Optionspreistheorie bei vagen Daten

In der heutigen Theorie der Optionsbewertung wird davon ausgegangen, daß die Markterwartungen genau berechenbar sind. Die Unsicherheit besteht lediglich darin, welcher Aktienkurs sich letztlich realisiert, die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten sind bekannt. Dabei treten jedoch erhebliche Probleme auf, denn theoretisch erwartete Preise entsprechen oft nicht den am Markt beobachteten. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, zu untersuchen, ob auch dann eine Optionsbewertung möglich ist, wenn die Unsicherheit nicht nur auf die Stochastik reduziert wird, sondern wenn zusätzlich angenommen wird, daß Marktteilnehmer nur unscharfes Wissen über künftige Preisentwicklungen haben. Hierbei dient die Fuzzy Set Theorie zur Modellierung der nur größenordnungsmäßig bekannten künftigen Aktienkurse. Es wird in dieser Arbeit zwischen der Optionspreistheorie und der Fuzzy Set Theorie eine Verbindung geschaffen, die es zukünftig erlauben wird, die Unsicherheit im Markt besser zu modellieren, als dies mit heute dominierenden Methoden der Optionsbewertung möglich ist.The classical option pricing theory assumes that the future payoffs are known; uncertain is only which payoff will be realized. The probability distribution is given too. But this model leads to a mismatch of theoretical prices and observable market prices. Moreover, it is not reasonable, why everyone should have the same set of crisp payoffs. In this paper we will show that options can also be valued when uncertainty is not reduced to probabilities of payoffs. In our approach the basic model is extended to the case that payoffs are described by fuzzy numbers. By connecting option pricing theory and fuzzy set theory we get a better model of real financial markets. This allows us to establish modern portfolio instruments in a fuzzy environment

Effect of alternative seed treatments on seed-borne fungal diseases in tomato

The fungus Didymella lycopersici infects tomato seed and results in great losses before and after germination. To control the disease, seed companies use thiram preventively, although human allergy problems have been reported. For this reason as well as to address needs in organic agriculture, this study has focused on the effects of alternative methods of control. Nitrite solutions and resistance inducers were tested in a growth chamber. Results showed that soaking the seed in a nitrite solution with a concentration of 300mΜ (in citric acid buffer, pH 2) for 10 minutes reduced losses due to low seed germination and disease incidence in the germinated seedlings completely. When applied for longer intervals sodium nitrite proved phytotoxic whereas in shorter intervals it was not as effective. The resistance inducer Tillecur (mustard seed extract) at the rate of 0.05g/ml was as much effective as sodium nitrite inhibiting disease incidence in germinated seedlings. None of the above treatments was significantly different to thiram and they could replace the fungicide in the control of seedborne D. lycopersici in tomato

Option pricing theory and fuzzy expectations

In der heutigen Theorie der Optionsbewertung wird davon ausgegangen, daß die Markterwartungen genau berechenbar sind. Die Unsicherheit besteht lediglich darin, welcher Aktienkurs sich letztlich realisiert, die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten sind bekannt. Dabei treten jedoch erhebliche Probleme auf, denn theoretisch erwartete Preise entsprechen oft nicht den am Markt beobachteten. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, zu untersuchen, ob auch dann eine Optionsbewertung möglich ist, wenn die Unsicherheit nicht nur auf die Stochastik reduziert wird, sondern wenn zusätzlich angenommen wird, daß Marktteilnehmer nur unscharfes Wissen über künftige Preisentwicklungen haben. Hierbei dient die Fuzzy Set Theorie zur Modellierung der nur größenordnungsmäßig bekannten künftigen Aktienkurse. Es wird in dieser Arbeit zwischen der Optionspreistheorie und der Fuzzy Set Theorie eine Verbindung geschaffen, die es zukünftig erlauben wird, die Unsicherheit im Markt besser zu modellieren, als dies mit heute dominierenden Methoden der Optionsbewertung möglich ist.The classical option pricing theory assumes that the future payoffs are known; uncertain is only which payoff will be realized. The probability distribution is given too. But this model leads to a mismatch of theoretical prices and observable market prices. Moreover, it is not reasonable, why everyone should have the same set of crisp payoffs. In this paper we will show that options can also be valued when uncertainty is not reduced to probabilities of payoffs. In our approach the basic model is extended to the case that payoffs are described by fuzzy numbers. By connecting option pricing theory and fuzzy set theory we get a better model of real financial markets. This allows us to establish modern portfolio instruments in a fuzzy environment

