Beliefs as Self-Sustaining Networks: Drawing Parallels Between Networks of Ecosystems and Adults’ Predictions

In this paper, we argue that beliefs share common properties with the self-sustaining networks of complex systems. Matching experiences are said to couple with each other into a mutually reinforcing network. The goal of the current paper is to spell out and develop these ideas, using our understanding of ecosystems as a guide. In Part 1 of the paper, we provide theoretical considerations relevant to this new conceptualization of beliefs, including the theoretical overlap between energy and meaning. In Part 2, we discuss the implications of this new conceptualization on our understanding of belief emergence and belief change. Finally, in Part 3, we provide an analytical mapping between beliefs and the self-sustaining networks of ecosystems, namely by applying to behavioral data a measure developed for ecosystem networks. Specifically, average accuracies were subjected to analyses of uncertainty (H) and average mutual information (AMI). The ratio between these two values yields degree of order, a measure of how organized the self-sustained network is. Degree of order was tracked over time and compared to the amount of explained variance returned by a categorical nonlinear principal components analysis (CATPCA). Finding high correspondence between the two measures of order, together with the theoretical groundwork discussed in Parts 1 and 2, lends preliminary validity to our theory that beliefs have important similarities to the structural characteristics of self-sustaining networks

Long-range correlations and patterns of recurrence in children and adults' attention to hierarchical displays

In order to make sense of a scene, a person must pay attention to several levels of nested order, ranging from the most differentiated details of the display to the integrated whole. In adults, research shows that the processes of integration and differentiation have the signature of self-organization. Does the same hold for children? The current study addresses this question with children between 6 and 9 years of age, using two tasks that require attention to hierarchical displays. A group of adults were tested as well, for control purposes. To get at the question of self-organization, reaction time data were submitted to a detrended fluctuation analysis and a recurrence quantification analysis. Hurst exponents shows a long-range correlations (1/f noise), and recurrence measures (percent determinism, maximum line, entropy, and trend), show a deterministic structure of variability being characteristic of self-organizing systems. Findings are discussed in terms of organism-environment coupling that gives rise to fluid attention to hierarchical displays

Minigap, Parity Effect and Persistent Currents in SNS Nanorings

We have evaluated a proximity-induced minigap in the density of states (DOS) of SNS junctions and SNS nanorings at an arbitrary concentration of non-magnetic impurities. We have demonstrated that an isotropic energy minigap in the electron spectrum opens up already at arbitrarily weak disorder, while angle resolved DOS at higher energies can remain strongly anisotropic. The minigap value $\epsilon_g$ can be tuned by passing a supercurrent through an SNS junction or by applying a magnetic flux $\Phi$ to an SNS ring. A non-monotonous dependence of $\epsilon_g$ on $\Phi$ has been found at weak disorder. We have also studied persistent currents in isolated SNS nanorings. For odd number of electrons in the ring we have found a non-trivial current-phase (current-flux) relation which -- at relatively high disorder -- may lead to a $\pi$-junction state and spontaneous currents in the ground state of the system.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure

Constraints on Mars Aphelion Cloud Belt Phase Function and Ice Crystal Geometries

This study constrains the lower bound of the scattering phase function of Martian water ice clouds (WICs) through the implementation of a new observation aboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The Phase Function Sky Survey (PFSS) was a multiple pointing all-sky observation taken with the navigation cameras (Navcam) aboard MSL. The PFSS was executed 35 times during the Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) season of Mars Year 34 over a solar longitude range of L_s=61.4{\deg}-156.5{\deg}. Twenty observations occurred in the morning hours between 06:00 and 09:30 LTST, and 15 runs occurred in the evening hours between 14:30 and 18:00 LTST, with an operationally required 2.5 hour gap on either side of local noon due the sun being located near zenith. The resultant WIC phase function was derived over an observed scattering angle range of 18.3{\deg} to 152.61{\deg}, normalized, and compared with 9 modeled phase functions: seven ice crystal habits and two Martian WIC phase functions currently being implemented in models. Through statistical chi-squared probability tests, the five most probable ice crystal geometries observed in the ACB WICs were aggregates, hexagonal solid columns, hollow columns, plates, and bullet rosettes with p-values greater than or equal to 0.60, 0.57,0.56,0.56, and 0.55, respectively. Droxtals and spheres had p-values of 0.35, and 0.2, making them less probable components of Martian WICs, but still statistically possible ones. Having a better understanding of the ice crystal habit and phase function of Martian water ice clouds directly benefits Martian climate models which currently assume spherical and cylindrical particles.Comment: Accepted Manuscript by Planetary and Space Scienc

