Timber Felling Time, Costs, and Productivity in Arkansas

Sixteen stands were harvested by either clearcut, shelterwood, group selection, or single-tree selection methods. Harvest productivity was evaluated in four consecutive years (1991 through 1994). Three of the stands had uneven-aged structure, the other 13 were typical, mature, even-aged stands. Harvest intensity (proportion of basal area removed) ranged from 0.27 to 1.00. Logging contractors used one to three sawyers with production chain saws to fell trees on all 16 tracts. There was no statistical difference in production rate between sawyers on the same stand. Harvested sites were similar in slope, average diameter at breast height (DBH) and pre-harvest number of stems by two inch diameter class. Total felling time (including walk, acquire, fell, and limb-top times) was inversely related to harvesting intensity and directly related to stem DBH. Factors affecting total felling time (in decreasing order of importance) were DBH of harvested stems, intertree distance, and harvest intensity. Felling productivity (100 cubic feet/hour) was found to be highest under high intensity harvests oflarge trees and lowest under low intensity harvests of small trees. Productivity was more sensitive to stem diameter than harvest intensity. Felling cost was shown to have an inverse relationship with felling productivity

Groups without cultured representatives dominate eukaryotic picophytoplankton in the oligotrophic South East Pacific Ocean

Background: Photosynthetic picoeukaryotes (PPE) with a cell size less than 3 µm play a critical role in oceanic primary production. In recent years, the composition of marine picoeukaryote communities has been intensively investigated by molecular approaches, but their photosynthetic fraction remains poorly characterized. This is largely because the classical approach that relies on constructing 18S rRNA gene clone libraries from filtered seawater samples using universal eukaryotic primers is heavily biased toward heterotrophs, especially alveolates and stramenopiles, despite the fact that autotrophic cells in general outnumber heterotrophic ones in the euphotic zone. Methodology/Principal Findings: In order to better assess the composition of the eukaryotic picophytoplankton in the South East Pacific Ocean, encompassing the most oligotrophic oceanic regions on earth, we used a novel approach based on flow cytometry sorting followed by construction of 18S rRNA gene clone libraries. This strategy dramatically increased the recovery of sequences from putative autotrophic groups. The composition of the PPE community appeared highly variable both vertically down the water column and horizontally across the South East Pacific Ocean. In the central gyre, uncultivated lineages dominated: a recently discovered clade of Prasinophyceae (IX), clades of marine Chrysophyceae and Haptophyta, the latter division containing a potentially new class besides Prymnesiophyceae and Pavlophyceae. In contrast, on the edge of the gyre and in the coastal Chilean upwelling, groups with cultivated representatives (Prasinophyceae clade VII and Mamiellales) dominated. Conclusions/Significance: Our data demonstrate that a very large fraction of the eukaryotic picophytoplankton still escapes cultivation. The use of flow cytometry sorting should prove very useful to better characterize specific plankton populations by molecular approaches such as gene cloning or metagenomics, and also to obtain into culture strains representative of these novel groups

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Too Good to Be True: Rhesus Monkeys React Negatively to Better-than-Expected Offers

To succeed in a dynamically changing world, animals need to predict their environments. Humans, in fact, exhibit such a strong desire for consistency that one of the most well-established findings in social psychology is the effort people make to maintain consistency among their beliefs, attitudes, and behavior. However, displeasure with unpredictability leads to a potential paradox, because a positive outcome that exceeds one’s expectations often leads to increased subjective value and positive affect, not the opposite. We tested the hypothesis that two evolutionarily-conserved evaluation processes underlie goal-directed behavior: (1) consistency, concerned with prediction errors, and (2) valuation, concerned with outcome utility. Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) viewed a food item and then were offered an identical, better, or worse food, which they could accept or reject. The monkeys ultimately accepted all offers, attesting to the influence of the valuation process. However, they were slower to accept the unexpected offers, and they exhibited aversive reactions, especially to the better-than-expected offers, repeatedly turning their heads and looking away before accepting the food item. Our findings (a) provide evidence for two separable evaluation processes in primates, consistency and value assessment, (b) reveal a direct relationship between consistency assessment and emotional processes, and (c) show that our wariness with events that are much better than expected is shared with other social primates

