Actors and factors - bridging social science findings and urban land use change modeling

Recent uneven land use dynamics in urban areas resulting from demographic change, economic pressure and the cities’ mutual competition in a globalising world challenge both scientists and practitioners, among them social scientists, modellers and spatial planners. Processes of growth and decline specifically affect the urban environment, the requirements of the residents on social and natural resources. Social and environmental research is interested in a better understanding and ways of explaining the interactions between society and landscape in urban areas. And it is also needed for making life in cities attractive, secure and affordable within or despite of uneven dynamics.\ud The position paper upon “Actors and factors – bridging social science findings and urban land use change modeling” presents approaches and ideas on how social science findings on the interaction of the social system (actors) and the land use (factors) are taken up and formalised using modelling and gaming techniques. It should be understood as a first sketch compiling major challenges and proposing exemplary solutions in the field of interest

Pegfilgrastim ± ciprofloxacin for primary prophylaxis with TAC (docetaxel/doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide) chemotherapy for breast cancer. Results from the GEPARTRIO study

Background: TAC (docetaxel/doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide) is associated with high incidences of grade 4 neutropenia and febrile neutropenia (FN). This analysis compared the efficacies of four regimens for primary prophylaxis of FN and related toxic effects in breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant TAC. Patients and methods: Patients with stage T2-T4 primary breast cancer were scheduled to receive 6-8 cycles of TAC. Primary prophylaxis was: ciprofloxacin 500 mg orally twice daily on days 5-14 (n = 253 patients; 1478 cycles), daily granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) (filgrastim 5 μg/kg/day or lenograstim 150 μg/m2/day) on days 5-10 (n = 377; 2400 cycles), pegfilgrastim 6 mg on day 2 (n = 305; 1930 cycles), or pegfilgrastim plus ciprofloxacin (n = 321; 1890 cycles). Results: Pegfilgrastim with/without ciprofloxacin was significantly more effective than daily G-CSF or ciprofloxacin in preventing FN (5% and 7% versus 18% and 22% of patients; all P < 0.001), grade 4 neutropenia, and leukopenia. Pegfilgrastim plus ciprofloxacin completely prevented first cycle FN (P < 0.01 versus pegfilgrastim alone) and fatal neutropenic events. Conclusion: Ciprofloxacin alone, or daily G-CSF from day 5-10 (as in common practice), provided suboptimal protection against FN and related toxic effects in patients receiving TAC. Pegfilgrastim was significantly more effective in this setting, especially if given with ciprofloxaci

Participatory analysis for adaptation to climate change in Mediterranean agricultural systems: possible choices in process design (versão Pre Print)

There is an increasing call for local measures to adapt to climate change, based on foresight analyses in collaboration with actors. However, such analyses involve many challenges, particularly because the actors concerned may not consider climate change to be an urgent concern. This paper examines the methodological choices made by three research teams in the design and implementation of participatory foresight analyses to explore agricultural and water management options for adaptation to climate change. Case studies were conducted in coastal areas of France, Morocco, and Portugal where the groundwater is intensively used for irrigation, the aquifers are at risk or are currently overexploited, and a serious agricultural crisis is underway. When designing the participatory processes, the researchers had to address four main issues: whether to avoid or prepare dialogue between actors whose relations may be limited or tense; how to select participants and get them involved; how to facilitate discussion of issues that the actors may not initially consider to be of great concern; and finally, how to design and use scenarios. In each case, most of the invited actors responded and met to discuss and evaluate a series of scenarios. Strategies were discussed at different levels, from farming practices to aquifer management. It was shown that such participatory analyses can be implemented in situations which may initially appear to be unfavourable. This was made possible by the flexibility in the methodological choices, in particular the possibility of framing the climate change issue in a broader agenda for discussion with the actors

HER2 and ESR1 mRNA expression levels and response to neoadjuvant trastuzumab plus chemotherapy in patients with primary breast cancer

Introduction: Recent data suggest that benefit from trastuzumab and chemotherapy might be related to expression of HER2 and estrogen receptor (ESR1). Therefore, we investigated HER2 and ESR1 mRNA levels in core biopsies of HER2-positive breast carcinomas from patients treated within the neoadjuvant GeparQuattro trial. Methods: HER2 levels were centrally analyzed by immunohistochemistry (IHC), silver in-situ hybridization (SISH) and qRT-PCR in 217 pretherapeutic formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) core biopsies. All tumors had been HER2-positive by local pathology and had been treated with neoadjuvant trastuzumab/ chemotherapy in GeparQuattro. Results: Only 73% of the tumors (158 of 217) were centrally HER2-positive (cHER2-positive) by IHC/SISH, with cHER2-positive tumors showing a significantly higher pCR rate (46.8% vs. 20.3%, p<0.0005). HER2 status by qRT-PCR showed a concordance of 88.5% with the central IHC/SISH status, with a low pCR rate in those tumors that were HER2-negative by mRNA analysis (21.1% vs. 49.6%, p<0.0005). The level of HER2 mRNA expression was linked to response rate in ESR1-positive tumors, but not in ESR1-negative tumors. HER2 mRNA expression was significantly associated with pCR in the HER2-positive/ESR1-positive tumors (p=0.004), but not in HER2-positive/ESR1-negative tumors. Conclusions: Only patients with cHER2-positive tumors - irrespective of the method used - have an increased pCR rate with trastuzumab plus chemotherapy. In patients with cHER2-negative tumors the pCR rate is comparable to the pCR rate in the non-trastuzumab treated HER-negative population. Response to trastuzumab is correlated to HER2 mRNA levels only in ESR1-positive tumors. This study adds further evidence to the different biology of both subsets within the HER2-positive group

