Excavation at Aguas Buenas, Robinson Crusoe Island, Chile, of a gunpowder magazine and the supposed campsite of Alexander Selkirk, together with an account of early navigational dividers

Excavations were undertaken of a ruined building at Aguas Buenas, identified as an 18th-century Spanish gunpowder magazine. Evidence was also found for the campsite of an early European occupant of the island. A case is made that this was Alexander Selkirk, a castaway here from 1704 to 1709. Selkirk was the model for Defoe’s Robinson Crusoe. A detailed discussion is given of a fragment of copper alloy identifi ed as being from a pair of navigational dividers

Characterisation of extrasolar planetary transit candidates

The detection of transits is an efficient technique to uncover faint companions around stars. The full characterisation of the companions (M-type stars, brown dwarfs or exoplanets) requires high-resolution spectroscopy to measure properly masses and radii. With the advent of massive variability surveys over wide fields, the large number of possible candidates makes such a full characterisation impractical for all of them. We explore here a fast technique to pre-select the most promising candidates using either near-IR photometry or low resolution spectroscopy. We develop a new method based on the well-calibrated surface brightness relation along with the correlation between mass and luminosity for main sequence stars, so that not only giant stars can be excluded but also accurate effective temperatures and radii can be measured. The main source of uncertainty arises from the unknown dispersion of extinction at a given distance. We apply this technique to our observations of a sample of 34 stars extracted from the 62 low-depth transits identified by OGLE during their survey of some 10e5 stars stars in the Carina fields of the Galactic disc. We infer that at least 78% of the companions of the stars which are well characterised in this sample are not exoplanets. Stars OGLE-TR-105, OGLE-TR-109 and OGLE-TR-111 are the likeliest to host exoplanets and deserve high-resolution follow-up studies. OGLE-TR-111 was very recently confirmed as an exoplanet with M_planet = 0.53 +- 0.1 M_Jup (Pont et al. 2004), confirming the efficiency of our method in pre-selecting reliable planetary transit candidates.Comment: 31 pages, 17 figures. Astronomy & Astrophysics, in pres

Variation in duration of repeat prescriptions: a primary care cohort study in England

Background Many patients receive repeat prescriptions for routine medications used to treat chronic conditions. Doctors typically issue repeat prescriptions with durations ranging from 28 to 84 days. There is currently no national guidance in England for the optimal prescription duration for routine medications. Aim To evaluate current prescription durations for five common routine medications in England; explore and visualise geographical variation; and identify practice factors that are associated with shorter prescribing duration to inform policy making. Design and setting A retrospective cohort study of NHS primary care prescribing data in England from December 2018 to November 2019. Method The prescription duration was analysed for five common routine medications in England; ramipril, atorvastatin, simvastatin, levothyroxine, and amlodipine. Variation was assessed between regional clinical commissioning groups (CCGs), and practice factors associated with different durations were identified. Results Of the common medications included, 28-day prescriptions accounted for 48.5% (2.5 billion) tablets/capsules issued, while 43.6% were issued for 56 days. There was very wide regional variation (7.2%–95.0%) in the proportion of 28-day prescriptions issued by CCGs. Practice dispensing status was the most likely predictor of prescription duration; dispensing practices had a higher 28-day prescribing proportion than non-dispensing practices. The proportion of patients with chronic conditions and the electronic health record system used by a practice were also associated with prescription duration. Conclusion This analysis of OpenPrescribing data showed that repeat prescriptions of 28 days are common for patients taking routine medications for chronic conditions, particularly in dispensing practices. This provides data to inform the policy debate on current practice. Configuration of electronic health record systems offer an opportunity to implement and evaluate new policies on repeat prescription duration in England

