they experience direct exposure to intruder threat and exhibit aggressive behaviour during the nesting phase in order to defend territories against competing males and predators. Nesting females often have long bouts of inactivity during incubation, but they must remain vigilant of the risks posed by predators and conspecific intruders approaching the nest. Here, we use 33 free-living male (n = 16) and female (n = 17) Darwin's small ground finches (Geospiza fuliginosa) on Floreana Island (Galapagos Archipelago) to better understand how sex-specific roles during the reproductive period impact baseline and stress-induced levels of plasma corticosterone (CORT), blood glucose and haematocrit. Specifically, we hypothesise that males are characterised by higher baseline values given their direct and relatively frequent exposure to intruder threat, but that a standardised stress event (capture and holding) overrides any sex-specific differences. In contrast with expectations, baseline levels of all blood parameters were similar between sexes (13.4 ± 1.9 ng ml−1 for CORT, 13.7 ± 0.4 mmol l−1 for glucose, 58.3 ± 0.8% for haematocrit). Interestingly, females with higher body condition had lower baseline haematocrit. All blood parameters changed with time since capture (range 1.2–41.3 min) in both sexes, whereby CORT increased linearly, haematocrit decreased linearly, and glucose increased to a peak at ∼20 min post-capture and declined to baseline levels thereafter. Our results do not support the hypothesis that sex-specific roles during the reproductive period translate to differences in blood parameters associated with stress and energetics, but we found some evidence that blood oxygen transport capacity may decline as finches increase in body condition