Physical therapy and exercise interventions in Huntington's disease: a mixed methods systematic review protocol

Review question/objective: : The review seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of physical therapy and exercise interventions in Huntington's disease (HD). The review question is: What is the effectiveness of physiotherapy and therapeutic exercise interventions in people with HD, and what are patients’, families’ and caregivers’ perceptions of these interventions? Review question/objective: The specific objectives are: Review question/objective: This mixed methods review seeks to develop an aggregated synthesis of quantitative, qualitative and narrative systematic reviews on physiotherapy and exercise interventions in HD, in an attempt to derive conclusions and recommendations useful for clinical practice and policy decision-making

Spatial distribution of podoconiosis in relation to environmental factors in Ethiopia: a historical review

BACKGROUND An up-to-date and reliable map of podoconiosis is needed to design geographically targeted and cost-effective intervention in Ethiopia. Identifying the ecological correlates of the distribution of podoconiosis is the first step for distribution and risk maps. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and ecological correlates of podoconiosis using historical and contemporary survey data. METHODS Data on the observed prevalence of podoconiosis were abstracted from published and unpublished literature into a standardized database, according to strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. In total, 10 studies conducted between 1969 and 2012 were included, and data were available for 401,674 individuals older than 15 years of age from 229 locations. A range of high resolution environmental factors were investigated to determine their association with podoconiosis prevalence, using logistic regression. RESULTS The prevalence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia was estimated at 3.4% (95% CI 3.3%-3.4%) with marked regional variation. We identified significant associations between mean annual Land Surface Temperature (LST), mean annual precipitation, topography of the land and fine soil texture and high prevalence of podoconiosis. The derived maps indicate both widespread occurrence of podoconiosis and a marked variability in prevalence of podoconiosis, with prevalence typically highest at altitudes >1500 m above sea level (masl), with >1500 mm annual rainfall and mean annual LST of 19-21°C. No (or very little) podoconiosis occurred at altitudes 24°C. CONCLUSION Podoconiosis remains a public health problem in Ethiopia over considerable areas of the country, but exhibits marked geographical variation associated in part with key environmental factors. This is work in progress and the results presented here will be refined in future work

The burden of neglected tropical diseases in Ethiopia, and opportunities for integrated control and elimination

Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of chronic parasitic diseases and related conditions that are the most common diseases among the 2·7 billion people globally living on less than US$2 per day. In response to the growing challenge of NTDs, Ethiopia is preparing to launch a NTD Master Plan. The purpose of this review is to underscore the burden of NTDs in Ethiopia, highlight the state of current interventions, and suggest ways forward. Results: This review indicates that NTDs are significant public health problems in Ethiopia. From the analysis reported here, Ethiopia stands out for having the largest number of NTD cases following Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is estimated to have the highest burden of trachoma, podoconiosis and cutaneous leishmaniasis in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the second highest burden in terms of ascariasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis, and the third highest burden of hookworm. Infections such as schistosomiasis, trichuriasis, lymphatic filariasis and rabies are also common. A third of Ethiopians are infected with ascariasis, one quarter is infected with trichuriasis and one in eight Ethiopians lives with hookworm or is infected with trachoma. However, despite these high burdens of infection, the control of most NTDs in Ethiopia is in its infancy. In terms of NTD control achievements, Ethiopia reached the leprosy elimination target of 1 case/10,000 population in 1999. No cases of human African trypanosomiasis have been reported since 1984. Guinea worm eradication is in its final phase. The Onchocerciasis Control Program has been making steady progress since 2001. A national blindness survey was conducted in 2006 and the trachoma program has kicked off in some regions. Lymphatic Filariasis, podoconiosis and rabies mapping are underway. Conclusion: Ethiopia bears a significant burden of NTDs compared to other SSA countries. To achieve success in integrated control of NTDs, integrated mapping, rapid scale up of interventions and operational research into co implementation of intervention packages will be crucial