Trends in weight gain recorded in English primary care before and during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic: An observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and rapid weight gain are established risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and have emerged as independent risk factors for severe disease following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Restrictions imposed to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in profound societal changes that impacted many health behaviours, including physical activity and nutrition, associated with rate of weight gain. We investigated which clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were associated with rapid weight gain and the greatest acceleration in rate of weight gain during the pandemic among adults registered with an English National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform inside TPP to conduct an observational cohort study of routinely collected electronic healthcare records. We investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) values recorded in English primary care between March 2015 and March 2022. We extracted data on 17,742,365 adults aged 18 to 90 years old (50.1% female, 76.1% white British) registered with an English primary care practice. We estimated individual rates of weight gain before (δ-prepandemic) and during (δ-pandemic) the pandemic and identified individuals with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) in each period. We also estimated the change in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic period (δ-change = δ-pandemic-δ-prepandemic) and defined extreme accelerators as the 10% of individuals with the greatest increase in their rate of weight gain (δ-change ≥1.84 kg/m2/year) between these periods. We estimated associations with these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), and ethnicity. P-values were generated in regression models. The median BMI of our study population was 27.8 kg/m2, interquartile range (IQR) [24.3, 32.1] in 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and 28.0 kg/m2, IQR [24.4, 32.6] in 2021. Rapid pandemic weight gain was associated with sex, age, and IMD. Male sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [0.76, 0.76], p < 0.001), older age (e.g., 50 to 59 years versus 18 to 29 years: aOR 0.60, 95% CI [0.60, 0.61], p < 0.001]); and living in less deprived areas (least-deprived-IMD-quintile versus most-deprived: aOR 0.77, 95% CI [0.77, 0.78] p < 0.001) reduced the odds of rapid weight gain. Compared to white British individuals, all other ethnicities had lower odds of rapid pandemic weight gain (e.g., Indian versus white British: aOR 0.69, 95% CI [0.68, 0.70], p < 0.001). Long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the odds, with mental health conditions having the greatest effect (e.g., depression (aOR 1.18, 95% CI [1.17, 1.18], p < 0.001)). Similar characteristics increased odds of extreme acceleration in the rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. However, changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic may have introduced new bias to the data. CONCLUSIONS: We found female sex, younger age, deprivation, white British ethnicity, and mental health conditions were associated with rapid pandemic weight gain and extreme acceleration in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics when formulating research, policies, and interventions targeting BMI in the period of post pandemic service restoration and in future pandemic planning

Comparative effectiveness of BNT162b2 versus mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine boosting in England: matched cohort study in OpenSAFELY-TPP

Objective To compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) covid-19 vaccines during the booster programme in England. Design Matched cohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial. Setting Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 delta and omicron variants were dominant. Participants 3 237 918 adults who received a booster dose of either vaccine between 29 October 2021 and 25 February 2022 as part of the national booster programme in England and who received a primary course of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Intervention Vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 as a booster vaccine dose. Main outcome measures Recorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, and non-covid-19 related death at 20 weeks after receipt of the booster dose. Results 1 618 959 people were matched in each vaccine group, contributing a total 64 546 391 person weeks of follow-up. The 20 week risks per 1000 for a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were 164.2 (95% confidence interval 163.3 to 165.1) for BNT162b2 and 159.9 (159.0 to 160.8) for mRNA-1273; the hazard ratio comparing mRNA-1273 with BNT162b2 was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.95 to 0.96). The 20 week risks per 1000 for hospital admission with covid-19 were 0.75 (0.71 to 0.79) for BNT162b2 and 0.65 (0.61 to 0.69) for mRNA-1273; the hazard ratio was 0.89 (0.82 to 0.95). Covid-19 related deaths were rare: the 20 week risks per 1000 were 0.028 (0.021 to 0.037) for BNT162b2 and 0.024 (0.018 to 0.033) for mRNA-1273; hazard ratio 0.83 (0.58 to 1.19). Comparative effectiveness was generally similar within subgroups defined by the primary course vaccine brand, age, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and clinical vulnerability. Relative benefit was similar when vaccines were compared separately in the delta and omicron variant eras. Conclusions This matched observational study of adults estimated a modest benefit of booster vaccination with mRNA-1273 compared with BNT162b2 in preventing positive SARS-CoV-2 tests and hospital admission with covid-19 20 weeks after vaccination, during a period of delta followed by omicron variant dominance

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines as First Booster Doses in England: An Observational Study in OpenSAFELY-TPP