Recommendations from an international expert panel on the use of neoadjuvant (primary) systemic treatment of operable breast cancer: new perspectives 2006

Neoadjuvant (primary systemic) treatment has become a standard option for primary operable disease for patients who are candidates for adjuvant systemic chemotherapy, irrespective of the size of the tumor. Because of new treatments and new understandings of breast cancer, however, recommendations published in 2006 regarding neoadjuvant treatment for operable disease required updating. Therefore, a third international panel of representatives of a number of breast cancer clinical research groups was convened in September 2006 to update these recommendations. As part of this effort, data published to date were critically reviewed and indications for neoadjuvant treatment were newly define

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises

Towards global volcano monitoring using multisensor sentinel missions and artificial intelligence: The MOUNTS monitoring system

Most of the world&rsquo;s 1500 active volcanoes are not instrumentally monitored, resulting in deadly eruptions which can occur without observation of precursory activity. The new Sentinel missions are now providing freely available imagery with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions, with payloads allowing for a comprehensive monitoring of volcanic hazards. We here present the volcano monitoring platform MOUNTS (Monitoring Unrest from Space), which aims for global monitoring, using multisensor satellite-based imagery (Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar SAR, Sentinel-2 Short-Wave InfraRed SWIR, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI), ground-based seismic data (GEOFON and USGS global earthquake catalogues), and artificial intelligence (AI) to assist monitoring tasks. It provides near-real-time access to surface deformation, heat anomalies, SO2 gas emissions, and local seismicity at a number of volcanoes around the globe, providing support to both scientific and operational communities for volcanic risk assessment. Results are visualized on an open-access website where both geocoded images and time series of relevant parameters are provided, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the temporal evolution of volcanic activity and eruptive products. We further demonstrate that AI can play a key role in such monitoring frameworks. Here we design and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) on synthetically generated interferograms, to operationally detect strong deformation (e.g., related to dyke intrusions), in the real interferograms produced by MOUNTS. The utility of this interdisciplinary approach is illustrated through a number of recent eruptions (Erta Ale 2017, Fuego 2018, Kilauea 2018, Anak Krakatau 2018, Ambrym 2018, and Piton de la Fournaise 2018&ndash;2019). We show how exploiting multiple sensors allows for assessment of a variety of volcanic processes in various climatic settings, ranging from subsurface magma intrusion, to surface eruptive deposit emplacement, pre/syn-eruptive morphological changes, and gas propagation into the atmosphere. The data processed by MOUNTS is providing insights into eruptive precursors and eruptive dynamics of these volcanoes, and is sharpening our understanding of how the integration of multiparametric datasets can help better monitor volcanic hazards

Development of a High Level Waste Tank Inspection System

The Westinghouse Savannah River Technology Center was requested by it`s sister site, West Valley Nuclear Service (WVNS), to develop a remote inspection system to gather wall thickness readings of their High Level Waste Tanks. WVNS management chose to take a proactive approach to gain current information on two tanks t hat had been in service since the early 70`s. The tanks contain high level waste, are buried underground, and have only two access ports to an annular space between the tank and the secondary concrete vault. A specialized remote system was proposed to provide both a visual surveillance and ultrasonic thickness measurements of the tank walls. A magnetic wheeled crawler was the basis for the remote delivery system integrated with an off-the-shelf Ultrasonic Data Acquisition System. A development program was initiated for Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) to design, fabricate, and test a remote system based on the Crawler. The system was completed and involved three crawlers to perform the needed tasks, an Ultrasonic Crawler, a Camera Crawler, and a Surface Prep Crawler. The crawlers were computer controlled so that their operation could be done remotely and their position on the wall could be tracked. The Ultrasonic Crawler controls were interfaced with ABB Amdata`s I-PC, Ultrasonic Data Acquisition System so that thickness mapping of the wall could be obtained. A second system was requested by Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC), to perform just ultrasonic mapping on their similar Waste Storage Tanks; however, the system needed to be interfaced with the P-scan Ultrasonic Data Acquisition System. Both remote inspection systems were completed 9/94. Qualifications tests were conducted by WVNS prior to implementation on the actual tank and tank development was achieved 10/94. The second inspection system was deployed at WSRC 11/94 with success, and the system is now in continuous service inspecting the remaining high level waste tanks at WSRC

ESMO Management and treatment adapted recommendations in the COVID-19 era: Breast Cancer

The global preparedness and response to the rapid escalation to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2-related disease (COVID-19) to a pandemic proportion has demanded the formulation of a reliable, useful and evidence-based mechanism for health services prioritisation, to achieve the highest quality standards of care to all patients. The prioritisation of high value cancer interventions must be embedded in the agenda for the pandemic response, ensuring that no inconsistency or discrepancy emerge in the health planning processes. The aim of this work is to organise health interventions for breast cancer management and research in a tiered framework (high, medium, low value), formulating a scheme of prioritisation per clinical cogency and intrinsic value or magnitude of benefit. The public health tools and schemes for priority setting in oncology have been used as models, aspiring to capture clinical urgency, value in healthcare, community goals and fairness, while respecting the principles of benevolence, non-maleficence, autonomy and justice. We discuss the priority health interventions across the cancer continuum, giving a perspective on the role and meaning to maintain some services (undeferrable) while temporarily abrogate some others (deferrable). Considerations for implementation and the essential link to pre-existing health services, especially primary healthcare, are addressed, outlining a framework for the development of effective and functional services, such as telemedicine. The discussion covers the theme of health systems strategising, and why oncology care, in particular breast cancer care, should be maintained in parallel to pandemic control measures, providing a pragmatic clinical model within the broader context of public healthcare schemes