The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.We thank all colleagues involved in the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS) for fruitful discussions. In particular, John Walsh is acknowledged for his constructive comments on the manuscript. AFS has been sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and the Cryosphere project (WCRP-CliC), the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). The work for this paper has been supported by the Academy of Finland (contracts 259537 and 283101), the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/J019585/1), the US National Science Foundation grant ARC-1023592 and the Program “Arctic” and the Basic Research Program of the Presidium Russian Academy of Sciences. NCAR is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. We gratefully acknowledge the project coordination and meeting support of Jenny Baeseman and Gwenaelle Hamon at the CliC International Project Office. No new data were applied in the manuscript. Data applied for Figures 2 and 3 are available from the JRA-55 archive at http://jra. kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en. html#usage

The Instrumental Variable Method to Study Self-Selection Mechanism: A Case of Influenza Vaccination

ABSTRACTObjectiveTo assess whether estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in reducing rates of hospitalizations and all-cause mortality derived from cross-sectional data could be improved by applying the instrumental variable (IV) method to data representing the community-dwelling elderly population in the United States in order to adjust for self-selection bias.MethodsSecondary data analysis, using the 1996–97 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data. First, using single-equation probit regressions this study analyzed influenza-related hospitalization and death due to all causes predicted by vaccination status, which was measured by claims or survey data. Second, to adjust for potential self-selection of the vaccine receipt, for example, higher vaccination rates among high-risk individuals, bivariate probit (BVP) models and two-stage least squares (2SLS) models were employed. The IV was having either arthritis or gout.ResultsIn single-equation probit models, vaccination appeared to be ineffective or even to increase the probability of adverse outcomes. Based on BVP and 2SLS models, vaccination was demonstrated to be effective in reducing influenza-related hospitalization by at least 31%. The BVP model results implied significant self-selection in the single-equation probit models.ConclusionsAdjusting for self-selection, BVP analyses yielded vaccine effectiveness estimates for a nationally representative cross-sectional sample of the community-dwelling elderly population that are consistent with previous estimates based on randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, and meta-analyses. This result suggests that analyses with 2SLS and BVP in particular may be useful for the analysis of observational data regarding prevention in which self-selection is an important potential source of bias

EID and other technological advances in small ruminant research

Electronic identification (EID) was investigated in the early 1980s to accurately monitor and track farm livestock movements from one holding to another. Within Europe, legislation governing traceability now requires the identification and registration of most livestock species. In the UK, EID became a mandatory requirement for sheep identification in 2010. Whilst all farmers EID-tag their animals, the potential for using EID technology to improve animal performance is scarcely exploited by small ruminant farmers in more extensive conditions. This article presents findings from studies exploring the possibilities of applying EID technology in small ruminant farming systems, particularly in extensive conditions

Precision worm control in grazing lambs by targeting group treatment based on performance of sentinels

Given the economic impact of gastrointestinal nematode infection on livestock farming worldwide, and increasing anthelmintic resistance, it is imperative to develop practical, efficient and sustainable control strategies. Targeted selective treatment (TST), whereby anthelmintic treatments are administered to animals individually, based on selection criteria such as weight gain, has been shown to successfully maintain animal productivity whilst reducing the selection pressure for anthelmintic resistance and the economic cost of treatment in experimental and commercial settings. Despite the benefits of the TST approach, the equipment and time required to monitor animals individually make this strategy unsuitable for some farming enterprises. The sentinel group approach aims to maintain the benefits observed using TST whilst reducing these requirements. The study involved two experiments, each following a group of 80 lambs through their first grazing season. Anthelmintic treatment of the whole group was determined by monitoring the weight gain of identified sentinel lambs within it every 2 weeks: when 40% of the sentinel lambs failed to reach their weight gain targets, the whole group was treated. The sentinel lambs consisted of 45% of the group (n = 36) in experiment one and 20% (n = 16) in experiment two. A control group of 20 lambs was co-grazed with the main group during both experiments; in experiment one, the sentinel approach was compared with a TST approach, in which control lambs were treated on an individual basis in response to weight gain. In experiment two, the sentinel approach was compared with conventional prophylaxis, where all lambs in the control group were treated at strategic time points throughout the season (= strategic prophylactic treatment). The sentinel lambs were found to be representative of overall group performance regardless of the proportion of sentinels within the group: they recorded similar growth rates and reached weight gain targets simultaneously at each time point and overall. Live-weight gain was also similar between sentinel and control animals in both experiments. The findings of the current study suggest that monitoring sentinel lambs comprising 20% of a group of grazing lambs is sufficient to determine the need for anthelmintic treatment within the whole group, and that this approach maintains production in line with conventional or TST treatment regimes.</p

