A Careful Examination of the Live Nation-Ticketmaster Merger

As great admirers of The Boss and as fans of live entertainment, we share in the popular dismay over rising ticket prices for live performances. But we have been asked as antitrust scholars to examine the proposed merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster, and we do so with the objectivity and honesty called for by The Boss’s quotes above. The proposed merger has been the target of aggressive attacks from several industry commentators and popular figures, but the legal and policy question is whether the transaction is at odds with the nation’s antitrust laws. One primary source of concern to critics is that Ticketmaster and Live Nation are two leading providers of ticket distribution services, and these critics argue that the merged entity would have a combined market share that is presumptively anticompetitive. We observe, however, that this transaction is taking place within a rapidly changing industry. The spread of Internet technologies has transformed the entertainment industry, and along with it the ticket distribution business such that a reliance on market shares based on historical sales is misleading. A growing number of venues, aided by a competitive bidding process that creates moments of focused competition, can now acquire the requisite capabilities to distribute tickets to their own events and can thus easily forgo reliance upon providers of outsourced distribution services. If self-distribution is an available and attractive option for venues, as it appears to be, then it is unlikely that even a monopolist provider of fully outsourced ticketing services could exercise market power. Ultimately, a proper assessment of the horizontal effects of this merger would have to weigh heavily the emerging role of Internet technologies in this dynamic business and the industry-wide trend towards self-distribution. The second category of arguments by critics opposing the merger rests on claims that vertical aspects of the transaction would produce anticompetitive effects. Indeed, Ticketmaster’s and Live Nation’s core businesses are in successive markets, and thus the proposed transaction is primarily a vertical merger, but there is broad agreement among economists and antitrust authorities that vertical mergers rarely introduce competitive concerns and are usually driven by efficiency motivations. This wealth of academic scholarship, which is reflected in current antitrust law, has not - from our vantage point - been properly incorporated into the public dialogue concerning the proposed merger. To the contrary, critics articulate concerns, including the fears that the merger would lead to the leveraging of market power and the foreclosure of downstream competition, that are refuted by accepted scholarship. Moreover, there are a number of specific efficiencies that, consistent with economic and organizational theory, are likely to emerge from a Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger and would be unlikely but for the companies’ integration. For these reasons, we submit this analysis in an effort to inform the debate with current economic and legal scholarship

The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas the results for four-quarter-ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general are mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises

Group Space Allowance Has Little Effect on Sow Health, Productivity, or Welfare in a Free-Access Stall System

Free-access stalls allow sows to choose the protection of a stall or use of a shared group space. This study investigated the effect of group space width, 0.91 (SS), 2.13 (IS), and 3.05 (LS) m, on the health, production, behavior, and welfare of gestating sows. Nine replications of 21 (N = 189) gestating sows were used. At gestational d 35.4 ± 2.3, the pregnant sows were distributed into 3 pens of 7 sows, where they remained until 104.6 ± 3.5 d. Each treatment pen had 7 free-access stalls and a group space that together provided 1.93 (SS), 2.68 (IS), or 3.24 (LS) m2/sow. Baseline measurements were obtained before mixing. Back fat depth, BW, BCS, and lameness were measured monthly, and skin lesions were scored weekly. Blood was collected monthly for hematological, immunological, and cortisol analyses. Sow behavior was video recorded continuously during the initial 4 d of treatment and 24 h every other week thereafter. Behavior was analyzed for location, posture, pen investigation, social contact, and aggression. Skin response to the mitogen concanavalin A (Con A) was tested at mean gestational d 106. Litter characteristics including size and weight were collected at birth and weaning. The data were analyzed using a mixed model. Multiple comparisons were adjusted with the Tukey-Kramer and Bejamini-Hochberg methods. Group space allowance had no effect on any measure of sow health, physiology, or production (P ≥ 0.10). Sows in the SS, IS, and LS pens spent 77.88% ± 3.88%, 66.02% ± 3.87%, and 63.64% ± 3.91%, respectively, of their time in the free-access stalls (P = 0.12). However, SS sows used the group space less than IS and LS sows (P = 0.01). Overall, pen investigatory behavior was not affected by group space allowance (P = 0.91). Sows in the LS pens spent more time in a social group than SS sows (P = 0.02), whereas sows in IS pens were intermediate to, but not different from, the other treatments (P ≥ 0.10). The size of the social groups was also affected by the group space allowance (P = 0.03), with SS sows forming smaller groups than LS sows; again, IS sows were intermediate to, but not different from, the other treatments. Although the group space allowance had no measurable impact on the health, physiology, or productivity of the sows, the lower group space use and social contact of the SS sows reduced the behavioral diversity benefits of group housing and may indicate an avoidance of social stressors or a lack of physical comfort in the smallest pens

Four theorems on the psychometric function

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, Δx. This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull "slope" parameter, β, can be approximated by [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the β of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and [Formula: see text] depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]. We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4-0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull β reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of β for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian

A 110,000-year History of Change in Continental Biogenic Emissions and Related Atmospheric Circulation Inferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Ice Core

The 110,000-year record of ammonium concentrations from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core provides the basis for an analysis of terrestrial biological production and atmospheric circulation patterns involved in the transport of biologically produced ammonium to the Greenland atmosphere. The directly measured concentration series was selected for analysis, rather than that of estimated ammonium flux, after a detailed analysis of the relationship among ice core glaciochemical concentrations and a high-resolution simultaneous record of snow accumulation from the GISP2 core. Analysis of the ammonium concentration series shows that maxima in background levels of ammonium in the Greenland atmosphere are strongly related to and synchronous with summer forcing associated with the precessional cycle of insolation. Minima in background levels, on the other hand, are delayed relative to minima in summer insolation at those times when ice volume is significant. The duration of these delays are similar in magnitude (≈6000 years) to other paleoclimatic responses to changes in ice volume. Decadal and centennial scale variation about background levels of ammonium concentration exhibit two modes of behavior when compared to a record of polar atmospheric circulation intensity. During warmer periods ammonium transport to Greenland is similar to present patterns. Under coldest conditions the low levels of ammonium transported to Greenland are the result of extreme southerly excursions of the predominantly zonal polar circulation. The rapid transitions (≈200 years) between these two climatic conditions appear to be associated with a critical volume or extent of the continental ice sheets

Grid-texture mechanisms in human vision:contrast detection of regular sparse micro-patterns requires specialist templates

Previous work has shown that human vision performs spatial integration of luminance contrast energy, where signals are squared and summed (with internal noise) over area at detection threshold. We tested that model here in an experiment using arrays of micro-pattern textures that varied in overall stimulus area and sparseness of their target elements, where the contrast of each element was normalised for sensitivity across the visual field. We found a power-law improvement in performance with stimulus area, and a decrease in sensitivity with sparseness. While the contrast integrator model performed well when target elements constituted 50–100% of the target area (replicating previous results), observers outperformed the model when texture elements were sparser than this. This result required the inclusion of further templates in our model, selective for grids of various regular texture densities. By assuming a MAX operation across these noisy mechanisms the model also accounted for the increase in the slope of the psychometric function that occurred as texture density decreased. Thus, for the first time, mechanisms that are selective for texture density have been revealed at contrast detection threshold. We suggest that these mechanisms have a role to play in the perception of visual textures

Low-level mediation of directionally specific motion after-effects: motion perception is not necessary

Previous psychophysical experiments with normal human observers have shown that adaptation to a moving dot stream causes directionally specific repulsion in the perceived angle of a subsequently viewed, moving probe. In this paper, we used a 2AFC task with roving pedestals to determine the conditions necessary and sufficient for producing directionally specific repulsion with compound adaptors, each ofwhich contains two oppositely moving, differently colored, component streams. Experiment 1 provides a demonstration of repulsion between single-component adaptors and probes moving at approximately 90° or 270°. In Experiment 2 oppositely moving dots in the adaptor were paired to preclude the appearance of motion. Nonetheless, repulsion remained strong when the angle betweeneach probe stream and one component was approximately 30°. In Experiment 3 adapting dot-pairs were kept stationary during their limited lifetimes. Their orientation content alone proved insufficient for producing repulsion. In Experiments 4-6 the angle between probe and both adapting components was approximately 90°or 270°. Directional repulsion was found when observers were asked to visually track one of the adapting components (Experiment 6), but not when observers were asked to attentionally track it (Experiment 5), nor while passively viewing the adaptor (Experiment 4). Our results are consistent with a low-level mechanism for motion adaptation. It is not selective for stimulus color and it is not susceptible to attentional modulation.The most likely cortical locus of adaptation is area V1

Clinical evaluation of the C-MAC D-Blade videolaryngoscope in severely obese patients: a pilot study

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The Effect of Interocular Phase Difference on Perceived Contrast

Binocular vision is traditionally treated as two processes: the fusion of similar images, and the interocular suppression of dissimilar images (e.g. binocular rivalry). Recent work has demonstrated that interocular suppression is phase-insensitive, whereas binocular summation occurs only when stimuli are in phase. But how do these processes affect our perception of binocular contrast? We measured perceived contrast using a matching paradigm for a wide range of interocular phase offsets (0–180°) and matching contrasts (2–32%). Our results revealed a complex interaction between contrast and interocular phase. At low contrasts, perceived contrast reduced monotonically with increasing phase offset, by up to a factor of 1.6. At higher contrasts the pattern was non-monotonic: perceived contrast was veridical for in-phase and antiphase conditions, and monocular presentation, but increased a little at intermediate phase angles. These findings challenge a recent model in which contrast perception is phase-invariant. The results were predicted by a binocular contrast gain control model. The model involves monocular gain controls with interocular suppression from positive and negative phase channels, followed by summation across eyes and then across space. Importantly, this model—applied to conditions with vertical disparity—has only a single (zero) disparity channel and embodies both fusion and suppression processes within a single framework