BackgroundThe UK delivered its first "booster" COVID-19 vaccine doses in September 2021, initially to individuals at high risk of severe disease, then to all adults. The BNT162b2 Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was used initially, then also Moderna mRNA-1273.MethodsWith the approval of the National Health Service England, we used routine clinical data to estimate the effectiveness of boosting with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 compared with no boosting in eligible adults who had received two primary course vaccine doses. We matched each booster recipient with an unboosted control on factors relating to booster priority status and prior COVID-19 immunization. We adjusted for additional factors in Cox models, estimating hazard ratios up to 182 days (6 months) following booster dose. We estimated hazard ratios overall and within the following periods: 1-14, 15-42, 43-69, 70-97, 98-126, 127-152, and 155-182 days. Outcomes included a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, COVID-19 hospitalization, COVID-19 death, non-COVID-19 death, and fracture.ResultsWe matched 8,198,643 booster recipients with unboosted controls. Adjusted hazard ratios over 6-month follow-up were: positive SARS-CoV-2 test 0.75 (0.74, 0.75); COVID-19 hospitalization 0.30 (0.29, 0.31); COVID-19 death 0.11 (0.10, 0.14); non-COVID-19 death 0.22 (0.21, 0.23); and fracture 0.77 (0.75, 0.78). Estimated effectiveness of booster vaccines against severe COVID-19-related outcomes peaked during the first 3 months following the booster dose. By 6 months, the cumulative incidence of positive SARS-CoV-2 test was higher in boosted than unboosted individuals.ConclusionsWe estimate that COVID-19 booster vaccination, compared with no booster vaccination, provided substantial protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 death but only limited protection against positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Lower rates of fracture in boosted than unboosted individuals may suggest unmeasured confounding. Observational studies should report estimated vaccine effectiveness against nontarget and negative control outcomes

The Response of Vocal Fold Fibroblasts and Mesenchymal Stromal Cells to Vibration

Illumination of cellular changes caused by mechanical forces present within the laryngeal microenvironment may well guide strategies for tissue engineering the vocal fold lamina propria. The purpose of this study was to compare the response of human vocal fold fibroblasts (hVFF) and bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSC) to vibratory stimulus. In order to study these effects, a bioreactor capable of vibrating two cell seeded substrates was developed. The cell seeded substrates contact each other as a result of the sinusoidal frequency, producing a motion similar to the movement of true vocal folds. Utilizing this bioreactor, hVFF and BM-MSC were subjected to 200 Hz vibration and 20% strain for 8 hours. Immunohistochemistry (Ki-67 and TUNEL) was performed to examine cell proliferation and apoptosis respectively, while semi-quantitative RT-PCR was used to assess extracellular matrix related gene expression. HVFF significantly proliferated (p = 0.011) when subjected to 200 Hz vibration and 20% strain, while BM-MSC did not (p = 1.0). A statistically significant increase in apoptosis of BM-MSC (p = 0.0402) was observed under the experimental conditions; however high cell viability (96%) was maintained. HVFF did not have significantly altered apoptosis (p = 0.7849) when subjected to vibration and strain. Semi-quantitative RT-PCR results show no significant differences in expression levels of collagen I (BM-MSC p = 0.1951, hVFF p = v0.3629), fibronectin (BM-MSC p = 0.1951, hVFF p = 0.2513), and TGF-β1 (BM-MSC p = 0.2534, hVFF p = 0.6029) between vibratory and static conditions in either cell type. Finally, smooth muscle actin mRNA was not present in either vibrated or static samples, indicating that no myofibroblast differentiation occurred for either cell type. Together, these results demonstrate that BM-MSC may be a suitable alternative to hVFF for vocal fold tissue engineering. Further investigation into a larger number of gene markers, protein levels, increased number of donors and vibratory conditions are warranted

Clinical coding of long COVID in primary care 2020-2023 in a cohort of 19 million adults: an OpenSAFELY analysis

BackgroundLong COVID is the patient-coined term for the persistent symptoms of COVID-19 illness for weeks, months or years following the acute infection. There is a large burden of long COVID globally from self-reported data, but the epidemiology, causes and treatments remain poorly understood. Primary care is used to help identify and treat patients with long COVID and therefore Electronic Health Records (EHRs) of past COVID-19 patients could be used to help fill these knowledge gaps. We aimed to describe the incidence and differences in demographic and clinical characteristics in recorded long COVID in primary care records in England.MethodsWith the approval of NHS England we used routine clinical data from over 19 million adults in England linked to SARS-COV-2 test result, hospitalisation and vaccination data to describe trends in the recording of 16 clinical codes related to long COVID between November 2020 and January 2023. Using OpenSAFELY, we calculated rates per 100,000 person-years and plotted how these changed over time. We compared crude and adjusted (for age, sex, 9 NHS regions of England, and the dominant variant circulating) rates of recorded long COVID in patient records between different key demographic and vaccination characteristics using negative binomial models.FindingsWe identified a total of 55,465 people recorded to have long COVID over the study period, which included 20,025 diagnoses codes and 35,440 codes for further assessment. The incidence of new long COVID records increased steadily over 2021, and declined over 2022. The overall rate per 100,000 person-years was 177.5 cases in women (95% CI: 175.5–179) and 100.5 in men (99.5–102). The majority of those with a long COVID record did not have a recorded positive SARS-COV-2 test 12 or more weeks before the long COVID record.InterpretationIn this descriptive study, EHR recorded long COVID was very low between 2020 and 2023, and incident records of long COVID declined over 2022. Using EHR diagnostic or referral codes unfortunately has major limitations in identifying and ascertaining true cases and timing of long COVID.FundingThis research was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (OpenPROMPT: COV-LT2-0073)

