Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro-area inflation

We analyze the interaction among the common and country specific components for the inflation rates in twelve euro area countries through a factor model with time varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen over time and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to the idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis, is broadly a common phenomenon, since no significant cross country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks

Learner autonomy in developing countries

Learner autonomy may have special relevance now in developing countries, where a dissonance often exists between what formal education offers and what many learners want or need. Globalization and its technologies are providing new means of accessing knowledge, but school language lessons remain largely unchanged. Almost by default, successful language learners in developing country contexts are autonomous learners who can exploit out-of-school resources, while some of the most effective pedagogy involves promoting autonomy as a means of confronting low-resource challenges. This chapter argues for more research into both these phenomena, in order to increase understanding of them and to enable identification of principles for practice. It also emphasizes the need for such research to be conducted with and by local teachers and learners

Dynamic biospeckle analysis, a new tool for the fast screening of plant nematicide selectivity

Background: Plant feeding, free-living nematodes cause extensive damage to plant roots by direct feeding and, in the case of some trichodorid and longidorid species, through the transmission of viruses. Developing more environmentally friendly, target-specific nematicides is currently impeded by slow and laborious methods of toxicity testing. Here, we developed a bioactivity assay based on the dynamics of light 'speckle' generated by living cells and we demonstrate its application by assessing chemicals' toxicity to different nematode trophic groups.Results: Free-living nematode populations extracted from soil were exposed to methanol and phenyl isothiocyanate (PEITC). Biospeckle analysis revealed differing behavioural responses as a function of nematode feeding groups. Trichodorus nematodes were less sensitive than were bacterial feeding nematodes or non-trichodorid plant feeding nematodes. Following 24 h of exposure to PEITC, bioactivity significantly decreased for plant and bacterial feeders but not for Trichodorus nematodes. Decreases in movement for plant and bacterial feeders in the presence of PEITC also led to measurable changes to the morphology of biospeckle patterns.Conclusions: Biospeckle analysis can be used to accelerate the screening of nematode bioactivity, thereby providing a fast way of testing the specificity of potential nematicidal compounds. With nematodes' distinctive movement and activity levels being visible in the biospeckle pattern, the technique has potential to screen the behavioural responses of diverse trophic nematode communities. The method discriminates both behavioural responses, morphological traits and activity levels and hence could be used to assess the specificity of nematicidal compounds.</p

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas the results for four-quarter-ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general are mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN PENYAKIT HIPERTENSI PADA MASYARAKAT DI WILAYAH KERJA PUSKESMAS MINANGA KOTA MANADO

Hipertensi termasuk dalam kategori Penyakit Tidak Menular (PTM), hipertensi saat ini masih menjadi masalah di bidang kesehatan dan sering ditemukan pada tempat pelayanan kesehatan primer yaitu puskesmas. Dinas Kesehatan Kota Manado (2019) menjelaskan bahwa penyakit hipertensi termasuk dalam 10 penyakit  umum tertinggi di Sulawesi Utara, sedangkan dalam kategori PTM hipertensi berada di urutan teratas. Puskesmas Minanga tercatat merupakan salah satu Puskesmas dengan jumlah kasus kejadian hipertensi paling menonjol di Kota Manado. Ttujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan penyakit hipertensi pada masyarakat di wilayah kerja Puskesmas Minanga. Jenis penelitian yang digunakan yaitu Cross Sectional Study (Studi Potong Lintang). Teknik yang digunakan dalam pengambilan sampel yaitu purposive sampling dengan besaran jumlah sampel sebanyak 94 responden yang diambil dari masyarakat di wilayah kerja Puskesmas Minanga. Dari hasil perhitungan uji analisis statistik dengan menggunakan uji regresi logistik menunjukkan adanya hubungan antara variabel umur, stres, dan obesitas terhadap penyakit hipertensi pada masyarakat di wilayah kerja Puskesmas Minanga setelah nilai signifikan ketiga variabel tersebut lebih rendah dari nilai α yaitu 0,05. Sedangkan untuk variabel jenis kelamin, kebiasaan merokok, konsumsi alkohol tidak ditemukan adanya hubungan dengan penyakit hipertensi pada masyarakat di wilayah kerja Puskesmas Minanga karena nilai signifikan variabel melebihi nilai α yaitu 0,05. Kata Kunci: Faktor-Faktor, Hipertensi ABSTRACTHypertension is included in the category of Non-Communicable Diseases, hypertension is currently a problem in the health sector and is often found in primary health care centers like Public Health Center. Manado City Health Office (2019) explained that hypertension was among the 10 highest common diseases in North Sulawesi, while hypertension was in the top rank of Non-Communicable Diseases. Minanga Public Health Center is recorded as one of the Public Health Center’s with the most prominent cases of hypertension in Manado. This study aims to determine the factors associated with hypertension in the community in the Minanga Community Health Center. The type of research used is the Cross Sectional Study. The technique used in sampling is purposive sampling with a sample reach 94 respondents taken from the community in the Minanga Community Health Center. From the results of the calculation of statistical analysis tests using linear regression tests showed a relationship between the variables of age, stress, and obesity to hypertension in the community in the Minanga Health Center working area after the significant values of the variables are lower than the α value of 0.05. As for the variable of gender, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, there was no association with hypertension in the community in the Minanga Health Center working area because the significant value of the variables exceeded the α value of 0.05. Keywords: Factors, Hypertensio

