GP-SUM. Gaussian Processes Filtering of non-Gaussian Beliefs

This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian Processes (GP), and to states represented as a weighted sum of Gaussians. The key attribute of GP-SUM is that it does not rely on linearizations of the dynamic or observation models, or on unimodal Gaussian approximations of the belief, hence enables tracking complex state distributions. The algorithm can be seen as a combination of a sampling-based filter with a probabilistic Bayes filter. On the one hand, GP-SUM operates by sampling the state distribution and propagating each sample through the dynamic system and observation models. On the other hand, it achieves effective sampling and accurate probabilistic propagation by relying on the GP form of the system, and the sum-of-Gaussian form of the belief. We show that GP-SUM outperforms several GP-Bayes and Particle Filters on a standard benchmark. We also demonstrate its use in a pushing task, predicting with experimental accuracy the naturally occurring non-Gaussian distributions.Comment: WAFR 2018, 16 pages, 7 figure

Example of monitoring measurements in a virtual eye clinic using 'big data'

Aim: To assess the equivalence of measurement outcomes between patients attending a standard glaucoma care service, where patients see an ophthalmologist in a face-to-face setting, and a glaucoma monitoring service (GMS). Methods: The average mean deviation (MD) measurement on the visual field (VF) test for 250 patients attending a GMS were compared with a ‘big data’ repository of patients attending a standard glaucoma care service (reference database). In addition, the speed of VF progression between GMS patients and reference database patients was compared. Reference database patients were used to create expected outcomes that GMS patients could be compared with. For GMS patients falling outside of the expected limits, further analysis was carried out on the clinical management decisions for these patients. Results: The average MD of patients in the GMS ranged from +1.6dB to −18.9dB between two consecutive appointments at the clinic. In the first analysis, 12 (4.8%; 95% CI 2.5% to 8.2%) GMS patients scored outside the 90% expected values based on the reference database. In the second analysis, 1.9% (95% CI 0.4% to 5.4%) GMS patients had VF changes outside of the expected 90% limits. Conclusions: Using ‘big data’ collected in the standard glaucoma care service, we found that patients attending a GMS have equivalent outcomes on the VF test. Our findings provide support for the implementation of virtual healthcare delivery in the hospital eye service

Glaucoma detection: the content of optometric eye examinations for a presbyopic patient of African racial descent

Aims: Standardised patient (SP) methodology is the gold standard for evaluating clinical practice. We investigated the content of optometric eyecare for an early presbyopic SP of African racial descent, an “at-risk” patient group for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). Methods: A trained actor presented unannounced as a 44-year-old patient of African racial descent, complaining of recent near vision difficulties, to 100 community optometrists for an audio-recorded eye examination. The eye examinations were subsequently assessed via a checklist based on evidence-based POAG reviews, clinical guidelines and expert panel opinion. Results: Ninety-five per cent of optometrists carried out optic disc assessment and tonometry, which conforms to the UK College of Optometrists’ advice that those patients aged >40 years should receive at least two of the following tests: tonometry, optic disc assessment, visual field testing. Thirty-five per cent of optometrists carried out all of these tests and 6% advised the SP of increased POAG risk in those of African racial descent. Conclusion: SP encounters are an effective measure of optometric clinical practice. As in other healthcare disciplines, there are substantial differences between optometrists in the depth of their clinical investigations, challenging the concept of a “standard sight test”. There is a need for continuing professional development (CPD) in glaucoma screening, in which the increased risk of POAG in those of African racial descent should be emphasised

Impact of Renal Impairment on Beta-Blocker Efficacy in Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Moderate and moderately severe renal impairment are common in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction, but whether beta-blockers are effective is unclear, leading to underuse of life-saving therapy. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate patient prognosis and the efficacy of beta-blockers according to renal function using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS: Analysis of 16,740 individual patients with left ventricular ejection fraction <50% from 10 double-blind, placebo-controlled trials was performed. The authors report all-cause mortality on an intention-to-treat basis, adjusted for baseline covariates and stratified by heart rhythm. RESULTS: Median eGFR at baseline was 63 (interquartile range: 50 to 77) ml/min/1.73 m2; 4,584 patients (27.4%) had eGFR 45 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2, and 2,286 (13.7%) 30 to 44 ml/min/1.73 m2. Over a median follow-up of 1.3 years, eGFR was independently associated with mortality, with a 12% higher risk of death for every 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10% to 15%; p < 0.001). In 13,861 patients in sinus rhythm, beta-blockers reduced mortality versus placebo; adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.73 for eGFR 45 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI: 0.62 to 0.86; p < 0.001) and 0.71 for eGFR 30 to 44 ml/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.87; p = 0.001). The authors observed no deterioration in renal function over time in patients with moderate or moderately severe renal impairment, no difference in adverse events comparing beta-blockers with placebo, and higher mortality in patients with worsening renal function on follow-up. Due to exclusion criteria, there were insufficient patients with severe renal dysfunction (eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2) to draw conclusions. In 2,879 patients with atrial fibrillation, there was no reduction in mortality with beta-blockers at any level of eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction <50% and sinus rhythm should receive beta-blocker therapy even with moderate or moderately severe renal dysfunction

Universities and community-based research in developing countries: community voice and educational provision in rural Tanzania

The main focus of recent research on the community engagement role of universities has been in developed countries, generally in towns and cities and usually conducted from the perspectives of universities rather than the communities with which they engage. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the community engagement role of universities in the rural areas of developing countries, and its potential for strengthening the voice of rural communities. The particular focus is on the provision of primary and secondary education. The paper is based on the assumption that in order for community members to have both the capacity and the confidence to engage in political discourse for improving educational capacity and quality, they need the opportunity to become involved and well-versed in the options available, beyond their own experience. Particular attention is given in the paper to community-based research (CBR). CBR is explored from the perspectives of community members and local leaders in the government-community partnerships which have responsibility for the provision of primary and secondary education in rural Tanzania. The historical and policy background of the partnerships, together with findings from two case studies, provide the context for the paper

