Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and human parturition (birth).Comment: Latex document of 22 pages including 6 ps figures, in press in PNA

Mild acetabular dysplasia and risk of osteoarthritis of the hip : a case-control study

Objective To determine whether mild variation in acetabular depth (AD) and shape is a risk factor for osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip. Methods The unaffected contralateral hip of patients with unilateral hip OA was compared with hips of asymptomatic controls without hip OA, derived from the Nottingham Genetics Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle case–control study. Standardised anteroposterior x-rays of the pelvis were used to measure centre edge (CE) angle and AD. Cut-off points for narrow CE angle and shallow AD were calculated from the control group (mean −1.96×SD). The relative risk of hip OA associated with each feature was estimated using OR and 95% CI and adjusted risks were calculated by logistic regression. Results In controls, both the CE angle and the AD were lower in the left hip than in the right hip. The CE angle related to age in both hips, and AD of the right hip was lower in men than in women. The contralateral unaffected hip in patients with unilateral hip OA had a decreased CE angle and AD compared with controls, irrespective of side. The lowest tertile of the CE angle in contralateral hips was associated with an eightfold risk of OA (aOR 8.06, 95% CI 4.87 to 13.35) and the lowest tertile of AD was associated with a 2.5-fold risk of OA (aOR 2.53, 95% CI 1.28 to 5.00). Significant increases in the risk of OA were also found as the CE angle and AD decreased

Anatomy of the binary black hole recoil: A multipolar analysis

We present a multipolar analysis of the gravitational recoil computed in recent numerical simulations of binary black hole (BH) coalescence, for both unequal masses and non-zero, non-precessing spins. We show that multipole moments up to and including l=4 are sufficient to accurately reproduce the final recoil velocity (within ~2%) and that only a few dominant modes contribute significantly to it (within ~5%). We describe how the relative amplitudes, and more importantly, the relative phases, of these few modes control the way in which the recoil builds up throughout the inspiral, merger, and ringdown phases. We also find that the numerical results can be reproduced by an ``effective Newtonian'' formula for the multipole moments obtained by replacing the radial separation in the Newtonian formulae with an effective radius computed from the numerical data. Beyond the merger, the numerical results are reproduced by a superposition of three Kerr quasi-normal modes (QNMs). Analytic formulae, obtained by expressing the multipole moments in terms of the fundamental QNMs of a Kerr BH, are able to explain the onset and amount of ``anti-kick'' for each of the simulations. Lastly, we apply this multipolar analysis to help explain the remarkable difference between the amplitudes of planar and non-planar kicks for equal-mass spinning black holes.Comment: 28 pages, 20 figures, submitted to PRD; v2: minor revisions from referee repor

Disease activity flares and pain flares in an early rheumatoid arthritis inception cohort; characteristics, antecedents and sequelae

© 2019 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: RA flares are common and disabling. They are described in terms of worsening inflammation but pain and inflammation are often discordant. To inform treatment decisions, we investigated whether inflammatory and pain flares are discrete entities. Methods: People from the Early RA Network (ERAN) cohort were assessed annually up to 11 years after presentation (n = 719, 3703 person-years of follow up). Flare events were defined in 2 different ways that were analysed in parallel; DAS28 or Pain Flares. DAS28 Flares satisfied OMERACT flare criteria of increases in DAS28 since the previous assessment (≥1.2 points if active RA or ≥ 0.6 points if inactive RA). A ≥ 4.8-point worsening of SF36-Bodily Pain score defined Pain Flares. The first documented episode of each of DAS28 and Pain Flare in each person was analysed. Subgroups within DAS28 and Pain Flares were determined using Latent Class Analysis. Clinical course was compared between flare subgroups. Results: DAS28 (45%) and Pain Flares (52%) were each common but usually discordant, with 60% of participants in DAS28 Flare not concurrently in Pain Flare, and 64% of those in Pain Flare not concurrently in DAS28 Flare. Three discrete DAS28 Flare subgroups were identified. One was characterised by increases in tender/swollen joint counts (14.4%), a second by increases in symptoms (13.1%), and a third displayed lower flare severity (72.5%). Two discrete Pain Flare subgroups were identified. One occurred following low disease activity and symptoms (88.6%), and the other occurred on the background of ongoing active disease and pain (11.4%). Despite the observed differences between DAS28 and Pain Flares, each was associated with increased disability which persisted beyond the flare episode. Conclusion: Flares are both common and heterogeneous in people with RA. Furthermore our findings indicate that for some patients there is a discordance between inflammation and pain in flare events. This discrete flare subgroups might reflect different underlying inflammation and pain mechanisms. Treatments addressing different mechanisms might be required to reduce persistent disability after DAS28 and Pain Flares.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Satellite data relay and platform locating in oceanography. Report of the In Situ Ocean Science Working Group