An observational prospective study of topical acidified nitrite for killing methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in contaminated wounds

Background Endogenous nitric oxide (NO) kills bacteria and other organisms as part of the innate immune response. When nitrite is exposed to low pH, NO is generated and has been used as an NO delivery system to treat skin infections. We demonstrated eradication of MRSA carriage from wounds using a topical formulation of citric acid (4.5%) and sodium nitrite (3%) creams co-applied for 5 days to 15 wounds in an observational prospective pilot study of 8 patients. Findings Following treatment with topical citric acid and sodium nitrite, 9 of 15 wounds (60%) and 3 of 8 patients (37%) were cleared of infection. MRSA isolates from these patients were all sensitive to acidified nitrite in vitro compared to methicillin-sensitive S. aureus and a reference strain of MRSA. Conclusions Nitric oxide and acidified nitrite offer a novel therapy for control of MRSA in wounds. Wounds that were not cleared of infection may have been re-contaminated or the bioavailability of acidified nitrite impaired by local factors in the tissue

Impacts of organic and conventional crop management on diversity and activity of free-living nitrogen fixing bacteria and total bacteria are subsidiary to temporal effects

A three year field study (2007-2009) of the diversity and numbers of the total and metabolically active free-living diazotophic bacteria and total bacterial communities in organic and conventionally managed agricultural soil was conducted at the Nafferton Factorial Systems Comparison (NFSC) study, in northeast England. The result demonstrated that there was no consistent effect of either organic or conventional soil management across the three years on the diversity or quantity of either diazotrophic or total bacterial communities. However, ordination analyses carried out on data from each individual year showed that factors associated with the different fertility management measures including availability of nitrogen species, organic carbon and pH, did exert significant effects on the structure of both diazotrophic and total bacterial communities. It appeared that the dominant drivers of qualitative and quantitative changes in both communities were annual and seasonal effects. Moreover, regression analyses showed activity of both communities was significantly affected by soil temperature and climatic conditions. The diazotrophic community showed no significant change in diversity across the three years, however, the total bacterial community significantly increased in diversity year on year. Diversity was always greatest during March for both diazotrophic and total bacterial communities. Quantitative analyses using qPCR of each community indicated that metabolically active diazotrophs were highest in year 1 but the population significantly declined in year 2 before recovering somewhat in the final year. The total bacterial population in contrast increased significantly each year. Seasonal effects were less consistent in this quantitative study

Composition differences between organic and conventional meat: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Demand for organic meat is partially driven by consumer perceptions that organic foods are more nutritious than non-organic foods. However, there have been no systematic reviews comparing specifically the nutrient content of organic and conventionally produced meat. In this study, we report results of a meta-analysis based on sixty-seven published studies comparing the composition of organic and non-organic meat products. For many nutritionally relevant compounds (e.g. minerals, antioxidants and most individual fatty acids (FA)), the evidence base was too weak for meaningful meta-analyses. However, significant differences in FA profiles were detected when data from all livestock species were pooled. Concentrations of SFA and MUFA were similar or slightly lower, respectively, in organic compared with conventional meat. Larger differences were detected for total PUFA and n-3 PUFA, which were an estimated 23 (95 % CI 11, 35) % and 47 (95 % CI 10, 84) % higher in organic meat, respectively. However, for these and many other composition parameters, for which meta-analyses found significant differences, heterogeneity was high, and this could be explained by differences between animal species/meat types. Evidence from controlled experimental studies indicates that the high grazing/forage-based diets prescribed under organic farming standards may be the main reason for differences in FA profiles. Further studies are required to enable meta-analyses for a wider range of parameters (e.g. antioxidant, vitamin and mineral concentrations) and to improve both precision and consistency of results for FA profiles for all species. Potential impacts of composition differences on human health are discussed