The orbit and stellar masses of the archetype colliding-wind binary WR 140

We present updated orbital elements for the Wolf-Rayet (WR) binary WR 140 (HD 193793; WC7pd + O5.5fc). The new orbital elements were derived using previously published measurements along with 160 new radial velocity measurements across the 2016 periastron passage of WR 140. Additionally, four new measurements of the orbital astrometry were collected with the CHARA Array. With these measurements, we derive stellar masses of $M_{\rm WR} = 10.31\pm0.45 M_\odot$ and $M_{\rm O} = 29.27\pm1.14 M_{\odot}$. We also include a discussion of the evolutionary history of this system from the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) model grid to show that this WR star likely formed primarily through mass loss in the stellar winds, with only a moderate amount of mass lost or transferred through binary interactions.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Ethnic differences in the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical monitoring and hospitalisations for non-COVID conditions in England: a population-based, observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare and may have impacted ethnic inequalities in healthcare. We aimed to describe the impact of pandemic-related disruption on ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospital admissions for non-COVID conditions in England. // Methods: In this population-based, observational cohort study we used primary care electronic health record data with linkage to hospital episode statistics data and mortality data within OpenSAFELY, a data analytics platform created, with approval of NHS England, to address urgent COVID-19 research questions. We included adults aged 18 years and over registered with a TPP practice between March 1, 2018, and April 30, 2022. We excluded those with missing age, sex, geographic region, or Index of Multiple Deprivation. We grouped ethnicity (exposure), into five categories: White, Asian, Black, Other, and Mixed. We used interrupted time-series regression to estimate ethnic differences in clinical monitoring frequency (blood pressure and Hba1c measurements, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma annual reviews) before and after March 23, 2020. We used multivariable Cox regression to quantify ethnic differences in hospitalisations related to diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental health before and after March 23, 2020. // Findings: Of 33,510,937 registered with a GP as of 1st January 2020, 19,064,019 were adults, alive and registered for at least 3 months, 3,010,751 met the exclusion criteria and 1,122,912 were missing ethnicity. This resulted in 14,930,356 adults with known ethnicity (92% of sample): 86.6% were White, 7.3% Asian, 2.6% Black, 1.4% Mixed ethnicity, and 2.2% Other ethnicities. Clinical monitoring did not return to pre-pandemic levels for any ethnic group. Ethnic differences were apparent pre-pandemic, except for diabetes monitoring, and remained unchanged, except for blood pressure monitoring in those with mental health conditions where differences narrowed during the pandemic. For those of Black ethnicity, there were seven additional admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis per month during the pandemic, and relative ethnic differences narrowed during the pandemic compared to the White ethnic group (Pre-pandemic hazard ratio (HR): 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41, 0.60, Pandemic HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.87). There was increased admissions for heart failure during the pandemic for all ethnic groups, though highest in those of White ethnicity (heart failure risk difference: 5.4). Relatively, ethnic differences narrowed for heart failure admission in those of Asian (Pre-pandemic HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.49, 1.64, Pandemic HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19, 1.29) and Black ethnicity (Pre-pandemic HR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.53, Pandemic HR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.09, 1.25) compared with White ethnicity. For other outcomes the pandemic had minimal impact on ethnic differences. // Interpretation: Our study suggests that ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospitalisations remained largely unchanged during the pandemic for most conditions. Key exceptions were hospitalisations for diabetic ketoacidosis and heart failure, which warrant further investigation to understand the causes