Association between footwear use and neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has primarily focused on preventive chemotherapy and case management. Less attention has been placed on the role of ensuring access to adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene and personal preventive measures in reducing exposure to infection. Our aim was to assess whether footwear use was associated with a lower risk of selected NTDs. METHODOLOGY We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between footwear use and infection or disease for those NTDs for which the route of transmission or occurrence may be through the feet. We included Buruli ulcer, cutaneous larva migrans (CLM), leptospirosis, mycetoma, myiasis, podoconiosis, snakebite, tungiasis, and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, particularly hookworm infection and strongyloidiasis. We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and Popline databases, contacted experts, and hand-searched reference lists for eligible studies. The search was conducted in English without language, publication status, or date restrictions up to January 2014. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported a measure of the association between footwear use and the risk of each NTD. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. Descriptive study characteristics and methodological quality of the included studies were summarized. For each study outcome, both outcome and exposure data were abstracted and crude and adjusted effect estimates presented. Individual and summary odds ratio (OR) estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated as a measure of intervention effect, using random effects meta-analyses. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Among the 427 studies screened, 53 met our inclusion criteria. Footwear use was significantly associated with a lower odds of infection of Buruli ulcer (OR=0.15; 95% CI: 0.08-0.29), CLM (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.06-0.96), tungiasis (OR=0.42; 95% CI: 0.26-0.70), hookworm infection (OR=0.48; 95% CI: 0.37-0.61), any STH infection (OR=0.57; 95% CI: 0.39-0.84), strongyloidiasis (OR=0.56; 95% CI: 0.38-0.83), and leptospirosis (OR=0.59; 95% CI: 0.37-0.94). No significant association between footwear use and podoconiosis (OR=0.63; 95% CI: 0.38-1.05) was found and no data were available for mycetoma, myiasis, and snakebite. The main limitations were evidence of heterogeneity and poor study quality inherent to the observational studies included. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that footwear use was associated with a lower odds of several different NTDs. Access to footwear should be prioritized alongside existing NTD interventions to ensure a lasting reduction of multiple NTDs and to accelerate their control and elimination. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews CRD42012003338

Options for improving water use efficiency under worsening scarcity: Evidence from the Middle Olifants Sub-Basin in South Africa

Following the political changes in the early 1990s, the South African government introduced a comprehensive reform process for the water sector with the goal of achieving an enhanced and more equitable water management system. This paper analyses the existing water allocation situations and applies a non-linear optimisation model to investigate the optimal intraand inter-regional allocation regimes in the Middle Olifants sub-basin of South Africa. Economic issues such as efficiency gains related to water transfers are discussed and calculated water price elasticities and estimated water demand functions provide necessary fundamentals for further modelling work. Social and environmental aspects are accounted for by including constant water demands in the model. Results show higher benefits from inter-regional water allocation. Reducing water supply levels to conform to the sustainable water supply policy, it can be shown that although water supply is reduced by approximately 50%, total benefits from water use are only reduced by 5% and 11% for inter- and intra-regional allocation regimes, respectively. These results indicate that alternative water allocation mechanisms can serve as policy instruments to offset the effects of water scarcity