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks

The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city); population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods). Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible

Microbial community succession on developing lesions on human enamel

Dental caries is one of the most common diseases in the world. However, our understanding of how the microbial community composition changes in vivo as caries develops is lacking.An in vivo model was used in a longitudinal cohort study to investigate shifts in the microbial community composition associated with the development of enamel caries.White spot lesions were generated in vivo on human teeth predetermined to be extracted for orthodontic reasons. The bacterial microbiota on sound enamel and on developing carious lesions were identified using the Human Oral Microbe Identification Microarray (HOMIM), which permits the detection of about 300 of the approximate 600 predominant bacterial species in the oral cavity.After only seven weeks, 75% of targeted teeth developed white spot lesions (8 individuals, 16 teeth). The microbial community composition of the plaque over white spot lesions differed significantly as compared to sound enamel. Twenty-five bacterial taxa, including Streptococcus mutans, Atopobium parvulum, Dialister invisus, and species of Prevotella and Scardovia, were significantly associated with initial enamel lesions. In contrast, 14 bacterial taxa, including species of Fusobacterium, Campylobacter, Kingella, and Capnocytophaga, were significantly associated with sound enamel.The bacterial community composition associated with the progression of enamel lesions is specific and much more complex than previously believed. This investigation represents one of the first longitudinally-derived studies for caries progression and supports microbial data from previous cross-sectional studies on the development of the disease. Thus, the in vivo experiments of generating lesions on teeth destined for extraction in conjunction with HOMIM analyses represent a valid model to study succession of supragingival microbial communities associated with caries development and to study efficacy of prophylactic and restorative treatments

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health

Contrasting Microbial Community Assembly Hypotheses: A Reconciling Tale from the Río Tinto

The Río Tinto (RT) is distinguished from other acid mine drainage systems by its natural and ancient origins. Microbial life from all three domains flourishes in this ecosystem, but bacteria dominate metabolic processes that perpetuate environmental extremes. While the patchy geochemistry of the RT likely influences the dynamics of bacterial populations, demonstrating which environmental variables shape microbial diversity and unveiling the mechanisms underlying observed patterns, remain major challenges in microbial ecology whose answers rely upon detailed assessments of community structures coupled with fine-scale measurements of physico-chemical parameters.By using high-throughput environmental tag sequencing we achieved saturation of richness estimators for the first time in the RT. We found that environmental factors dictate the distribution of the most abundant taxa in this system, but stochastic niche differentiation processes, such as mutation and dispersal, also contribute to observed diversity patterns.We predict that studies providing clues to the evolutionary and ecological processes underlying microbial distributions will reconcile the ongoing debate between the Baas Becking vs. Hubbell community assembly hypotheses

Longitudinal effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on visual neurodevelopment over infancy

Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) affects neurodevelopment in over 59 million individuals globally. Prior studies using dichotomous categorization of alcohol use and comorbid substance exposures provide limited knowledge of how prenatal alcohol specifically impacts early human neurodevelopment. In this longitudinal cohort study from Cape Town, South Africa, PAE is measured continuously-characterizing timing, dose, and drinking patterns (i.e., binge drinking). High-density electroencephalography (EEG) during a visual-evoked potential (VEP) task was collected from infants aged 8 to 52 weeks with prenatal exposure exclusively to alcohol and matched on sociodemographic factors to infants with no substance exposure in utero. First trimester alcohol exposure related to altered timing of the P1 VEP component over the first 6 months postnatally, and first trimester binge drinking exposure altered timing of the P1 VEP components such that increased exposure was associated with longer VEP latencies while increasing age was related to shorter VEP latencies (n = 108). These results suggest alcohol exposure in the first trimester may alter visual neurodevelopmental timing in early infancy. Exploratory individual-difference analysis across infants with and without PAE tested the relation between VEP latencies and myelination for a subsample of infants with usable magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) T1w and T2w scans collected at the same time point as EEG (n = 47). Decreased MRI T1w/T2w ratios (an indicator of myelin) in the primary visual cortex (n = 47) were linked to longer P1 VEP latencies. Results from these two sets of analyses suggest that prenatal alcohol and postnatal myelination may both separately impact VEP latency over infancy