Complicity, trauma, love: an exploration of the experiences of LGBTQIA+ members from physical education spaces

The dearth of research with lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer/questioning, intersex, and asexual plus (LGBTQIA+) members within the physical education (PE) community, is of great concern; to some degree members of this community are invisible in the profession. The unfortunate reality is that PE is largely recognised as a heteronormative space with deeply rooted gendered practices that often go unacknowledged. In PE, the high visibility of one’s body, and the value placed on ‘select’ bodies, uncovers and reinforces society’s ‘isms’ such as ‘genderism’ and ‘heterosexism’. The constantly recycled dualistic understanding of these social identities has made PE an ‘exclusive’ space. Drawing on feminism and poststructuralism as our theoretical lens, this scholarly collaboration utilised a collaborative autoethnography from intersectional voices who identify as members of the LGBTQIA + community (a lesbian teacher, bi-sexual teacher educator, transgender student, and an ally), to explore our experiences from the PE space. Data were generated by several qualitative methods, initially from our individual narratives, which then ‘birthed’ poetry and visual artefacts. Our findings highlighted how complicity helps to maintain the heteronormative space, the never-ending nature of trauma, and the love that we experienced in various forms. Moreover, we all expressed a love of PE, even if/when it conflicts with our ‘bodies’. We leave this as an unfinished collaboration filled with hope and love; one that invites you to join us in solidarity to create a safe, welcoming space for every member of our community

Standing Balance and Spatiotemporal Aspects of Gait Are Impaired Upon Nocturnal Awakening in Healthy Late Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Study Objectives: Nocturnal awakenings may constitute a unique risk for falls among older adults. We describe differences in gait and balance between presleep and midsleep testing, and whether changes in the lighting environment during the midsleep testing further affect gait and balance. Methods: Twenty-one healthy, late middle-aged and older (64.7 ± 8.0 y) adults participated in this repeated-measures design consisting of four overnight laboratory stays. Each night, participants completed baseline visual acuity, gait, and balance testing. After a 2-h sleep opportunity, they were awakened for 13 min into one of four lighting conditions: very dim white light (\u3c 0.5 lux); dim white light (∼28.0 lux); dim orange light (∼28.0 lux); and white room-level light (∼200 lux). During this awakening, participants completed the same sequence of testing as at baseline. Results: Low-contrast visual acuity significantly decreased with decreasing illuminance conditions (F(3,45) = 98.26, p \u3c 0.001). Our a priori hypothesis was confirmed in that variation in stride velocity and center of pressure path length were significantly worse during the mid-sleep awakening compared to presleep baseline. Lighting conditions during the awakening, however, did not influence these parameters. In exploratory analyses, we found that over one-third of the tested gait and balance parameters were significantly worse at the midsleep awakening as compared to baseline (p \u3c 0.05), and nearly one-quarter had medium to large effect sizes (Cohen d ≥ 0.5; r ≥ 0.3). Conclusions: Balance and gait are impaired during midsleep awakenings among healthy, late middle-aged and older adults. This impairment is not ameliorated by exposure to room lighting, when compared to dim lights

The Water Utility Risk Integration Matrix: Demonstrating Potential for an Integrated Approach to Municipal Water Management

Abstract Municipal water utilities traditionally have been managed in isolation with little consideration of common factors affecting risk. An integrated approach to municipal water management has great potential for increasing the resilience of these systems under future uncertainties. In a recent survey conducted by the University of Guelph, respondents from various Canadian municipalities identified aging infrastructure, climate change and urbanization as the top three drivers of risk to water infrastructure. To demonstrate the potential for an integrated approach to risk management of water infrastructure, the Water Utility Risk Integration Matrix document was developed. This interactive document emphasizes commonalities across municipal water sectors and allows users to quickly access relevant information on the previously identified drivers of risk. Each chapter provides an overview of the impact each driver has on water treatment and distribution, sewage conveyance and treatment, combined sewer systems, and stormwater conveyance. The document provides direct access to additional details and external webpages containing statistics and examples for any implications of interest to the user. Relevant guidance and case studies are also incorporated into the document with links to external data sources. This document facilitates information gathering to assist in the widespread adoption of an integrated approach to risk management of municipal water utilities and provides a framework for further development of risk management initiatives