Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

The spatial allocation of population: a review of large-scale gridded population data products and their fitness for use

Population data represent an essential component in studies focusing on human-nature interrelationships, disaster risk assessment and environmental health. Several recent efforts have produced global- and continental-extent gridded population data which are becoming increasingly popular among various research communities. However, these data products, which are of very different characteristics and based on different modeling assumptions, have never been systematically reviewed and compared, which may impede their appropriate use. This article fills this gap and presents, compares and discusses a set of large-scale (global and continental) gridded datasets representing population counts or densities. It focuses on data properties, methodological approaches and relative quality aspects that are important to fully understand the characteristics of the data with regard to the intended uses. Written by the data producers and members of the user community, through the lens of the "fitness for use" concept, the aim of this paper is to provide potential data users with the knowledge base needed to make informed decisions about the appropriateness of the data products available in relation to the target application and for critical analysis

Soldier Load Carriage, Injuries, Rehabilitation and Physical Conditioning: An International Approach

Soldiers are often required to carry heavy loads that can exceed 45 kg. The physiological costs and biomechanical responses to these loads, whilst varying with the contexts in which they are carried, have led to soldier injuries. These injuries can range from musculoskeletal injuries (e.g., joint/ligamentous injuries and stress fractures) to neurological injuries (e.g., paresthesias), and impact on both the soldier and the army in which they serve. Following treatment to facilitate initial recovery from injuries, soldiers must be progressively reconditioned for load carriage. Optimal conditioning and reconditioning practices include load carriage sessions with a frequency of one session every 10–14 days in conjunction with a program of both resistance and aerobic training. Speed of march and grade and type of terrain covered are factors that can be adjusted to manipulate load carriage intensity, limiting the need to adjust load weight alone. Factors external to the load carriage program, such as other military duties, can also impart physical loading and must be considered as part of any load carriage conditioning/reconditioning program

Physiological aspects of the determination of comprehensive arterial inflows in the lower abdomen assessed by Doppler ultrasound

Non-invasive measurement of splanchnic hemodynamics has been utilized in the clinical setting for diagnosis of gastro-intestinal disease, and for determining reserve blood flow (BF) distribution. However, previous studies that measured BF in a "single vessel with small size volume", such as the superior mesenteric and coeliac arteries, were concerned solely with the target organ in the gastrointestinal area, and therefore evaluation of alterations in these single arterial BFs under various states was sometimes limited to "small blood volumes", even though there was a relatively large change in flow. BF in the lower abdomen (BFAb) is potentially a useful indicator of the influence of comprehensive BF redistribution in cardiovascular and hepato-gastrointestinal disease, in the postprandial period, and in relation to physical exercise. BFAb can be determined theoretically using Doppler ultrasound by subtracting BF in the bilateral proximal femoral arteries (FAs) from BF in the upper abdominal aorta (Ao) above the coeliac trunk. Prior to acceptance of this method of determining a true BFAb value, it is necessary to obtain validated normal physiological data that represent the hemodynamic relationship between the three arteries. In determining BFAb, relative reliability was acceptably high (range in intra-class correlation coefficient: 0.85-0.97) for three arterial hemodynamic parameters (blood velocity, vessel diameter, and BF) in three repeated measurements obtained over three different days. Bland-Altman analysis of the three repeated measurements revealed that day-to-day physiological variation (potentially including measurement error) was within the acceptable minimum range (95% of confidence interval), calculated as the difference in hemodynamics between two measurements. Mean BF (ml/min) was 2951 ± 767 in Ao, 316 ± 97 in left FA, 313 ± 83 in right FA, and 2323 ± 703 in BFAb, which is in agreement with a previous study that measured the sum of BF in the major part of the coeliac, mesenteric, and renal arteries. This review presents the methodological concept that underlies BFAb, and aspects of its day-to-day relative reliability in terms of the hemodynamics of the three target arteries, relationship with body surface area, respiratory effects, and potential clinical usefulness and application, in relation to data previously reported in original dedicated research

new technologies for the sustainable management and planning of rural land and environment

New technologies could be adequately introduced for an improved analysis aimed to the sustainable management and planning of the rural land, as well as its environment and landscape. Nowadays, this analysis is easier and more complete through the use of powerful and reliable tools. Several changes can be considered to be as models of territorial development, useful for an appropriate planning of the human interventions in a rural area. Remote sensing techniques could be employed for the monitoring of agricultural land variation, while Geographical Information Systems are excellent tools for landscape modeling and three-dimensional analysis. In this chapter, land-use changes in a rural area located in southern Italy were analyzed by comparing some historical cartographic supports with modern maps, in order to evaluate the morphological and vegetation variations of the agroforestry land during time. Moreover, a landscape analysis was conducted through the implementation of digital terrain models, which were enriched by draping land cover pictures over them. These elaborations finally enabled an evaluation in a scenic way of the aesthetic quality of the agroforestry landscape, allowing a virtual jump back to time periods when digital aerial photography was not yet even possible. This multi-temporal analysis with the support of GIS techniques revealed to have a great potential for assessing and managing landscape diversity and changes of vegetation, as well as for planning sound interventions over the landscape structures