Improving maternal confidence in neonatal care through a checklist intervention

Previous qualitative studies suggest a lack of maternal confidence in care of their newborn child upon discharge into the community. This observation was supported by discussion with healthcare professionals and mothers at University College London Hospital (UCLH), highlighting specific areas of concern, in particular identifying and managing common neonatal presentations. The aim of this study was to design and introduce a checklist, addressing concerns, to increase maternal confidence in care of their newborn child. Based on market research, an 8-question checklist was designed, assessing maternal confidence in: feeding, jaundice, nappy care, rashes and dry skin, umbilical cord care, choking, bowel movements, and vomiting. Mothers were assessed as per the checklist, and received a score representative of their confidence in neonatal care. Mothers were followed up with a telephone call, and were assessed after a 7-day-period. Checklist scores before as compared to after the follow-up period were analysed. This process was repeated for three study cycles, with the placement of information posters on the ward prior to the second study cycle, and the stapling of the checklist to the mother's personal child health record (PCHR) prior to the third study cycle. A total of 99 mothers on the Maternity Care Unit at UCLH were enrolled in the study, and 92 were contactable after a 7-day period. During all study cycles, a significant increase in median checklist score was observed after, as compared to before, the 7-day follow up period (p < 0.001). The median difference in checklist score from baseline was greatest for the third cycle. These results suggest that introduction of a simple checklist can be successfully utilised to improve confidence of mothers in being able to care for their newborn child. Further investigation is indicated, but this intervention has the potential for routine application in postnatal care

A survey of current and anticipated use of standard and specialist equipment by UK optometrists

Purpose: To investigate current and anticipated use of equipment and information technology (IT) in community optometric practice in the UK, and to elicit optometrists' views on adoption of specialist equipment and IT. Methods: An anonymous online questionnaire was developed, covering use of standard and specialist diagnostic equipment, and IT. The survey was distributed to a random sample of 1300 UK College of Optometrists members. Results: Four hundred and thirty-two responses were received (response rate = 35%). Enhanced (locally commissioned) or additional/separately contracted services were provided by 73% of respondents. Services included glaucoma repeat measures (30% of respondents), glaucoma referral refinement (22%), fast-track referral for wet age-related macular degeneration (48%), and direct cataract referral (40%). Most respondents (88%) reported using non-contact/pneumo tonometry for intra-ocular pressure measurement, with 81% using Goldmann or Perkins tonometry. The most widely used item of specialist equipment was the fundus camera (74% of respondents). Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) was used by 15% of respondents, up from 2% in 2007. Notably, 43% of those anticipating purchasing specialist equipment in the next 12 months planned to buy an OCT. ‘Paperless’ records were used by 39% of respondents, and almost 80% of practices used an electronic patient record/practice management system. Variations in responses between parts of the UK reflect differences in the provision of the General Ophthalmic Services contract or community enhanced services. There was general agreement that specialised equipment enhances clinical care, permits increased involvement in enhanced services, promotes the practice and can be used as a defence in clinico-legal cases, but initial costs and ongoing maintenance can be a financial burden. Respondents generally agreed that IT facilitates administrative flow and secure exchange of health information, and promotes a state-of-the-art practice image. However, use of IT may not save examination time; its dynamic nature necessitates frequent updates and technical support; the need for adequate training is an issue; and security of data is also a concern. Conclusion: UK optometrists increasingly employ modern equipment and IT services to enhance patient care and for practice management. While the clinical benefits of specialist equipment and IT are appreciated, questions remain as to whether the investment is cost-effective, and how specialist equipment and IT may be used to best advantage in community optometric practice

Prognostic Significance of Changes in Heart Rate Following Uptitration of Beta-Blockers in Patients with Sub-Optimally Treated Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction in Sinus Rhythm versus Atrial Fibrillation

Background: In patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) on sub-optimal doses of beta-blockers, it is conceivable that changes in heart rate following treatment intensification might be important regardless of underlying heart rhythm. We aimed to compare the prognostic significance of both achieved heart rate and change in heart rate following beta-blocker uptitration in patients with HFrEF either in sinus rhythm (SR) or atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: We performed a post hoc analysis of the BIOSTAT-CHF study. We evaluated 1548 patients with HFrEF (mean age 67 years, 35% AF). Median follow-up was 21 months. Patients were evaluated at baseline and at 9 months. The combined primary outcome was all-cause mortality and heart failure hospitalisation stratified by heart rhythm and heart rate at baseline. Results: Despite similar changes in heart rate and beta-blocker dose, a decrease in heart rate at 9 months was associated with reduced incidence of the primary outcome in both SR and AF patients [HR per 10 bpm decrease—SR: 0.83 (0.75–0.91), p &lt; 0.001; AF: 0.89 (0.81–0.98), p = 0.018], whereas the relationship was less strong for achieved heart rate in AF [HR per 10 bpm higher—SR: 1.26 (1.10–1.46), p = 0.001; AF: 1.08 (0.94–1.23), p = 0.18]. Achieved heart rate at 9 months was only prognostically significant in AF patients with high baseline heart rates (p for interaction 0.017 vs. low). Conclusions: Following beta-blocker uptitration, both achieved and change in heart rate were prognostically significant regardless of starting heart rate in SR, however, they were only significant in AF patients with high baseline heart rate