The present and future use of satellites to locate offshore platforms and relay data from in situ sensors to shore was examined. A system of the ARGOS type will satisfy the increasing demand for oceanographic information through data relay and platform location. The improved ship navigation provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS) will allow direct observation of currents from underway ships. Ocean systems are described and demand estimates on satellite systems are determined. The capabilities of the ARGOS system is assessed, including anticipated demand in the next decade

On Gravitational Waves in Spacetimes with a Nonvanishing Cosmological Constant

We study the effect of a cosmological constant $\Lambda$ on the propagation and detection of gravitational waves. To this purpose we investigate the linearised Einstein's equations with terms up to linear order in $\Lambda$ in a de Sitter and an anti-de Sitter background spacetime. In this framework the cosmological term does not induce changes in the polarization states of the waves, whereas the amplitude gets modified with terms depending on $\Lambda$. Moreover, if a source emits a periodic waveform, its periodicity as measured by a distant observer gets modified. These effects are, however, extremely tiny and thus well below the detectability by some twenty orders of magnitude within present gravitational wave detectors such as LIGO or future planned ones such as LISA.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Ultrasonic locating devices for central venous cannulation: meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES: To assess the evidence for the clinical effectiveness of ultrasound guided central venous cannulation. DATA SOURCES: 15 electronic bibliographic databases, covering biomedical, science, social science, health economics, and grey literature. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. POPULATIONS: Patients scheduled for central venous access. INTERVENTION REVIEWED: Guidance using real time two dimensional ultrasonography or Doppler needles and probes compared with the anatomical landmark method of cannulation. DATA EXTRACTION: Risk of failed catheter placement (primary outcome), risk of complications from placement, risk of failure on first attempt at placement, number of attempts to successful catheterisation, and time (seconds) to successful catheterisation. DATA SYNTHESIS: 18 trials (1646 participants) were identified. Compared with the landmark method, real time two dimensional ultrasound guidance for cannulating the internal jugular vein in adults was associated with a significantly lower failure rate both overall (relative risk 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.06 to 0.33) and on the first attempt (0.59, 0.39 to 0.88). Limited evidence favoured two dimensional ultrasound guidance for subclavian vein and femoral vein procedures in adults (0.14, 0.04 to 0.57 and 0.29, 0.07 to 1.21, respectively). Three studies in infants confirmed a higher success rate with two dimensional ultrasonography for internal jugular procedures (0.15, 0.03 to 0.64). Doppler guided cannulation of the internal jugular vein in adults was more successful than the landmark method (0.39, 0.17 to 0.92), but the landmark method was more successful for subclavian vein procedures (1.48, 1.03 to 2.14). No significant difference was found between these techniques for cannulation of the internal jugular vein in infants. An indirect comparison of relative risks suggested that two dimensional ultrasonography would be more successful than Doppler guidance for subclavian vein procedures in adults (0.09, 0.02 to 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence supports the use of two dimensional ultrasonography for central venous cannulation

Modeling kicks from the merger of generic black-hole binaries

Recent numerical relativistic results demonstrate that the merger of comparable-mass spinning black holes has a maximum ``recoil kick'' of up to \sim 4000 \kms. However the scaling of these recoil velocities with mass ratio is poorly understood. We present new runs showing that the maximum possible kick perpendicular to the orbital plane does not scale as $\sim\eta^2$ (where $\eta$ is the symmetric mass ratio), as previously proposed, but is more consistent with $\sim\eta^3$, at least for systems with low orbital precession. We discuss the effect of this dependence on galactic ejection scenarios and retention of intermediate-mass black holes in globular clusters.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 3 tables. Version published in Astrophys. J. Let