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Agronomic Practices on Health, Tuber Yield, and Mineral Composition of Two Contrasting Potato Varieties Developed for High and Low Input Production Systems

\ua9 2024 by the authors.Modern potato varieties from high-input, conventional farming-focused breeding programs produce substantially (up to 45%) lower yields when grown in organic production systems, and this was shown to be primarily due to less efficient fertilization and late blight (Phytophthora infestans) control methods being used in organic farming. It has been hypothesized that the breeding of potato varieties suitable for the organic/low-input sector should (i) focus on increasing nutrient (especially N) use efficiency, (ii) introduce durable late blight resistance, and (iii) be based on selection under low-input conditions. To test this hypothesis, we used an existing long-term factorial field experiment (the NEFG trials) to assess the effect of crop management practices (rotation design, fertilization regime, and crop protection methods) used in conventional and organic farming systems on crop health, tuber yield, and mineral composition parameters in two potato varieties, Sant\ue9 and Sarpo mira, that were developed in breeding programs for high and low-input farming systems, respectively. Results showed that, compared to Sant\ue9, the variety Sarpo mira was more resistant to foliar and tuber blight but more susceptible to potato scab (Streptomyces scabies) and produced higher yields and tubers with higher concentrations of nutritionally desirable mineral nutrients but lower concentrations of Cd. The study also found that, compared to the Cu-fungicides permitted for late blight control in organic production, application of synthetic chemical fungicides permitted and widely used in conventional production resulted in significantly lower late blight severity in Sante but not in Sarpo mira. Results from both ANOVA and redundancy analysis (RDA) indicate that the effects of climatic (precipitation, radiation, and temperature) and agronomic (fertilization and crop protection) explanatory variables on crop health and yield differed considerably between the two varieties. Specifically, the RDA identified crop protection as a significant driver for Sant\ue9 but not Sarpo mira, while precipitation was the strongest driver for crop health and yield for Sarpo mira but not Sant\ue9. In contrast, the effect of climatic and agronomic drivers on tuber mineral and toxic metal concentrations in the two varieties was found to be similar. Our results support the hypothesis that selection of potato varieties under low agrochemical input conditions can deliver varieties that combine (i) late blight resistance/tolerance, (ii) nutrient use efficiency, and (iii) yield potential in organic farming systems

Inhibition of Epstein-Barr virus-induced growth proliferation by a nuclear antigen EBNA2-TAT peptide

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) causes infectious mononucleosis and is associated with cancers in immunocompromised populations. Antiviral drugs targeted against lytic viral replication have limited efficacy in these disease settings. EBV infection of peripheral blood mononuclear cells induces growth proliferation and the EBV latency Epstein-Barr virus-encoded nuclear antigen (EBNA)2 transcriptional transactivator (TAT) is essential for this response. EBNA2 targets the cellular DNA-binding protein CBF1 to mimic activated Notch signaling. A 10-aa peptide from the CBF1 interaction domain of EBNA2 was synthesized as a fusion with the protein transduction domain of HIV-1 TAT. The EBNA2-TAT peptide blocked EBNA2-CBF1 interaction in an in vitro GST affinity assay and labeling with fluorescein confirmed that the EBNA2-TAT peptide efficiently entered cultured B cells. Neither EBNA2-TAT, nor a mutant peptide with a 2-aa substitution that was unable to block the EBNA2-CBF1 interaction, significantly affected the growth of non-EBNA2-expressing EBV(-) B cells or Burkitt's lymphoma Akata cells. However, treatment of an EBV-immortalized lymphoblastoid cell line with the EBNA2-TAT peptide stopped cell growth and reduced cell viability. RT-PCR analyses of gene expression in the peptide-treated lymphoblastoid cell line cultures revealed that EBNA2-TAT treatment down-regulated the EBNA2-responsive viral LMP1 and LMP2 genes and cellular CD23, intercellular adhesion molecule 1, BATF, and Cdk1 genes while up-regulating expression of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21. EBV-induced outgrowth of B cells from cultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells was also blocked in a dose-responsive manner by the EBNA2-TAT peptide. This study suggests that cell-permeable EBNA2 peptides may have potential as novel anti-EBV therapeutics