How to increase technology transfers to developing countries: a synthesis of the evidence

The existing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has failed to deliver the rate of low-carbon technology transfer (TT) required to curb GHG emissions in developing countries. This failure has exposed the limitations of universalism and renewed interest in bilateral approaches to TT. Gaps are identified in the UNFCCC approach to climate change TT: missing links between international institutions and the national enabling environments that encourage private investment; a non-differentiated approach for (developing) country and technology characteristics; and a lack of clear measurements of the volume and effectiveness of TTs. Evidence from econometric literature and business experience on climate change TT is reviewed, so as to address the identified pitfalls of the UNFCCC process. Strengths and weaknesses of different methodological approaches are highlighted. International policy recommendations are offered aimed at improving the level of emission reductions achieved through TT

Laterality of a second player position affects lateral deviation of basketball shooting

Asymmetrically placed visual distractors are known to cause a lateral bias in the execution of a movement directed toward a target. The aim of the present experiment was to verify if the trajectory of the ball and the trajectory of the jump for a basketshot can be affected by the sole position of a second player, who stays in front of the shooting player in one of three possible positions (centre, left or right) but too far to physically interfere with the shot. Young basketball players were asked to perform 60 shots at 6.25 m from a regular basket, with or without a second player staying in front of them in, alternately, a centre, left or right position. A computerised system measured the angular deviation of the jump direction from the vertical direction and the lateral deviation of the ball trajectory from the midline. The results showed that both the jump direction and the entry position of the ball deviated toward the opposite side from the second player’s side; however, these effects were too small to significantly affect the mean goal percentage. This result confirms that some placements of the players can have an effect as visual distractors. Further studies are necessary to find what game conditions can make such distractors harmful for the athletic performance

Attempts to Image the Early Inflammatory Response during Infection with the Lymphatic Filarial Nematode Brugia pahangi in a Mouse Model

Helminth parasites remain a major constraint upon human health and well-being in many parts of the world. Treatment of these infections relies upon a very small number of therapeutics, most of which were originally developed for use in animal health. A lack of high throughput screening systems, together with limitations of available animal models, has restricted the development of novel chemotherapeutics. This is particularly so for filarial nematodes, which are long-lived parasites with a complex cycle of development. In this paper, we describe attempts to visualise the immune response elicited by filarial parasites in infected mice using a non-invasive bioluminescence imaging reagent, luminol, our aim being to determine whether such a model could be developed to discriminate between live and dead worms for in vivo compound screening. We show that while imaging can detect the immune response elicited by early stages of infection with L3, it was unable to detect the presence of adult worms or, indeed, later stages of infection with L3, despite the presence of worms within the lymphatic system of infected animals. In the future, more specific reagents that detect secreted products of adult worms may be required for developing screens based upon live imaging of infected animals

Lie for me: How empathy, alexithymia and emotional intelligence influence the ability to conform facial expression to a prosocial untrue verbal message

The aim of this work was to investigate the association between emotional variables (empathy, emotional intelligence, alexithymia) and lying skills. The hypothesis was that a higher emotional competence was associated to a better ability to lie. In an experimental setting, thirty-four participants were videotaped in two separate session: The first in which they were telling the truth and the second in which, motivated by a social and empathetical intention, they were lying about some emotionally arousing images they viewed. Moreover, all participant filled three self-report questionnaires: The 20-Item Toronto Alexithymia Scale, The Interpersonal Reactivity Index and The Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire Short Form. The coding of facial responses was carried out using the Facial Action Coding System. The findings suggested that emotional competence is associated with the ability to lie and to conform facial expression to a prosocial untrue statement. Conversely, individuals with higher levels of alexithymia and lower emotional ability manifested more marker of discomfort as facial manipulators in lying, other than inconsistencies in verbal/nonverbal messages even telling the truth, probably due to their difficulties to identify and express emotions